Diabetes set to devastate India’s metropolitan cities

Disturbing new research published in Diabetologia (the journal of the European Association for the Study of Diabetes) shows that more than half of men (55%) and some two thirds (65%) of women currently aged 20 years in India will likely develop diabetes in their lifetime, with most of those cases (around 95%) likely to be type 2 diabetes (T2D). The research is from a team of authors in India, the UK and the USA, led by Dr Shammi Luhar, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, UK.

India already has a significant health burden caused by diabetes: estimates suggest 77 million adults currently have diabetes and this number is expected to almost double to 134 million by 2045. Urbanisation, decreasing diet quality and decreased levels of physical activity are all contributing to this hidden epidemic. Since urban centres are continuing to grow rapidly across the country, the authors, in this new research, aimed to estimate the probability of a metropolitan (urban-based) Indian of any age or body mass index (BMI) developing diabetes in their lifetime.

The authors estimate that the lifetime risk of developing diabetes in 20-year-old men and women free of diabetes today is 56% and 65%, respectively. Women generally had a higher lifetime risk across the lifespan. The remaining lifetime risk of developing diabetes declined with age: the authors estimated that for those currently aged 60 years and currently free of diabetes, around 38% of women and 28% of men would go on to develop diabetes.

The authors say: "The remarkably high lifetime risk of developing diabetes and the low diabetes-free life expectancy in India's metropolitan cities, especially for individuals with high BMI, implies that interventions targeting the incidence of diabetes may be of paramount importance moving forward."