How serious is the threat of a militant resurgence?

The recent spate of arrests following the suspected emergence of a new militant outfit and subsequent police raids have raised concerns about the resurgence of militancy in the country. On Monday, police took into custody 17 alleged militants after locals, with the help of autorickshaw drivers, apprehended them in Moulvibazar. This marks a dramatic escalation in counter-terrorism scrutiny of the region after police raided a suspected militant hideout two days earlier. Overall, in four separate drives over a span of eight days – the first two held in Mirpur, Dhaka – some 38 suspected militants have been arrested. We are told that the suspects also had 11 children with them.

The question is, how worried should we be about these developments? Although all such raids are usually followed by reassuring claims about things being under control, we must approach them with a degree of caution. Any reading of the situation must not only be political, but also be from a security perspective. The new outfit linked to recent arrests has been identified as "Imam Mahmuder Kafela", whose ideology apparently aligns with the "Ghazwa-e-Hind", or Battle of India, the prophecy of a pan-Indian takeover under Muslim rule. The chief of the Counter Terrorism and Transnational Crime (CTTC) of police has suggested that it has more than one hideout, as well as links with other established outfits. During their raid, police have recovered explosives and non-domestic detonators, suggesting its capabilities and possible external influences.

The organisation's recruitment strategies – engaging entire families rather than lone wolves – also reflect a more covert approach aimed at avoiding suspicion and evading the radar of law enforcement agencies. This family-centric strategy signals the adaptability of extremist groups, a stark reminder that the fight against religious extremism remains an ongoing one. All this is quite concerning. Evidently, the lull in major militant activity since 2016-2017 – when Bangladesh experienced a surge in terrorist incidents – should not distract us from the danger posed by the operation of the new outfit and others said to be lying low.

What should we do to stave them off? Anti-militancy operations of the kind witnessed in recent days are an important part of the response. But as we have stressed repeatedly before, for a greater impact, we must not focus on law enforcement alone. While these raids maybe successful on a short-term basis, the evolving operational methods of militant outfits underscore the importance of pursuing both hard and soft approaches. We must understand why some individuals or families are getting drawn to radical ideologies. As well undertaking deradicalisation programmes, both in wider social settings and inside prisons for convicted militants, we must promote a culture of religious tolerance and address the underlying factors leading to frustration and radicalisation.