A misguided election campaign

Campaigning in the forth coming elections is set to get underway in days, although Daw Aung San Suu Kyi already appears to have hit the campaign trail. And all indications are that it is going to be a very bitter battle. More importantly the tone set during this period in the lead up to the polls on November 8 will affect what happens afterwards – no matter what the actual results are. 

The National League for Democracy's campaign slogan "Time for Change" certainly captures the prevailing mood all across the country. And then – given the crisis within the party over the candidate selection process – the message to the electorate is do not consider who the constituency candidate is, but vote for the peacock flag and its leader. 

"Our motto is a vote for the NLD, is a vote for Aung San Suu Kyi," said Win Htein – currently an MP and very close to the NLD leader. He told me that he is originally from the Insein area in Yangon, whereas he stood for the by-election in 2012 for Meitikla where no one knew him. 

"Who are you they said," he told me recently. "So I said, do you know Daw Aung San Suu Kyi? Do you love her? Then vote for me, I work for her!" He had an overwhelming victory as a result.

This approach will certainly bring people to the polls to vote for her. But will it be enough for the landslide victory Aung San Suu Kyi expects? She has been confidently telling diplomats that the NLD will win some eighty percent of the seats that are up for election – that would give her party some 60% of the total since 25% of the parliamentary seats are reserved for soldiers nominated by the commander-in-chief. 

The NLD has also alienated the country's Muslim population – around an estimated 4% of the country – by banning the selection of Muslim candidates, even in Muslim areas. This has meant some high profile candidates were turned down. The order came from the party's top leaders. 

Fear of angering the Buddhist nationalists – especially the Committee for the Protection of Nationality and Religion, which is better known by its Myanmar-language acronym Ma Ba Tha, which includes the outspoken monk Ashin Wirathu – convinced the party's leaders to exclude Muslims from their constituency list. "It wasn't easy and involved a lot of soul searching," said a member of the party's central executive, who declined to be identified. 

As a result of the elections, the most likely outcome will be a hung parliament – with the NLD the largest party but without an absolute majority. This means she will have to count on the other smaller parties and the ethnic groups in parliament to put her in the driving seat – to elect the president, form the government and push for constitutional change.

But more worrying for the post-election period is the Lady's concerted effort to make this a two-way fight – between democrats and the military. She has repeated this mantra several times over the last few weeks, notably after the proposed constitutional changes were effectively vetoed by the military MPs in parliament. It will gain her popularity and votes for sure. But it may handicap her in the longer run – after the election.

During the combined campaign to change the constitution last year with the 88 Group, they warned her not to antagonise the army and to resist confronting them head on. She ignored their advice and angered the military leaders, especially Senior General Min Aung Hlaing. As a result he cancelled a planned meeting with her in June – which she had been seeking for nearly two years. Keeping communications channels open with the army is essential. 

This is critical as the army is going to be the "king makers" in Myanmar's future political landscape after the elections. Already former senior military officers, turned academics and analysts, are looking at post-poll scenarios – on how to ensure the NLD and Aung San Suu Kyi are not in the driving seat. While the top military brass wont talk to the Lady at the moment – directly or indirectly – they would have no trouble negotiating with her after the election results are known, said a former military officer on condition of anonymity.      

That is one of the reasons the speaker and acting chairman of the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), Thura Shwe Mann had to be sidelined now, because of the fear that his close relationship with the Lady would hamper their continued hold on power. As a former senior general in the army before the 2010 elections, Shwe Mann is viewed by the military hierarchy as a traitor. 

While Daw Suu must be taken into account in any post-election negotiations – especially if she gains a significant proportion of seats – much rests on her actions and attitude towards the army. A more conciliatory approach to the army would not lessen her electoral popularity, but would give her a stronger hand in the fraught post-election dialogue that will follow the results. 

The danger is that if she exceeds expectations and wins a majority in parliament – or close to it – the elite may be forced to take the "coup" option and follow the Thai model of democracy. Although Senior General Min Aung Hlaing has publicly declared that the army would respect the election results, other important leaders in government have told visiting diplomats that a "constitutional coup" could not be ruled out if things did not go their way. The more belligerent the Lady is towards the army, the more likely this is the scenario that will be adopted. 

The writer is a specialist on Myanmar and a former BBC World Service News Editor for the Asia region.