America's fraught midterm polls
Never has America been so bitterly polarised, nor midterm congressional and state gubernatorial polls aroused such frenzied partisan feelings. For both Democrats and the Republicans, this electoral battle has enormous portents. The early voting turnout (some states allow this) has been of an unprecedentedly high level, demonstrating how serious the stakes are in this election. For the Democratic Party in particular, it is no less than an existential fight.
If the Republicans retain control of both the House and the Senate, the Democrats will be in an utterly forlorn plight. The troubling agenda that President Trump has been pushing with maniacal zeal—anti immigration moves, tax cut tilted towards the wealthy, dismantling insurance coverage for people with pre-existing conditions, a virulent nativism, ending birth-right citizenship, and so forth—and will proceed completely unchecked.
In a broader and more critical sense, America's traditional ethos of nurturing a tolerant inclusive society where people of diverse ethnic and religious background can live peacefully and harmoniously (already under threat in Trump's first two years of presidency) will be grievously imperilled.
The consequence of the midterm will transcend America's frontiers. This country has been a beacon of democracy and rule-based polity, and in the past served as a template and inspiration for other nations aspiring to construct a healthy democracy. Sadly, in recent times America's appeal has frayed, especially with the kind of trends taking root under Trump's leadership. The president of America wields such awesome power that his influence, not only in his domestic sphere but in the broader global arena. We have seen how he has already shaken up the long-established practices. No American president before has been known to behave in this manner. Never before did any president call the media "the enemy of the people". Indeed, they have usually been a force for stability and inclusiveness.
The Economist magazine said, with good reason that the failure of the Democrats to win control of at least one of either the House or the Senate bode ill for America's democratic future. Democracy's health requires that debates be based on truth and evidence, not made up stuff and creation of false and vacuous issues.
Until the last couple of weeks or so, the midterm electoral scene did not look promising for the Democrats. After the party lost the presidential election in 2016, demoralisation seemed to set in and the Democrats seemed to lose their way. There has been an internal rift between the left wing and the centrist elements. There has not been any figure showing promise of inspiring leadership. If the party achieves success in this election, it faces a big challenge for reorganisation and framing a purposeful agenda.
The midterm outlook for the Democrats began to brighten only in the last few weeks. The shooting of 11 worshippers in a synagogue in Pittsburgh on the heels of parcel bomb threats against a number of prominent Democrats were catalysts. No one accused the president directly, but there was a tide of criticism in the media that the targeted people of bomb threats were those whom he berated and dehumanised. It was as if he had created a permissive climate.
It needs to be pointed out that when the Republican dominated Senate confirmed the appointment of Brett Kavanaugh, accused of harassing a woman, to the Supreme Court after a bitter debate in the judiciary committee, women were deeply alienated. America's top lawyers and law professors objected to this appointment. Some remarks Kavanaugh made during his hearing also blatantly showed his hostility to the Democrats. It was said by his critics that his openly expressed political bias disqualified him to be a Supreme Court judge. The #MeToo women's movement launched into a furious agitation against the Republicans. It is now obvious that a swathe of women, who voted for Trump in 2016, will shift to the Democrats in the midterm polls. In recent days, there is a widespread sense in the media that just ahead of the November 6 polls, a blue (Democratic) wave has begun. How reliable this view is will only be known on election day.
In this midterm, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 35 of the 100 seats of Senate and 39 state gubernatorial seats will be in play. Predictions are that the Democrats will take control of the House and to do that they need to win back 23 seats. Republicans look likely to retain, and perhaps even enhance, their current 51/49 majority in Senate. For Democrats, even retrieving the house will mean that the President will be under some check. A point to note is that a Democratic House will protect the ongoing investigation of special counsel Robert Mueller into Russian collusion with the Trump campaign in 2016 elections and possible obstruction of justice by Trump.
A Democratic House may also demand that Trump reveal his tax returns—something he has not done. There are some other areas where the House can make trouble for the President. Time will reveal if they opt for a deal making approach on issues where there is shared interest. Some of these areas are healthcare, infrastructure development etc.
If the Democrats do well in the election of the state Governors, and win in some of the swing states like Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Minnesota, it could bode ill for Trump's 2020 re-election chances. The Governors have a lot power in shaping politics in their states. They can redraw the voting districts, thereby reversing the advantage the Republicans created for themselves.
If the Republicans retain both the House and the Senate, it will be an affirmation of the agenda that President Trump is pushing. His already strong grip over the Republican party will be further strengthened. There is a consensus among analysts that he will not change his ways until he faces consequences that hurt him.
The midterm elections will show which direction American politics takes. It will be a test of whether Americans want to restore civility, ethics, inclusiveness and humanity that have been the historic and defining features of the country's ethos.
Ziaus Shams Chowdhury is a former ambassador.