Emerging trends as Indian election approaches end

Polling in 70 percent of the total of 543 seats in India's parliamentary election is over. After polling began on April 11, voters have chosen their representatives for 373 constituencies in four phases. The voting in the remaining seats will be held in the next three phases between May 6 and 19. Even though results will be out only on May 23, every Indian home, tea stall, restaurant and hotel besides the political circles are abuzz with discussions and speculations as to how the main political parties have fared so far, breaking down their analyses phase-wise, region-wise and even constituency-wise. The voter turnout in the four phases of the election has largely remained near that of the previous national polls (66.44 percent) five years ago, with just a little variation.    

The first phase of polling set the tone and momentum for the subsequent phases and that is why political parties had anxiously waited for the feedback on the voters' mood that had prevailed on April 11. What the parties wanted most was to find out what were the issues that had captured the imagination of the voters and to what extent. The subsequent phases of polling were mainly about either building on or losing that momentum. In a country of India's size and with its hugely complex web of castes, religions and a myriad of issues, predicting the outcome is fraught with risks. All the same, there is a general agreement on certain broad trends that have emerged.

One, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has loomed large over the electoral scenario in a manner not seen since the time of Indira Gandhi. The Bharatiya Janata Party is entirely relying on Modi's personal image of an honest and decisive leader and his communication skills to overcome the anti-incumbency challenge which in many cases becomes a double burden due to the party being in power in several states. It is true that farm sector crisis, lack of adequate number of jobs and the economic disruptions caused by demonetisation and introduction of a countrywide, uniform Goods and Services Tax are bedevilling the ruling party. Besides, there is resentment against many BJP lawmakers in terms of development work in their constituencies. The party has sensed this and did not give re-nomination to many of its sitting lawmakers, particularly in tribal areas, in a bid to soften up the voters' disenchantment.

If reports coming in from the hinterland, including villages and small towns, are anything to go by, although people are unhappy with the BJP government's report card and their lawmakers' failings at the local level in terms of development and livelihood issues, they appear to back Modi and are still looking up to him to turn things around for the better. One common refrain is that there is not a single political party which fulfils all its electoral promises, and so Modi alone cannot be faulted for not delivering on several promises in the last five years. But can Modi's popularity blunt anti-incumbency and to what extent? Can the Modi factor help his party overcome cumulative discontent in constituencies? If it can't, then the BJP could be in real trouble. If anti-incumbency trumps the BJP's national security campaign narrative, the saffron party has reasons to worry.

Then there are some other imponderables the BJP has to face. One is the presence of powerful regional parties which cannot be just wished away—Samajwadi Party-Bahujan Samaj Party-Rashtriya Lok Dal in Uttar Pradesh, Trinamool Congress in West Bengal, Rashtriya Janata Dal in Bihar, Nationalist Congress Party in Maharashtra, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam in Tamil Nadu and Janata Dal (S) in Karnataka. A major challenge the BJP faces in UP is the potential of the social combination presented by SP, BSP and RLD by seeking to unite Jatavs (the caste to which BSP chief Mayawati belongs), Yadavs (the caste of SP leader Akhilesh Yadav) and Jats (represented by RLD chief Ajit Singh) despite animosities among themselves.

The states mentioned above together have 270 Lok Sabha seats. In the 2014 national polls in UP and the state assembly polls there in 2014, the BJP swept most of the states riding on a consolidation of Hindu votes cutting across caste divides following the communal riots in Muzaffarnagar in 2013. But that kind of wave is missing this time around and the BJP may find it difficult to counter the SP-BSP-RLD combine. Of course, the SP-BSP-RLD combine's success will depend largely on their ability to transfer their respective traditional vote banks—Yadavs, Dalits, Muslims and Jats, respectively. But that does not mean Jatavs, Jats and Yadavs would back the BJP.

The biggest challenge to the BJP's comeback to power with a clear majority (272 seats) in the 543-member Lok Sabha is how to make up for the steep shortfall in seats it is likely to face not only in Uttar Pradesh, which sends the largest number of Lok Sabha lawmakers (80), but also in nearby Hindi-speaking heartland states Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, after having reached the saturation point by winning almost all the seats five years ago. The real challenge for the BJP in these states is not so much to hold on to its dominance but to minimise the losses, because the Congress is going all out to not allow any slackening of the momentum it got in the heartland states by winning assembly polls there less than six months ago.

The party needs to win seats in new grounds like West Bengal, Odisha, Arunachal Pradesh, Tripura, Assam and the five southern states: Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Kerala, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. Barring Karnataka, the other four southern states could prove to be a slippery path for the BJP because it has very little presence in them, and in Tamil Nadu it has tied up with the anti-incumbency-afflicted and factional feud-ridden AIADMK. By all accounts, the DMK looks certain to walk away with most of Tamil Nadu's 39 seats, the fifth highest after UP, Maharashtra, West Bengal and Bihar.

The saffron party's hopes of cashing in on the 25 seats in the North East have run into complications due to its stand on Citizenship Amendment Bill. Assuming the BJP does make gains in West Bengal, Odisha and the North East, the question is, will it be enough to cover the loss of seats it may suffer in the other big states?  

On the other hand, the Congress can look forward to gains in Kerala, Karnataka and the three heartland states. It also hopes that its Tamil Nadu ally DMK sweeps the state and thwart the BJP and its partner AIADMK. But reports signal that the Congress may not be able to gain as much from the momentum of its victory in the heartland states as it wanted to, because of the tardy implementation of the party's farm loan waiver promise which propelled it to power there in December. The Congress too has run up against regional parties like Trinamool Congress, BJD, TDP and YSR Congress and Telangana Rashtra Samithi. 

Keeping all the above-mentioned trends in mind, the BJP faces another stern test when polling is held in the remaining three phases on May 6, 13 and 19. The party cannot afford to lose many seats in these phases, which will cover 170 seats. Even a small fall in seats in these phases could make the BJP heavily dependent on its alliance partners. And if the loss is bigger for the BJP, it could make the race for power wide open.

Pallab Bhattacharya is a special correspondent at The Daily Star.