INDIA-CHINA STANDOFF
Time to take a step back
All is not well between the two Asian giants. Since mid-June 2017 tension has been simmering between India and China on Bhutan's border high up in the Himalayan mountains.
Chinese military engineers were seen attempting to build a road through a plateau known as Doklam in India and Donglang in China. The plateau lies at a junction between China, Sikkim and Bhutan. The border between Bhutan and Tibet around Doklam is a disputed area, according to India. Bhutan declared that the Chinese road may penetrate Bhutanese territory and has asked China to return to the status quo before June 16, 2017. Bhutan, which does not have an embassy in Beijing and does not directly negotiate with China, sought assistance from India, with which it has a Friendship Treaty since 1949. India quickly sent its troops to the area around end-June, and stopped the Chinese military from constructing the road.
This sparked a military standoff between the two countries with both Delhi and Beijing issuing strong threatening invectives. The standoff continues. Beijing's position is that the dispute, if at all, is between sovereign Bhutan and China, and India, as a third party, has no locus standi in the matter. The Chinese position is that India has trespassed into a "defined section" of the boundary and China has warned India of serious consequences if it does not pull back its troops.
The root of the current dispute lies in the interpretation of the 1890 treaty that was signed between Britain and China demarcating the border between Sikkim and Tibet. The Chinese claim that Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru accepted the treaty is rejected by India. Because of security concerns India cannot allow geopolitical intrusion by China in South Asia.
It is the geostrategic policies of the two countries that are driving this dangerous standoff. Delhi strongly believes that China is trying to gain strategic advantage by building the road in the disputed Doklam area. The road will bring the Chinese military (PLA) very close to the Indian "Chicken's Neck". Chicken's Neck is the 27km narrow strip of corridor between the northern tip of Bangladesh and southeastern Nepal that allows passage to India from the west to the eight northeastern states. India simply does not want any Chinese road built either on the "disputed" area or even in the non-disputed Chinese side. Because the Chinese road will critically change the dynamics of the military strategy on the ground for India. A small push by the Chinese military across Sikkim can cut off the Chicken's Neck severing communication between mainland India and its northeastern states.
Indian Defence Minister Arun Jaitley said that the India of 2017 is not the India of 1962, and the country is well within its rights to defend its territorial integrity. External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj, speaking at the Rajya Sabha on July 20, also asserted that India is capable of defending itself against an onslaught by China. She said that both sides must pull back its troops before talks can begin. Indian Foreign Secretary Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said India and China have handled border issues in the past and there is no reason why they should not be able to settle this issue this time. He also said differences should not become disputes.
Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval was in Beijing for the National Security Advisors (NSA) meeting (July 27–28) related to the BRICS summit to take place in Xiamen from August 31–September 4, 2017. Doval had meetings with China's State Councillor Yang Jiechi, who is also a special representative of boundary talks. Yang Jeichi expressed China's stern position and asked Doval to end the trespass.
Beijing wants to resolve the dispute before the BRICS summit, because the standoff will surely dampen the outcome of the summit. It would be difficult for President Xi Jinping to welcome Indian PM Narendra Modi for the summit, at a time when troops from each side have been deployed on "eyeball-to-eyeball" confrontation. A similar awkward situation occurred at the G20 summit in Hamburg (July 7–8), when the two leaders did not hold a meeting, as according to the Chinese foreign ministry, "The atmosphere is not right for a bilateral meeting…."
For China, stepping back and resolving the crisis has become extremely difficult because of domestic compulsions. The Communist Party is scheduled to hold its 19th Congress in autumn this year. Any pullback by China will be seen as an act of surrender by President Xi Jinping, who is set to become the most powerful leader that China has seen in decades.
The case is similar for Narendra Modi's ultra-nationalist BJP—there is little room for any conciliation with China. Besides, festering insurgency in the northeast and the Gorkhaland movement along the Chicken's Neck is a source of concern for India, which may play into the hands of China. Also, India cannot let its traditional ally Bhutan and a buffer between India and China fall under the geopolitical influence of China.
The 4,056km India-China border has, so far, neither been demarcated nor internationally recognised. This has led to frequent frictions, standoff and even war. But the fact remains that India has been wary in settling the border issues, despite having many negotiations with China over the past decades. Some experts believe that this standoff will be a long-haul affair. So far it has been a war of words between Delhi and Beijing—no shots have been fired. Bangladesh should also hope that no hostilities break out in Doklam, which is not very far from the Panchagarh district of Bangladesh.
India-China relations have always remained distrustful, despite great progress in commercial relations. A war will not resolve anything—only patient behind-the-scene negotiations will bear fruit.
Mahmood Hasan is former ambassador and secretary.