Did Pakistan bite off more than it could chew?
Pakistan stands isolated after being accused by India for involvement in the recent terrorist strike on the army headquarters in Uri.
The recent attack on the Brigade headquarters in Uri, leading to the deaths of 18 soldiers and Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's hostile speech at the UN, have made headlines all week. Most television channels have been discussing options open to India, building hype for a suitable response. Opposition political parties are drawing mileage by challenging the present government on its security policies.
The Prime Minister's recent speeches put at rest speculation of an immediate military response while leaving other options open. There have been claims that the attack was timed with the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) session, possibly to prompt a half-hearted Indian military response, which could have been of advantage to Pakistan.
While the government has clearly stated that the nature and type of response would be at a time and place of its choosing, calls for immediate action continue in every form of media. Many clandestine military operations successfully launched may never be announced, as they could indicate hostile and escalatory actions.
The Myanmar assault on the NSCN (K) camp was publicised as the two governments had approved it. If actions against Pakistan cause damage, they also would avoid announcing it. There have been occasions when Pakistan has imposed strict media ban, whenever the effect of Indian actions has been immense.
Maybe this time Pakistan has bitten off more than it could chew. It instigated the Kashmir unrest and planned for an increase in its tempo just prior to the UNGA session. However, heavy and timely deployment of additional security forces prevented this occurring.
Its supporters within the Hurriyat as also the Imams did try and continue to incite the public but could not achieve the desired success. The agitation, in itself, was only limited to small parts of the valley. Once this failed, it aimed at activating terrorists already inducted but instructed to lie low into action.
The first attempt was at Poonch. Here, they did manage to come close to the Brigade HQs, but were unsuccessful. Casualties were restricted. This setback had to be rectified. This led to the attack on Uri. This camp is located within a civil area, with only wire fencing, and is hence vulnerable.
Like with other attacks, Pakistan hoped to achieve limited success. It expected a few casualties, which would be well below Indian threshold levels of tolerance, but would give a boost to the fading Kashmir unrest and indicate to the youth presently protesting that Pakistan's support is with them. India would due to few casualties cry hoarse, but not contemplate a strong response. They banked on their nuclear weapons as blackmail. However, this plan backfired.
A major impact was that news of the agitation in Kashmir suddenly vanished from the radar. What till then had dominated headlines and discussion was relegated to the background. Even moderates who advocated talks with Pakistan and the Hurriyat were either ignored or changed their tune.
The National Conference (NC), the main opposition and its leader, Omar Abdullah, quit their 'talk to Pakistan' stance suddenly and without explaining the logic. News of injuries and arrests due to the ongoing agitation receded to inside sections of newspapers. Government action against the agitation and the Hurriyat as also its funding could proceed without caution or media glare.
Further, whatever sympathy Pakistan had attempted to generate in the international arena on Kashmir suffered a setback and it would take a long time to regain this ground. Most importantly, it united the Indian nation against Pakistan.
Though Pakistan would have war-gamed the timing of the operation, however the quantum of casualties bounced back on them. World over, they were identified as sponsors of terror and everyone Pakistan turned to for support either ignored them or refused to comment. In the US, where Pakistan attempted to play the hurt nation, a bill marking Pakistan as the state sponsor of terror was introduced in Congress. The EU openly supported India. Even China asked for restraint. The action, which Pakistan hoped would galvanize support, turned into its Achilles' heel.
The UNGA heard their Prime Minister; however in his opening address, the UN Secretary General made no remarks about Kashmir being disputed in the eyes of the UN. The dossier on Kashmir, presented by Nawaz Sharif to the Secretary General was accepted with a statement that it remains a bilateral issue. In reality, the speech was played for the local Pakistan audience.
For India, this attack opened flood gates of options, which it could pursue and in no rush for time. The diplomatic isolation of Pakistan, which the Prime Minister had commenced since assuming office, got a spurt. Nation after nation condemned the action and pushed Pakistan deeper into a corner. Even its traditional supporters in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have maintained silence over Kashmir.
Within the region, avenues are now open to ensure that the scheduled SAARC summit is a failure. Bangladesh and Afghanistan are in touch with India to boycott the summit. It would lead to huge embarrassment for Pakistan. In such a case, a new group within the region ignoring Pakistan could be created, which would only add insult to injury.
The abrogation of the Indus water treaty, could also be considered. Finally, clandestine military action can seriously be planned, Pakistan's nuclear bluff notwithstanding.
In all likelihood, Pakistan would never have expected the results which it got from the terrorist strike. Like all others prior to it, it expected limited success or maybe failure. However, occasionally success also results in failures and offsets the best of plans. In this case too, it has caused more damage to Pakistan than it expected. In reality, it is a case of Pakistan biting off more than it could chew.
The writer Harsha Kakar is a retired Major-General of the Indian Army.
Copyright: The Statesman/Asia News Network