Maldives polls seen as vote on ties with India

Maldives leader Ibrahim Mohamed Solih will seek re-election tomorrow in a presidential vote also serving as a referendum on his pursuit of renewed ties with India, the archipelago's traditional benefactor.

Solih, 61, moved swiftly to repair relations with New Delhi after defeating his predecessor Abdulla Yameen, who banked on China for loans and diplomatic support. Yameen was jailed for 11 years last December after a corruption conviction. He is not a candidate in tomorrow's vote, but is backing a proxy.

During his autocratic tenure, Yameen borrowed heavily from China for construction projects, making the nation -- better known for its upscale beach tourism and celebrity travellers -- a hotbed of geopolitical rivalry.

Solih's administration has criticised Beijing's lending as a debt trap and worked to restore the Maldives' traditional diplomatic posture after taking office.

International diplomacy would play a crucial role in the vote, former foreign minister Ahmed Shaheed told AFP.

Yameen's party is keeping up its "India Out" campaign, but his proxy Mohamed Muizzu, the mayor of the capital Male, has avoided risking his chances by openly criticising New Delhi.

"No one can be in power in Male after defying India," said Shaheed, who is now a law professor at University of Essex in Britain.

But a former Maldivian civil servant, who requested anonymity, said he believed China would regain its hold on the archipelago should Muizzu be elected.

Solih was a substitute candidate from his Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) in 2018 when its exiled high-profile leader Mohamed Nasheed was barred from contesting.

Nasheed, a globally recognised climate activist, had helped Solih secure an unexpected landslide win in the last election.

But the pair fell out earlier this year after years of squabbling over political reforms, and after both sought to become the MDP's presidential nominee. Analysts expect Solih to do well, but he could be in trouble if he fails to secure a majority in first round.

A run-off election usually helps the underdog in the Maldives, which has a history of opposition parties successfully uniting against the leading candidate.