Celebrating people’s uprisings in Algeria and Sudan

The vigil of hundreds and thousands of peaceful protesters on the streets of Algeria and Sudan speaks of the same sense of collective disenfranchisement, juxtaposed with a desperate optimism, that lit the signal fires of change in Egypt's Tahrir Square in 2011. 

It took 18 days for the dramatic fall of Hosni Mubarak to play out. The winds of the Arab Spring, freshly minted, were now free to usher in a new era of democracy and prosperity for Egypt, building a free, fair and equitable society. It was, of course, a false dawn. The new democratically elected government of Mohamed Morsi lasted a little more than a year.

While Morsi's short reign was marred by criticisms and failures, including economic mismanagement and his government's inability to address fuel shortages, what sealed Morsi's fate was his attempt to Islamise the constitution of Egypt and his government's pro-Palestine foreign policy guided by the ideals of the Muslim Brotherhood. The radical Sunni-Islamist Muslim Brotherhood's anti-Zionist ideology wasn't meant to have gone down well with the West, and no wonder America fell short of calling the military coup in Egypt, a coup.

The fall of the democratically elected Muslim Brotherhood to the hands of the military in 2014 resembles, to a large extent, the fall of another party in North Africa in the face of military coercion two decades ago. The 1992 military coup in Algeria, which decimated the Islamic Salvation Front (FIS) after the party's victory in the initial legislative balloting, in the first multi-party national election since the country's independence in 1962, was not surprising either, given that FIS shared the religious and political ideologies of the Muslim Brotherhood.

The mighty United States only expressed "concern" about the military's action in Algeria, without condemning the coup—a similar tone the US had adopted after the military coup staged in Egypt to oust Morsi. And despite speculations of a slash in US aid to Egypt in the aftermath of the coup d'état, the aid flow from America remained constant at USD 1.45 billion in 2014 and USD 1.5 billion in 2015, with USD 1.3 billion going into Foreign Military Financing (FMF) on both years, and the rest to the Economic Support Fund (ESF).

And amidst Barrack Obama's call "on the Egyptian military to move quickly and responsibly to return full authority back to a democratically elected civilian government as soon as possible through an inclusive and transparent process," Egypt's former Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, took the reins of the country in 2014, after a "landslide" victory in the presidential election. And now, an amendment referendum—passed with an incredible 89 percent yea's—has cleared the constitutional path for the incumbent to remain in power potentially till 2030, while concentrating even more state power in his person.

While consolidating his power base at home, Mr el-Sisi has not been neglecting his duty as the current Chair of the African Union. On April 23, the day Egyptian officials were busy declaring the results of the referendum, the victorious president Mr el-Sisi was hosting an emergency summit of the African leaders to find solutions to the ongoing crises in neighbouring Libya and Sudan. Emerging from the summit, Sisi deadpanned the media: the African Union leaders have agreed to address the crisis in Sudan by working to "quickly restore the constitutional system through a political democratic process led and managed by the Sudanese themselves."

Thanks to the caution adopted by the Sudanese military, talks with the civilian protesters are still going on, regarding the formation of a civilian transition governing council. Happily, it seems the Sudanese military were more wont to pay heed to Mr Sisi's words, and not his actions.

The current military hierarchy and interim government in Algeria have been demonstrating similar caution, as peaceful demonstrations are ongoing in Algiers, calling for the removal of the ruling elites, including the current head of the interim ruling body, Abdelkader Bensalah. The military, unlike in similar situations in other countries, did not disperse the demonstrators, and if anything, the Algerian army chief Lieutenant-General Ahmed Gaed Salah promised to persecute the corrupt politicians and their allies, and followed through on his words with arrests of five business tycoons, including the wealthiest businessman in the country. Earlier in April, the incapacitated Abdelaziz Bouteflika, Algeria's president of 20 years, had stepped down following protests against his decision to run for a fifth term in office.

Of course, military intervention—beneficial, well-intentioned or otherwise—cannot be a prescription for the development of resilient democratic institutions for any nation. Yet the protests in Sudan and Algeria have as much to do with economic pragmatism as with political idealism.

The protests come at a time when both countries are reeling from the economic fallout from the oil crash of 2014. Both countries survive on their oil revenues, with oil and gas revenues accounting for 90 percent of Algeria's export earnings, and the oil bust of 2014 had hit both countries hard. In fact, Sudan had been hit earlier in 2011, when its oil revenues hit a rock bottom after the secession of its oil-rich south—its revenues falling down to a bare one percent equivalent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2017 from an almost 16 percent in 2007. The protests in Sudan were initially sparked, in December last year, by the tripling of bread prices in the city of Atbara which soon spread to other parts of the country, including the capital Khartoum, where the protests took on a more revolutionary fervour.

Increased military expenditure in the face of economic meltdown—according to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, military expenditure in Sudan and Algeria, as a share of total government expenditure, were among the highest in the world in 2017—and consequently falling public investments are perhaps the key points of discontent that have led to the silent majority of both nations finding their voice.

If there is anything the Arab Spring has shown us, it is perhaps this: it is not enough for the silent majority to find their voice to be able to affect meaningful change. The masses might be able to topple a government, but dismantling exploitative economic and political institutions, built and nurtured over decades by foreign powers, and replacing them with inclusive ones, is an entirely different kettle.

Building inclusive societies in these nations would require, among other things, goodwill and concerted efforts of all the stakeholders, both at home and around the globe. It would also require compromises, for all sides. Will the people of Sudan and Algeria, the ruling elites, and the leaders of the free world find the necessary conviction to accept painful short-term disruptions to build a more equitable future?

Tasneem Tayeb works for The Daily Star. She can be reached through her Twitter handle: @TayebTasneem.