DECLASSIFIED CIA FILES, 1971
The showdown cannot be put off much longer
Today, The Daily Star publishes a recently declassified CIA document which reflects on the tumultuous situation following Bangabandhu's speech on March 7, 1971 and apprehends an imminent crackdown by Pakistani Military.
Central Intelligence Agency
Directorate of Intelligence
8 MARCH,1971
INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM
PAKISTAN
(Situation as of 1200 EST)
1. Further details of East Pakistani leader Mujibur Rahman's speech yesterday [ 7 March, 1971] indicate his tone was tougher than previously reported. Apparently the martial law authorities initially tried to prevent widespread public knowledge of parts of Mujib's speech, but later relented and permitted a recorded version to be broadcast. In addition to setting preconditions for East Pakistani attendance at the National Assembly and announcing a ten-point non-cooperation program, Mujib made scathing attacks on West Pakistanis, particularly the army and the "Punjabi ruling coterie." Punjabis are the largest group in West Pakistan and have been accused of exploiting not only the Bengalis of East Pakistan but non-Punjabi West Pakistanis. Mujib also criticized President Yahya Khan and Z.A.Bhutto, leader of West Pakistan's largest party.
2. The US Embassy in Islamabad believes that events of the past weekend - Mujib's and Yahya's speeches-have averted an immediate showdown, but that the next few days will tell whether the military decides it has had enough-which could mean a crackdown and the arrest of Mujib and others-or whether it still believes there is a chance to negotiate.
3. The embassy feels that Mujib's goal - "emancipation" of East Pakistan-remains unchanged, but that Mujib may no longer believe this can be obtained through his program of provincial autonomy. He now might plan to achieve independence and try to take over power gradually to avoid a direct confrontation with the military.
4. The embassy concludes, " Events of March 6-7 have deferred a showdown, but have not altered the basic elements. Bengalis appear bent on a degree of autonomy which the Pakistani military (and probably Bhutto) are unable to swallow. The question now is whether Yahya or Mujib will blink first - or whether neither will blink. The showdown cannot be put off much longer."