‘Very high’ odds of war with China

A top Republican in the US Congress said on Sunday the odds of conflict with China over Taiwan "are very high" after a US general caused consternation with a memo that warned that the United States would fight China in the next two years. In a memo dated February 1 but released on Friday, General Mike Minihan, who heads the Air Mobility Command, wrote to the leadership of its roughly 110,000 members, saying, "My gut tells me we will fight in 2025." "I hope he is wrong... I think he is right, though," Mike McCaul, the new chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the US House of Representatives, told Fox News Sunday. The general's views do not represent the Pentagon but show concern at the highest levels of the US military over a possible attempt by China to exert control over Taiwan, which Beijing claims as a wayward province. Both the United States and Taiwan will hold presidential elections in 2024, potentially creating an opportunity for China to take military action, Minihan wrote. McCaul said that if China failed to take control of Taiwan bloodlessly then "they are going to look at a military invasion in my judgment. We have to be prepared for this". He accused the Democratic administration of projecting weakness after the bungled pullout from Afghanistan.