OCTOBER 27

A senior BNP leader on condition of anonymity says he now firmly believes the ruling Awami League and the government will not change their stance on the general election. They will not make any compromise with the opposition parties on the election time government. In his view whoever is in power will take benefit of the nagging culture of confrontation that has plagued the country for a long time. He thinks the BNP would have followed the path the AL is now following had the former been in power now.
In support of his views, the BNP leader has referred to the situation that prevailed in 2006 when his party was in power and he was in charge of an important ministry. The uncompromising stance of the BNP-led Khaleda Zia government led to a political crisis that had foiled the parliamentary election scheduled for January 22, 2007.
An AL advisory council member supports the BNP leader's views. The senior AL leader strongly states that Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina will go ahead with her plan of making no concession to her archrival Khaleda Zia. "So, what can Khaleda do? She will have to play her card--either to join the election or to resist it," says the AL leader, wishing anonymity.
Amid such a situation two political analysts M Hafizuddin Khan, a former advisor to the caretaker government, and Nizam Ahmed, a professor of Public Administration at the University of Chittagong, see no ray of light at the end of the dark tunnel.
In their analyses, the two rival camps--AL and BNP--have reached the point of no return, shutting the door on dialogue.
Holding a dialogue between the two rival camps has appeared to be the toughest thing to do in today's politics, let alone find a solution to the current political standoff.
The situation was different before. The AL and BNP held a series of talks when they had waged agitations to oust the autocratic Ershad regime. After the fall of Ershad, they found themselves competing with each other to grab state power. Yet they had tried to overcome differences through talks after democracy was established in 1990. In the fifth parliament (1991-1995), senior leaders of the then ruling BNP and opposition AL had sat several times to resolve some parliamentary standoffs. Sometimes their efforts succeeded. They also moved to hold talks to resolve other political crises  outside of the parliament.
The practice continued in the seventh parliament (1996-2001), though the trend was declining.  A few meetings between senior leaders of then ruling AL and opposition BNP took place to resolve the parliamentary standoff in the seventh parliament.
The eighth parliament saw a reverse trend. No dialogue took place between the two leading ladies to bridge the gap between the two parties. Faced with tremendous public pressure to resolve the political crisis over the ninth parliamentary election, then the BNP government had moved to hold talks with the AL in the first quarter of 2006. The then ruling BNP had sought names of five AL leaders to sit in the talks. They also had nominated five leaders. That move went in vain.
The pressure continued to mount on them for holding talks. Finally the two parties agreed to hold talks at the secretary general level. Then BNP Secretary General Abdul Mannan Bhuiyan and AL General Secretary Abdul Jalil in October 2006 sat several times at the Jatiya Sangsad Bhaban. But the talks failed to yield any solution as both sides stuck to the guns.

Photo: Star File

Even at the end of October 2006, then President Iajuddin Ahmed opened talks with the parties to find a solution to the crisis over the appointment of the chief adviser of the caretaker government. His efforts also failed. And on advice of the BNP, he assumed the office of the Chief Adviser in addition to his functions as the President.
This time the situation remains even bleaker. No talks between ruling AL and BNP took place in about the past five years of the current ninth parliament. And at the end of its term in office, the AL has hardened its stance on the general election. They are not willing to hold any talks with the opposition parties.
People wholeheartedly want them to talk. The United Nations, the US and many other foreign countries want them to sit in a dialogue. A Facebook group even observed a token hunger strike to see them sit together for talks. But all efforts went in vain. Sheikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia remain indifferent to the demands for holding talks to end the ongoing political crisis over the next general election.
Amid such a situation the judiciary had stepped in. In response to a writ petition, the High Court issued a rule on March 27 on both the two top leaders, the prime minister and the leader of the opposition, to explain in four weeks why they should not be directed to sit for a dialogue.
In around six months, none of them responded to the court's ruling, showing their 'respect' for the rule of law.
Lawyers for both Hasina and Khaleda have earlier told The Daily Star that they had not replied to the ruling since the court had issued the order beyond its jurisdiction. Their argument is interesting. They questioned the jurisdiction of the court. They might have done this to please their respective supreme leaders.
Haven't the two top leaders crossed the limit by putting the people and the country in a dire situation? Election is knocking on the door. But the people are not sure whether the election will be held on time. Even many politicians have expressed the same feeling. The government and the ruling Awami have been speaking for holding the polls on time, but they have failed to generate an election mood.
The BNP-led opposition, on the other hand, has been claiming that they will wage street agitation to resist the election if it is held under the AL-led government. But the opposition parties have suddenly become quiet. Thus an abnormal situation now prevails in the country's political landscape.
Everybody is waiting for October 27 when the 90 days timeframe for holding the polls will begin. After the October 27, the ruling AL will start electioneering. And the BNP-led opposition parties will enforce agitation programmes to paralyse the capital to resist the government's bid to hold the polls.
Given the way the situation is developing, any of the two past incidents may repeat themselves: the AL-led government may hold the general election sans the participation of the BNP, something the BNP-led government did in 1996 by holding the February 15 general election in the same year without participation of AL, Jatiya Party, Jamaat-e-Islami and other parties. And the other one is-- repetition of January 11, 2007 like situation--declaration of the state of emergency amid growing political crisis.
Do Sheikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia know exactly what will take place after October 27? However, there is still time to make a game changing move. Further delay can snowball the situation out of their control.

The writer is Senior Reporter, The Daily Star.