The fallacy of overconfidence and lessons unlearnt
Many coin the number 13 as “Unlucky” and it is not uncommon that some people tend to avoid special occasions like marriage and inauguration ceremonies etc. being held on the 13th day of the month. As Bangladesh celebrates the 42nd year of her independence on March 26, 2013, which direction this nation would be charting its way forward in this crucial 13th year of the twenty first century is the biggest question lurking in the mind of the people.
Would the country be moving towards national elections participated by all the major political parties and held in a free, fair, and congenial atmosphere like 2008, 2001, 1996, and 1991?
Would the economy pick up and investors and the business community regain confidence after such an election? Would ordinary people be able to go about their usual daily life free from fear of political violence and deterioration of law and order?
Would the educational institutions function without frequent interruptions caused by confrontational politics? Would Bangladesh earn the confidence of the international community as a country of political stability, matured democracy, resurgent economy, and attractive place for trade and investment?
Would 13 be our lucky year disproving the conventional apprehension surrounding this number?
Everyone is aware that to large extent answers to the above questions depends on the two major political parties as they play out their strategies in the crucial year of elections, both aspiring to be in the seat of the next elected government. Whether good sense will prevail over obstinacy or desperation for power will obscure common sense; whether greater national interest will pave the way for sensible compromise or whether narrow partisan interest will frustrate well intended efforts to achieve consensus; whether the party will rise above the person and the country will have more importance than the party or the tradition of unquestioned loyalty and shameful sycophancy will continue to hold the sway. There are too many questions floating in the horizon and not many positive facts on the ground that would inspire optimism and confidence as to where Bangladesh is heading in the year 2013.
Ever since the current democratically elected government took power after the eventful two years of the caretaker government (CTG), two major issues gained significance in the immediate aftermath of the elections. One was putting the armed forces, particularly the Bangladesh Army, into the dock whereby many of their actions during the period of CTG came under sustained attack by the politicians from both side of the aisles.
Inspite the fact that army played an important role in successfully holding the elections of 2008, including preparing a flawless voter list, many of their activities were put into the microscope and both the motive and efficacy of their actions were questioned. From the manner in which many people were jailed, which included politicians, businessmen, and bureaucrats to the allegations of corruption against the army itself, from the role played by the DGFI to the highhandedness of some army officials -- army took one of the most severe criticism in recent times. Political backlash compounded with the BDR tragedy led to one of the lowest points of morale and poor self esteem for this otherwise revered and trusted institution of the country.
Second are the constitutional changes that the ruling party, utilising its two-third majority in the parliament, made by enacting the 15th Constitutional Amendment to safeguard against any attempt to take state power through unconstitutional means. Selective excerpts from Clause 7A of the 15th Amendment reads, “If any person, by force or other un-constitutional means -- abrogates, repeals or suspends constitution … such act shall be sedition and such person shall be guilty of sedition…any person alleged to have committed the offence shall be sentenced with the highest punishment prescribed.”
The irony is that no matter how sacrosanct the constitution is and how much determined are the people in power to uphold its sanctity, if the negative externalities on the ground are more powerful than the need to preserve the positive spirit of the constitution, then the resulting disequilibrium risks upsetting the delicate balance. A balance that can only be maintained if all the important actors of the state behave responsibly and stop acting recklessly. Some of the constitution related epoch making historic events in Bangladesh will help understand how in the past that balance was shaken which then profoundly affected the journey of the nation in the last four decades.
On January 25, 1975 Bangladesh changed from multi-party parliamentary democracy to one-party presidential government led by then President Sheikh Mujibur Rahman as the 4th Amendment was passed and BAKSAL was installed. The background against which this change happened was the opposition that Awami League faced from far left wing parties -- some of them armed -- such as Purbo Banglar Communist Party (ML), Sarbahara Party, etc. Among mainstream opposition parties, JSD also formed Ganabahini. Jatiya Rakkhi Bahini was formed which was perceived by many as not being a very popular concept within the army. Internal factional feuds within Awami League also was jeopardizing political stability.
President Sheikh Mujibur Rahman stated that, “I would work to ensure democracy of the exploited masses and to end all forms of injustice… We have established for the downtrodden people and not for the 5 per cent rich… The government is aware that there is an international clique making Bangladesh a playground and agents of this clique are active in the country.” Other reasons that were cited for the 4th Amendment included to crush bandits in the countryside, to weed out corruption, and to initiate the 2nd revolution to ensure “An effective administration and a socialist economy to end exploitation' and 'all forms of injustice.”
The coup of November 7, 1975, resulted in General Ziaur Rahman's taking over power after the political instability resulting from coups and counter coups. To quote General Zia, “In the present situation, I have been requested by the people of Bangladesh, the army, the navy, the air force, the Bangladesh Rifles, police, ansars (home guards) and others to take over for the time being as the chief martial law administrator and chief of the Bangladesh Army.” At that time, the political situation was volatile, the economy was in shambles, and a significant number of officers and soldiers in the army lost their lives during those dark days of coups and counter coups as the nation was mired in a period of gloom and despair.
The next coup happened when in May 1982, General Ershad took power in a bloodless military coup citing corruption, poor law and order, and internal factional feuds within the then ruling BNP. To quote him, "The armed forces had taken over to save the impoverished country from social, administrative, and economic collapse. Ministerial council and assembly had been suspended, the constitution had been temporarily abrogated and martial law had been imposed throughout the country." Without elaboration, he also stated that "a new constitution may be formed". What happened was almost a decade of corruption ridden dictatorship until Ershad was overthrown in a popular movement led by the student activists in 1991.
After the army backed intervention more known as 1/11, on January 21, 2007, the Head of the CTG, Dr. Fakhruddin Ahmed is his address to the nation stated, "Today, the greatest challenge for us is to uphold and strengthen democratic rule by ensuring political and social stability, holding free and fair elections and ensuring people's voting right...any general election turns meaningless if not held following the essential rules and regulations of elections and creating a cherished atmosphere. Therefore, the main objective of this government is to create a congenial environment for holding transparent, peaceful and truly democratic elections."
Standing in March 2013, we live in different times as democracy has flourished in almost every part of the world and gone are the days of military rules and resulting dictatorships. Rampant human right abuses by despots with no recourse to justice are now almost tales from the past as from corrupt dictators of Africa to war crime despots like Slobodan Milosevic, all have faced the music of justice in the International Criminal Court in Hague. Even in Bangladesh, the experience of 1/11 tells that inspite the confrontational politics and resulting dysfunctional democracy that people of Bangladesh are having to put up with, the army backed civilian rule by an unelected government could not last long.
What is equally important is to realise that the irresponsible behaviour by the then ruling BNP, who were using all levers of power to stage manage the elections, ultimately brought them their worst nightmare since the party came into being. From trying to wrongly influencing the CTG through their loyal President to expecting their chosen Army Chief to support such immoral activities -- BNP's ill conceived ideas plunged the country into confrontational politics at its worst as chaos and civil disorder paved the way for army to step in.
The common perception still is that this army backed intervention was supported by some of the most powerful members of the international community who were concerned whether Bangladesh was heading towards an unmanageable law and order situation.
A situation which risked bending towards some form of civil war as rival political activists were attacking and lynching each other in broad day light. 2007 is the worst year in the history of BNP when they paid highest price for their worst political mistakes. It also was a period when both nationally and internationally, they had very few friends.
Today Awami League is in power with more power than what BNP had in its last year in office in 2006. With more power comes more responsibility and the greater need to be prudent. It would be suicidal for the AL to not to learn from BNP's mistake and to rely on ways and means which have more elements of mischief as opposed to genuine desire to see democracy continue its journey through a process of participative election that includes all and excludes none. A journey in which peoples' democratic rights are exercised in an election that is free, fair, and transparent. In absence of that, the likely scenario is not expected to be any better than what happened last time around, if not worse. In addition, the rising tension emanating from the collision course between those who support and those who oppose the war crime tribunals can only fuel the fire simmering beneath. Any uncontrolled eruption leading to more deaths of life and destruction of property will only further complicate and aggravate an already volatile situation. The more normalcy in public life is distanced, the closer we become to abnormal fallouts.
Abnormal activities, either through electoral manipulations in the polling centres or break down of civil order in public domain weakens the fundamentals on which the sacred constitution of a country is founded, preserved, and protected. The fundamentals being -- the right of people to make their choice in the ballot box freely and fairly, the maintenance of law and order that would encourage people to exercise their franchise with enthusiasm and without fear, the existence of a democratic culture that inspires peaceful coexistence of the political parties across the divide, and letting the vital organs of democracy function freely and fairly. The vital organs are -- the judiciary, the media, the law enforcing agencies, the civil administration, and the election machinery led by the Election Commission. When a popularly elected government tampers with these organs as means to prolong their rule more out of insecurity as opposed to having the confidence to win a popular mandate expressed freely and fairly, they do so at their own peril. A peril that risk subverting the constitution by weakening the pillars which holds it upright and strengthens forces that can be disruptive for the democratic continuity of the country.
Historically, when a coup replaces a constitutional government, the architects of the coup either abrogate the existing constitution, or suspend it. In both military coup and popular upsurge against incumbent government, there have been instances of abrogation of constitution. There are mainly two kinds of amendments: Constitutional Amendments and Martial Law Proclamation Orders. While the political parties can tighten the nuts and bolts of the Constitution as much as they want to deter any unconstitutional takeover of power, what they also must realise is that a constitution does not operate in vacuum. The doctrine of realism and the doctrine of necessity stipulate that the situation and the relationship between different actors can significantly influence the course which a country's constitutional history can take. Etat d'exception or emergency is a situation which puts ordinary civil and constitutional rights on hold.
One of the very first lines that is uttered when power is changed through unconstitutional means is that, “The constitution is temporarily suspended”. Which can be further exacerbated by proclamations like, “Citizens rights are temporarily suspended as well.” How much “temporary” is “temporary” is decided by host of factors that at this point is not even worth either assuming or discussing. However, it would be quite naïve for any political party to assume that emboldening the constitution is the only means to ensure that no unconstitutional acts would ever happen. Nor would it be wise to bask in over confidence because either there is a weak political opponent or all the lever of power are in the firm control of the party in power. What history teaches is something very different as quite evident from the examples that have been cited in this article.
As usual, the greatest lesson of the political history of Bangladesh is that no one cares to learn from the history. In the Holy Quran, our Creator says, “Most cursed among you are those whose eyes and ears I shall shut so that they will not see even when it is visible in front of them, and they will not hear even when it is being uttered in their presence.” Unfortunately it seems like our politicians are getting increasingly blind and deaf as their failure in not learning from the recent past can not bode well for the country and we as a nation risk being cursed by the twin devil of political instability and resulting economic downturn. When state power is not sobered by political sagacity of the ruling party and when opposition's urge to be in the government is fuelled more by desperation as opposed to genuine desire to do good for the people, then the inevitable outcome is continued misery for the nation. Neither overconfidence nor the inability to learn from the past can bode well for either the government or the people of the country who love democracy as much as they continue to suffer for it.
Will 13 be the lucky year for Bangladesh leading to smooth democratic transition and resulting economic buoyancy? Will political stability, good governance, satisfactory law and order, and peaceful public life pave the way for Bangladesh to become a middle income country by 2020? Will the optimist prove the pessimist wrong? Let's hope so.
The writer is a Professor at the Institute of Business Administration (IBA), University of Dhaka