Disunity at the G20 Summit
This year the annual G20 summit was held in Hamburg, Germany, on July 7-8. Nineteen leaders of the world's richest nations and emerging economies, representing 85 percent of the world's gross domestic product (GDP), 80 percent of world trade and two-thirds of the world population, met with the aim to stabilise the global economic and financial infrastructures. With the European Union attending the summit, the group became G20. Leaders of 7 other countries were also invited as guests.
This year the summit was different as two newly elected leaders attended the summit for the first time—French President Emmanuel Macron and US President Donald Trump. All eyes were riveted on how Donald Trump behaved at this important gathering and handled himself when he met his arch rival, Russian President Vladimir Putin, for the first time.
Trump did raise the issue of Russian meddling in the last US election with Putin. Putin categorically denied any involvement, which, according to Russian officials, was accepted by Trump though Americans denied any such acceptance. Even if Trump accepted Putin's explanation it is not going to stop the CIA investigation on Russian meddling in the 2016 election. To say that Russia did interfere will delegitimise Trump's election as president. It is a Catch 22 situation for Trump. Since there were neither note takers nor any tapes, it is difficult to ascertain who was speaking the truth.
The meeting, originally scheduled for 30 minutes, lasted for more than two hours. However, the Trump-Putin meeting produced one decision—ceasefire in southwest Syria which began on July 9. Interestingly, the ceasefire was decided on without any representation from Syria. However, Trump did not succeed in dissuading Putin from interfering in Ukraine. From the body language of the two leaders that appeared in video clips, it seems that Putin had full control over Trump. One wonders why Trump is so meek in front of Putin.
The other incident that hit the headlines was the massive protests organised by thousands of anti-capitalism activists that turned Hamburg into a veritable battlefield as they fought with armed police, indulged in arson, looted stores and burned vehicles. Apparently, the protestors hated Trump, Putin and Erdogan visiting their country. Nearly 500 policemen were injured as they fought to keep protestors away from the summit venues. Hundreds of far left militants were detained.
The problem with Donald Trump is his "America First" doctrine—disengaging from several important issues facing the world today. His isolationist policy had earlier fractured the unity of G7 (summit held in May 2017 in Italy) and now G20. As the largest economy in the world, American abdication in these important issues is likely to have serious consequences for the global economy and may likely lead to unsustainable warming of planet Earth.
Summit host German Chancellor Angela Merkel had prioritised three issues for the summit—globalisation, climate change and immigration. The Trump Administration had difficulties with all these issues, which was reflected while adopting the Final Declaration. Compromises were made to keep unity of the club.
On climate change, the Declaration says, "We take note of the US decision to withdraw from the Paris Agreement. The US announced that it will immediately cease implementation of its current nationally-defined contribution and reaffirmed its strong commitment to an approach that reduces emissions…." The Final Declaration categorically stated that the 2015 Paris Agreement is irreversible. Merkel obtained the support on this issue from China and India—the two biggest emitters of carbon after the US. Merkel closing the summit went further with a rebuke to President Trump's stance on climate change saying, "Unfortunately, and I deplore this, the United States of America left the Climate Agreement...." Clearly, Trump was badly isolated on this issue.
Though America objected to globalisation, the Declaration rejected protectionism. Merkel warned, "There can be no return to a pre-globalisation world." The Declaration identified poverty and inequality as the root causes of migration and committed to contribute to sustainable economic growth and job creation in Africa and other less developed countries to stem the flow of migrants.
G20 summit rituals as with G7, BRICS or with other regional groupings fall woefully short of addressing the welfare of the world's poorer sections of peoples. The rich nations club make tall commitments to alleviate the conditions of the poor but little seems to be done. For instance, since the last G20 summit in Hangzhou, China in September 2016, has there been any perceptible change in the global economy? Actually, by creating these groupings the United Nations has been made ineffective.
What is noteworthy is that G20 member nations are vastly different from one another. Several members would fail to get the required marks on democracy and governance. Democracy is actually on the wane, while nationalistic fervour is on the rise in some member countries. On income inequality, technological advancement and industrial growth, several members are way behind others in the group. It is only natural, therefore, that there would be differences of views and perceptions on global issues.
However, summits are good in a sense that it provides opportunities for bilateral meetings, where leaders push their respective national agenda. The outcome of bilateral negotiation becomes more important than the Final Declaration. Leaders are seldom bothered with Summit Declarations as these are finalised long before leaders arrive at the summit venue. Results of Declaration follow-up are hardly perceptible.
The Hamburg G20 summit has laid bare the disunity among the group.
Mahmood Hasan is former Ambassador and Secretary.