Myanmar's reform miracle stalls

THE East Asia Summit in Myanmar's capital Naypyidaw last week was meant to be the country's crowning glory, and evidence that the government had successfully introduced political and economic reforms.

While many Myanmar government leaders admit that there is still much to be done, especially in education, health and social welfare, many of the world and regional leaders in Myanmar for the summit must have been dismayed to see the reality -- there are few tangible results from the political and economic reform process started nearly four years ago, when Thein Sein became president and formed a quasi-civilian administration.

“Even though there may be some moves that seem to be backsliding, in my view they are the reality checks we have to face on the bumpy road to democracy,” the president's chief political advisor, Ko Ko Hlaing told me recently. “No reform in the world has been flawless and smooth. Compared to other transitions -- like Indonesia and Korea in the early years of their reform -- ours is much better and peaceful,” he insisted.

But the reality is that Myanmar's political and economic reform process has run aground. Thein Sein's government has been virtually impotent for months, with little progress to show, despite the talk of the reform process entering the third stage. In fact, the roll out of the new mobile networks has hit significant snags, the much-trumpeted peace process is beginning to unravel, and foreign investment is stagnating.

The country's pro-democracy leader and head of the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD), Aung San Suu Kyi, put it bluntly last week at a press conference on the eve of the summit, when she warned the western powers, including the United States, that they had been too optimistic and gullible in believing that Thein Sein was committed to the transition to democracy.

“If they really study the situation in this country they would know that this reform process started stalling early last year,” she said. “In fact, I would like to challenge those who talk so much about the reform process, [to point out] what significant reform steps have been taken within the last 24 months?”  

There is no doubt that for more than a year now, the reform process had indeed stalled. Few concrete decisions are being made, and any economic progress that may have been achieved in the first two years of the Thein Sein government has petered out. Even the president's political advisers admit that the reform process has lost momentum.

Amid the government inertia, the biggest problem is that the farmers and the poor people in the urban areas have not reaped any benefits from the reform process. “For them there has been no democracy-dividend,” said Khine Win -- a social commentator and head of the Myanmar NGO, the Sandhi Governance Institute. “The gap between the powerful and the powerless is extremely wide; and it's growing wider all the time. The resources are concentrated in the rulers' hands, with daily land grabs constantly exacerbating the situation.”    

“We want democracy, we want freedom and we want a better life,” said a taxi driver, Win Lwin, who lives on the outskirts of Yangon. “But since this government came to power, prices have risen -- my rent has doubled in the last twelve months, there is greater shortage of electricity, work as a taxi driver is even harder, and I earn even less than before,” he said.    

But this was almost inevitable, as the Thein Sein government was never really committed to democratisation and economic liberalism. “Guided democracy” was always the lasting mantra inherited from Than Shwe -- the former military leader who finally retired in January 2011 -- when he handed over power to the current quasi-civilian government.

They had only one main mission: to get Myanmar accepted by the international community and to roll back sanctions. Having done that more quickly than expected, they are at a loss to know what to do next. “There is no over-all strategic plan, everything is done on an ad hoc basis,” said one of the many advisors to the president, who declined to be identified.

There is no consistency within government on its development plan for the future, or agreement on any immediate goals. For example, the head of the newly reformed MIC, energy minister Zayar Aung, told foreign investors and Myanmar business analysts earlier this year that he would not entertain any joint venture that was worth less than $300 million. Smaller schemes, he believes, would not have a significant impact on the country before the end of 2015 to help boost the ruling party's popularity in the forthcoming elections.

While there is a strong construction boom, especially in Yangon, there is no overall economic strategy. Efforts at privatisation have stalled: “Official information and data on what has been privatised, how and why it was done, and outcomes … are hard to come by,” the president's chief economic advisor, U Myint, told a commerce ministry seminar last month.

Foreign investment has ground to a trickle, after the halcyon days of the country's initial opening up when Thein Sein came into office as president nearly four years ago because of government administrative failure, the campaign to change the constitution and the forthcoming elections.

In the countryside things are even worse. “There is no agrarian reform,” said Turnell. “In fact farmers -- who make up some 80% of the workforce -- are worse off. And for at least 70%, there is no prospect for any improvement soon.”

In the end, there is little to commend the Thein Sein government's reform process to the outside world. “There is no rule of law; and the government still directly or indirectly controls everything, including the media,” said Bo Kyi, who runs the leading association for political prisoners and returned to Yangon recently after years in exile. Things are better, but they haven't really changed he mused. “There is some space, we can meet people, but we cannot go beyond that.”

The writer is a freelance correspondent and political analyst based in Bangkok.