Upper Riparian River-linking
Economy and environment under threat
Nearly forty years ago in the late sixtys we came across a news item that India was contemplating a river-linking project. The Indian river-linking project, regarded as a myth so long, turned a reality when the Supreme Court of India in 2002 authorized it. There are two components of the project: One, linking fourteen Himalayan rivers in northern India and the other connecting sixteen peninsular rivers including the Ganges and the Brahmaputra. Bangladesh has reportedly expressed its grave concern on the potential impacts of the project on both economy and environment of the country. It is apparent that the bulk of the waters for the project will come from the Brahmaputra and the Ganges, particularly the Brahmaputra, dwarfing the combined flow of other peninsular rivers.
The peninsular rivers, combined, will flow deep into the south through the water-hungry dry lands and water-thirsty deserts in the north, middle and south India. The main link canal will be virtually a large river flowing through Bihar, UP, Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Maharastra, Karnataka to Chennai. The project is apprehended to inflict irreversible and irrevocable damage to the economy and environment in Bangladesh.
Equitable sharing of waters
Unilateral withdrawal of Brahmaputra waters tantamounts to violation of UN Convention which regulates the flow of international transboundary rivers/drainage basins. There must be serious negotiations between India, Nepal and Bangladesh and exchange of information on survey, planning and design data of the project. Some of the fundamental principles of the international law is that the holder of a right must exercise it in a manner not injurious to others. Negotiation for a fair and equitable share of water of the Brahmaputra and other rivers must start now between India and Bangladesh, perhaps better will be trilateral negotiation involving Nepal on whose land about seven dams and reservoirs will be built for hydropower generation and augmentation of water for beneficial use in India, Bangladesh and Nepal.
Nepal will contribute its precious land territory for the dams and reservoirs, hence it is their legitimate right to access to water and power. What about Bangladesh? Our share vis-a-vis our obligation, an investment, if any, should be negotiated and settled. Negotiation about sharing of water of the Brahmaputra and that of the Nepalese rivers, should be not only on quantity of water, but also to ensure its monitoring, measurement and availability at the Ganges and Brahmaputra borders with Bangladesh. We have dire need of shared water and power from India and Nepal.
Without monitoring and measuring at the border of the Ganges and Brahmaputra with Bangladesh it is doubtful whether the agreed quantity is available there. That's why the Ganges in the lean season in Bangladesh is virtually dry or has just a trickling flow, with formation of shoals (chars).
Diversion of the Brahmaputra waters
The proposed Indian river-linking project will virtually change the course of the huge river from its age-old natural N-S direction to an uphill adverse E-W direction, which means, may be almost the entire flow of the river will be diverted. We must know the designed rate of diversion flow. Fair share of water must be negotiated and agreed upon. Now it was analyzed that the average recorded low flow discharge in the months of Dec-May (6 months) is of the order of 6,000 cubic meter per second. It is presumed that an appreciable portion for the whole flow during the lean season will be diverted.
This flow will total to 200 billion cubic meter of water for the six dry months. The Brahmaputra basin downstream will turn dry with direct and peripheral adverse effects in the entire Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna basin (GBM). The result will be catastrophic and devastating both upon our economy and environment. Obviously, there will be serious adverse impacts on agriculture, water supply, irrigation, fishery, forestry, groundwater and environment. There will be serious saline water intrusion.
The Padma-Meghna basin will also suffer from low flow with serious consequence of siltation and deposition of sediments which will affect navigation and increase severity of flooding. The Padma-Meghna basin will be affected by saline water intrusion polluting the surface and groundwater. At present for the huge upland flow, salinity is pushed by the coast in the lower Meghna basin.
Chinese plan for diversion of the Brahmaputra
China plans to construct a dam at Yarlung Tsangpo point on the Brahmaputra river in Tibet to divert 200 billion cubic meter of water annually to the Yellow River. As mentioned earlier this will amount to a flow rate of 6,000 cubic meter of water per second which is equal to the entire dry reason (Dec-May) flow of the Brahmaputra. If China diverts such a huge quantity of water, what then will remain for India to withdraw? It is an ironic paradox. However, it is a serious matter of utmost importance for Bangladesh. Both India and Bangladesh are curious and serious to see how the Chinese plan moves. So, for any action on diversion of water from the Brahmaputra, China must be involved in negotiation on fair and equitable sharing of water for mutual benefits among India, China and Bangladesh. China's diversion will put further pressure on Bangladesh's share.
Adverse impacts
Just imagine suddenly a live vibrant flowing massive river turning dry and decadent! Low flow will cause sedimentation, raise river beds creating obstruction to navigation. High bed level will also cause flooding, huge flood flows will be released from India as well as China during the monsoons.
Adverse effects will be all pervasive in all the economic activities like agriculture, drinking water supply, industries, navigation, fisheries, forestry and what not.
Groundwater level will also deplete consequentially making the common dugwells and shallow tubewells dry, affecting rural as well as urban water supply. Numberous distributaries and side channels will turn dry affecting water supply in rural areas, causing health hazards and putting the very living of the people at stake.
Fishery will be severely affected, transforming millions of fishermen jobless, thus hitting a vital part of economy of the country.
There will be serious degradation of environment, water will be polluted, turn the soil infertile, barren and degraded.
Economic crisis and environmental decay will seriously pervade the whole GBM basin spreading over thousands of square kilometers may be more than half of the country. A land of abundance of water will soon just cry for it.
Some suggestions
A fair and equitable share of water should be negotiated and agreed upon for the Brahmaputra, Ganges and rivers in Nepal. There should be mechanism of implementation and monitoring of flow (in cusecs or cumecs) measured at the source and at exit point at borders with Bangladesh.
China has plan to divert 200 billion meter cube of water from the Brahmaputra to its Yellow river. 200 billion cubic meter is equivalent to 6,000 cubic meter of water per second, which is, as said, our Dec-May (6 months) average total lean season flow rate. India, Bangladesh and China must negotiate and decide the sharing trilaterally.
Two dams in Nepal are under construction by India for hydropower generation and augmentation of water for rivers, perhaps mainly Ganges water flow of which a good part may eventually be diverted to the south through the link canal. Five more dams will be constructed by India. Nepal is contributing its precious land and water resource in its territory. As such it can rightly claim a fair share of hydroelectricity and water. India having been financing the project can claim a good share. What about Bangladesh? Our share should be agreed upon to earn legitimacy in the trilateral negotiation. The deal would ultimately be beneficial for us.
Sharing of waters of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Nepalese and other rivers will be negotiated among India, Bangladesh, Nepal,. China and perhaps, Bhutan.
EIA study for the Indian river-linking project and Chinese unilateral diversion of the Brahmaputra river must be made available to Bangladesh in order to examine what it entails and what potential damages might occur and mitigation measures to be taken in dlower riparian Bangladesh. The damages must be quantified and expressed in monetary terms to determine as to who will bear the cost for mitigating potential damages, both economic and environmental, in Bangladesh. The upper riparian country holding the right is presumed to correct the damages outlined in mitigation measures of the EIA.
The Brahmaputra and the Ganges in the original layout and form with cool and wet nature are apprehended to turn hot, dry and hostile due to drastic withdrawal. Climate change caused by scarcity of water in the rivers and degraded environment will force the farmers to change to low-yielding dry farming which they are not familiar with. Over the years climate change will increase in intensity and severity. The Indian river-linking project will be directly responsible for the deplorable state of affairs emanating from the effects of withdrawal of waters and diversion of rivers.
Bangladesh may claim damages from the upper riparians as a result of causing this dismal economic crisis and creating severe environmental degradation of catastrophic magnitude and dimension. If the concerned upper riparian(s) undertake necessary measures for correction of damages as recommended in the 'mitigation measures' of the EIA report, it is by far the better solution.