UK General Election 2017: A neck-and-neck race
Over the past couple of years British political landscape has undergone dramatic changes. When David Cameron won a Conservative majority in the May 2015 general elections, one never thought that he would challenge the European Union. But the shocking Brexit referendum of June 2016, which split the British polity down the middle, stunned Europeans. Soon thereafter Cameron quit as prime minister and left the onerous task to Theresa May to steer Britain out of EU.
As animated debates continued over the pros and cons of Brexit, Theresa May (originally anti-Brexit) seemed hesitant to trigger Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union to withdraw UK from EU. However, after lots of dithering and passing a law in the parliament she finally invoked Article 50 in a letter to EU President Donald Tusk on March 29, 2017. Then on April 18, 2017, she announced a snap election for June 8, 2017 – three years ahead of schedule but allowing 50 days of election campaigning.
May, aware that the Conservatives were ahead of Labour in opinion polls, took this gamble for fresh mandate to get a larger parliamentary majority to strengthen her hands at the Brexit negotiations. Jeremy Corbyn was happy that the election would provide an opportunity in the race for Downing Street.
The election campaign is dominated by a single topic – whether Brexit would lead to better economic conditions. Since the referendum UK has been languishing economically, with a sharp fall in the value of pound sterling and a sense of uncertainty among employers that has hit household budgets pulling down living standards.
The anti-Brexit rhetoric, coming out of Brussels and hardened positions of different EU leaders, has seemingly made May's victory in the election uncertain. For instance, European Commission President Jean Claude-Juncker after having dinner with May on May 1, 2017, apparently said he was "10 times more skeptical" about the success of a Brexit deal. That put Theresa May in an awkward situation, accusing the EU of seeking to influence the results of the general election. German Chancellor Angela Merkel also fired a salvo, when she said Europe must take its fate into its own hands as the post-war Western alliance had been badly undermined by UK's Brexit vote and Donald Trump's election as US president.
Theresa May was curiously absent from the BBC TV debate on May 31, which invited leaders of all seven parties contesting the polls. However, both May and Corbyn appeared separately on TV in front of an audience where both leaders have had hard times answering questions.
Theresa May in her TV interviews insisted that the choice for voters was between her "strong and stable" leadership and the "coalition of chaos" under Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn. Conservative leaders say they will seek a new "deep and special partnership with the EU"; leave the single market and customs union; control immigration and secure the rights of EU nationals in UK and Britons in the EU; and that no deal is better than a bad deal. These are May's wishful ideas that may not find takers in Brussels.
The opposition Labour Party is sitting on the fence on Brexit. They are yet to make their position clear, primarily because many Labour MPs are still ambivalent about Brexit. Jeremy Corbyn wants to scrap the Conservatives' Brexit white paper and replace it with fresh negotiating priorities with a strong emphasis on retaining the single market and customs union. Corbyn's manifesto says that Labour will "reject no deal as viable" and guarantee existing rights for EU nationals living in Britain and UK citizens living in the EU. Labour leaders are more intent to exploit issues such as economy, health care, immigration, etc., to coax voters. Actually, Corbyn is faced with a catch-22 situation.
What is most alarming is that Britain came under terrorist attacks suspending campaigning twice – first in Manchester on May 22 that killed 22 and injured more than 100. The second was on June 3 on London Bridge when three attackers wielding knives stabbed dozens of people, killing 7 and injuring nearly 50 more. Police shot dead the attackers and later arrested 12 people in connection with the attack.
Theresa May condemned the attack blaming it on the "single evil ideology of Islamist extremism". She declared, "Violence can never be allowed to disrupt the democratic process," and that election will be held as scheduled on June 8. Jeremy Corbyn said, "I hope it will not disrupt our democratic process." London Mayor Sadiq Khan condemning the attack said, "We will never let these cowards win." It appears these terrorists are British citizens who are linked to IS.
Theresa May will face an uphill task as six other parties in the fray will cut into her vote share. However, some of the smaller parties may become kingmaker if either the Conservative or Labour Party fails to get an outright majority. In the 650-seat House, the party winning 326 gets to form the government.
British pollsters had failed to gauge public opinion correctly on the 2015 general election and also on the Brexit referendum in 2016. Anyway, polls indicate that the Conservative Party is ahead of Labour and is projected to win a majority. But May is worried that the opinion polls are see-sawing. It will be a setback for Theresa May if Conservatives fail to get more than 330 seats that it got in 2015. And it will be a disaster if May fails to get past 326. A hung parliament will be even worse as that will affect Brexit negotiations.
Brexit negotiations are scheduled to begin on June 19 – the same day the newly elected House of Commons reconvenes for formal opening. Whichever party wins majority it will be an arduous task for the British prime minister to get a clean divorce from EU and at the same time remain friendly with continental Europe. Indeed, Britain is passing through an extraordinary phase of its political history.
The writer is former Ambassador and Secretary.