So near, yet so far

When the standoff over Iran's Nuclear Deal seemed to be coming to an end, new sticky issues emerged. The P5+1 (five UNSC permanent members plus Germany) foreign ministers and Iran's Javad Zarif have been huddling together at Coburg Palace in Vienna since June 27, 2015 to conclude the Final Deal.

The Deal will essentially stop Iran from developing nuclear devices in return for lifting debilitating sanctions that the UN and the West had imposed on Iran.

Interestingly Iran's nuclear programme began in 1957 under Emperor Reza Shah Pahlavi with American and European technology. As a signatory of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Iran is very much within its rights to use nuclear technology for peaceful purposes.

Problems arose when in August 2002 an exiled Iranian opposition group exposed the fact that Iran was involved in uranium enrichment. And in December 2002, Washington accused Iran of covertly trying to develop nuclear weapons. Israel too joined the blame game. That was the beginning of the nuclear confrontation. For the past 13 years Iran half-heartedly participated in indirect talks with P5+1 under the aegis of IAEA, but with no progress. 

Washington's policy towards Iran changed appreciably when Barack Obama entered the White House as president in 2009.  But not much progress was achieved because of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's chauvinism. The breakthrough came when moderate Hassan Rouhani became Iran's President in August 2013. The 32-year antagonism between the West and Iran gave way to direct talks, between P5+1 and Iran, which started in November 2013 in Geneva.

After nearly 18 months of hard negotiations a "framework accord" was agreed upon on April 2, 2015 in Lausanne. The Final Deal was supposed to be completed by June 30, 2015. 

In short, the Lausanne 'framework accord' poses these requirements on Iran – a) drastically slash the number of centrifuges, b) no enrichment of uranium beyond 3.67 percent purity, and c) strict inspection of all nuclear facilities by IAEA. For their part, P5+1 will lift all sanctions within 4 to 12 months of the Final Deal in phases. Tehran considers the sanctions illegal and wants immediate dismantling.  Surprisingly, the deal does not mention anything about Iran's missile capabilities.

The new issues introduced by P5+1 are – a) IAEA's inspection of Iranian military sites, which Tehran vehemently opposes, b) IAEA to interview Iranian nuclear scientists; Iran opposes this too as it can lead to their assassinations, as has happened in the past, c) P5+1 also want snap-back sanctions, if Iran is found cheating, and d) P5+1 insist that Iran drastically curtail its nuclear programme for at least 10 years. Tehran wants to continue to do research and development during this period.

The West needs the Final Deal as much as Iran. President Obama has apparently sent private messages to Iranian leaders just before talks began in Vienna. President Obama needs this Deal to prove his doctrine that wars do not solve problems. It will be one of his foreign policy legacies.

The Deal will, however, impose new responsibilities on Washington to monitor whether Ayatollah Khomeini and Hassan Rouhani are busting the provisions of the Deal. President Obama also has to deal with the neocons in Congress who are staunchly opposed to the Deal. Washington also wants to restore relations with Tehran, which President George Bush once described as the "axis of evil". 

Iran's foreign policy is based on realpolitik and expediency, not necessarily on morals or principles. Iranian economy is in a shambles. Tehran desperately needs the money -- over $100 billion -- blocked by sanctions to return to normal life. Iranians are tired of the economic strains created by the sanctions. President Rouhani's move to get out of this economic strangulation is enthusiastically supported by Iranians in general. President Rouhani cannot afford to fumble or fail. However, if the negotiations fail, the hardliners will be waiting on the wings to discredit Rouhani.

The Final Deal will also open enormous opportunities for American and European businesses to rush to Iran. They are waiting for lucrative contracts from Iran's oil industry. World oil prices will also be impacted once Iranian oil starts flowing freely. 

Even without going nuclear Iran will become a formidable power once the economic restrictions are gone. One must not, however, discount the fact that restrictions imposed by the Deal cannot erase the nuclear knowledge Iran has already gained over the past decades. Iran already has the technological know-how to develop nuclear devices. All it needs is 90 percent enriched uranium. 

The Final Deal will no doubt realign the balance of power in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States, which are deeply opposed to the deal, may find themselves aligned with Israel for security reasons. Iranian support for Hezbollah and Shia regimes in Syria and Iraq will no doubt be boosted. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned against the Deal saying that it "would threaten the very survival of the state of Israel."   

The meeting in Vienna has been extended by seven days, and not more, for both sides to thrash out hurdles. That is because President Obama has to submit the Deal on July 9 to Congress for approval. Congress will have a month to deliberate and pass it before Washington can sign it. So even if the Deal is ready in Vienna on July 7, it cannot be signed until another 30 days, assuming Congress has endorsed it.

 Everyone hopes that the Final Deal will be concluded as both sides desperately need it. However, both sides will have to come up with courage of conviction and determination. Last April, the Deal seemed close to completion but unless the two sides can bridge their trust gap the Final Deal may be a bit far off.

The writer is former Ambassador and Secretary.