No political solution in Syria

This is a fight to the death. The Islamists are intent on taking all of Syria. The same goes for President Assad. He hopes to retake all of Syria one day. Despite all the prophesies made by Mid-East pundits over the last few years about how the Alawite regime is on the verge of collapse in the face of rebel gains, apparent fractures within the Syrian security establishment, the greater difficulty faced by the Syrian government in getting new recruits for the armed forces, the regime has survived. Not only has it survived, the regime still maintains control over half the population. While the Iraqi regime seems increasingly in jeopardy with an army that seems to have lost its will to fight, Assad has held his ground in a bloody civil war that has already lasted four years.

Foreign fighters have converged on Syria on both sides. The Islamic State (IS) has become an oasis for jihadists from around the world. Whilst Damascus has seen an inflow of Shiite fighters, particularly the Lebanese Hezbollah, which is greatly dependent on Assad for supply of heavy weaponry. Damascus's survival is a top national security issue for Tehran and will remain so for the foreseeable future. This is reinforced by the Iranian largesse of US$1billion to Damascus in late May to help pay for salaries and benefits, particularly the armed forces. Indeed, the new cash flow is helping to bankroll recruitment of new foreign fighters with the intent of not only holding on to existing territory but to launch counter offensives to hopefully push back rebel forces. As stated before, Hezbollah remains at the forefront in Assad's fight against rebels, particularly IS. As pointed out by Philip Smyth in his article Assad Strikes Back printed recently in The Guardian, "Early in 2014, the deployment of pro-Assad foreign fighters hit a significant snag when thousands of Iraqi Shiite militiamen started returning to Iraq following the Islamic State's gains there. However, the crown jewel of Iran's proxy network — the Lebanese paramilitary group Hezbollah — soon picked up the slack for the redeployed Iraqis. Hezbollah recruitment has increased, both within Lebanon and via the group's affiliated proxies in Syria. The organisation also boosted its influence by targeting not just Shiite Muslims for recruitment, but also other minorities, such as Druze and Christian groups, forming them into paramilitary organisations fitting the Hezbollah model." Indeed, going by what has been reported in international media, the conflict in Syria is drawing not just Jihadists to fight under the banner of IS. Evidence emerged in 2013 and 2014 that Afghan and Pakistani Shiites are fighting for Damascus. Looking beyond the Iranian angle, various Shiite groups have taken their call to arms programme online. Like the IS, Iranian-backed militias have been posting pictures and videos of combat against rebel forces in an effort, which has been successful to a certain extent, in calling to arms Shiites from beyond the boundaries of Syria.

The Assad regime has used not just coercion to keep the faithful in line. In December 2014, a new law was enacted by Damascus that half the public sector jobs would go to families of fallen fighters who have died to save the regime. It has opened up its coffers in compensating villages that have suffered attacks by rebel and Jihadi groups. Assad has been successful in maintaining control of Damascus and principal areas in western and central Syria. As pointed out by Yezid Savigh of the Carnergie Endowment, "If present trends continue – and there really is little to suggest they will not – then the regime will be in a dominant position and in effect control of a critical mass of the country by the end of 2015, if not sooner." Assad has been fortunate in having foreign allies who have never swerved from their commitment, i.e. Iran and Russia. The rebels on the other hand have never put up a united front nor have they received consistent military aid, particularly MAPAD anti-aircraft missiles which could have put a dent in Assad's offensive capability.

The war in Syria is the epicentre of a struggle between Iran and the Sunni-led Gulf States headed by Saudi Arabia. While the Saudis may have no stomach for the IS, Riyadh is as determined to oust Assad as Tehran is eager to protect him. It is not merely external allies that are keeping the Damascus government in the driving seat. While many Alawites have little stomach for the war, fear of retribution from an IS victory keep them in line. The fearful reputation of IS for its love of sectarian slaughter is an established fact. Indeed most rebel groups would show little respect for Shiites, especially Alawites who are held to be "unbelievers and apostates". The other minority community - Christian, whatever is left of it anyway as the vast majority is believed to have left Syria - have till now, thrown in their lot with Assad. No, there will be no peaceful solution in the Syrian conflict. An IS victory in Syria will change the geopolitical scenario of the Middle East beyond recognition. The much-dreamt about "caliphate" is likely to become a reality, a scenario the regional superpowers and their allies beyond will move heaven and earth to avoid.

The writer is Assistant Editor, The Daily Star.