Karnataka call for India
What it means for the country's upcoming general elections
The template for India's next general elections due early next year appears to have been set. It is going to be Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party versus the entire opposition. To keep the BJP at bay, the Congress is ready to play second fiddle to a regional party. These are the two biggest messages emanating from the swiftness with which the main opposition, Congress party headed by Rahul Gandhi, agreed to back Janata Dal (Secular) in a bid to stop BJP which emerged as the single largest party in the legislative assembly elections in the key southern state of Karnataka that produced a fractured mandate.
The BJP with 104 seats in the 224-member state legislature fell nine short of simple majority while Congress was in second spot with 78 seats followed by JD(S) with 37. Taken together, Congress and JD(S) had the arithmetic to form the new government in Karnataka. Congress said that it had lost the mandate to form government again. The JD(S), with presence in just 15 percent of the assembly, sensed a chance to return to power in the state. The common thread between the two post-poll allies, who fought the May 12 elections against each other with Rahul Gandhi going to the extent of accusing JD(S) of being BJP's "B team", is the rallying war cry of "stop BJP at any cost." That is the slogan that appears set to resonate across several regional parties across India and to cast the die in the run-up to the 2019 parliamentary polls.
Both Congress and JD(S) have gone on record saying that striking a post-poll alliance was a very hard decision for them. But they set aside the mutual bitterness of the past for a bigger political objective: to stonewall BJP. By quickly agreeing to support JD(S) to form the new government in Karnataka, the Congress tried to make the best out of its defeat in the state polls. It has sent a message loud and clear: Congress is ready to join hands with all anti-BJP forces and even play a secondary role for a much bigger cause—to stop the BJP juggernaut which has been winning almost all the state elections since Modi assumed power in May 2014.
This is a lesson the Congress has been reluctant to admit publicly so far even though a section of the party has rooted for alliance with regional parties like Nationalist Congress Party in the west, Trinamool Congress and Rashtriya Janata Dal in the east, Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party in the north, DMK, Telangana Rashtra Samithi and Telugu Desam Party in the south besides the Left parties, to take on BJP in the next general election.
Soon after the Karnataka verdict, some of the regional parties and the Left parties went on record asking the Congress to shed its "ego" and tie up with regional parties to put up a united front against BJP in 2019. The Karnataka poll outcome has given a big boost to regional parties which now argue that Congress should read the writing on the wall that its presence in the corridors of power has shrunk to just three of India's total of 29 states in the last four years and that Congress on its own cannot counter the BJP. In fact, the regional party leaders point out how Mayawati set aside years of hostility towards Samajwadi Party and joined hands with that party to successfully defeat the BJP in two by-elections in the politically key state of Uttar Pradesh a few months ago. Mayawati had also campaigned for JD(S) in Karnataka.
Soon after it became clear that no party is going to secure majority in Karnataka, many regional parties' top bosses, including Trinamool Congress Chief Mamata Banerjee, were in an overdrive to prod JD(S) supremo HD Deve Gowda to accept Congress support and form government in the state to keep BJP at bay. If JD(S) can form government in Karnataka despite finishing third with Congress backing, it gives heart to the aspirations of many regional parties that this model could be replicated at the national level if the next general elections throw up a fractured mandate. After all, India had in 1996-97 seen Inder Kumar Gujral and Deve Gowda, who belong to parties with very little national footprint, become prime ministers with outside support from Congress. There are some regional satraps like Bahujan Samaj Party Chief Mayawati and Trinamool Congress Chairperson Mamata Banerjee who are reportedly nursing prime ministerial aspirations.
Ironically, the Karnataka poll result came a few days after Rahul Gandhi, at a public function during campaigning in the state, had expressed his readiness to be the PM if the Congress got the required number. That was a clear indication that Congress was not willing to give up its position as the only alternative to BJP and its centrality in an all-India anti-BJP front.
The Karnataka mandate may have changed the Congress leadership's thinking. The party now seems ready to show flexibility to play second fiddle to regional parties with much lesser number of seats in order to stop the BJP. The regional parties contend that Congress, with its shrinking footprint across India, must realise that it is no longer in a position to be the natural anchor of an anti-BJP front at the national level.
By extending support to JD(S), the Congress signalled that it did not want to stand in the way of "stop BJP at any cost" campaign by majority of the regional parties. Congress does not now want to be isolated politically among anti-BJP forces in the run-up to the national elections at a time when efforts are on to foster greater unity among such forces. For that, much will depend on the success, or otherwise of the longevity, of the Congress-JD(S) coalition. It is a test case for opposition unity.
But for Congress, the challenge is not just stopping the BJP. The party must also decide how much it can compromise to whittle down its own pre-eminence vis-à-vis regional parties. Will the Congress agree to the regional parties' formula that it cedes political space in states where it is not strong enough to fight the BJP in favour of a particular regional party? Won't it come in the way of the Congress' own existing spheres of influence and future growth in those states? These are issues that may come up in the future. Right now, the motto of Congress and other opposition parties is "stop BJP." At least till the next general elections.
Pallab Bhattacharya is a special correspondent to The Daily Star.