We have to know when infections will peak

We are extremely worried by the exponential increase in infection rates and the rising number of daily deaths due to Covid-9. What is even more concerning is that we seem to be going into a blind alley with no clue regarding when the infection rates will peak—which is essential to predict the downtrend. Experts have alluded to the government's "unscientific" and "vague" strategy as the cause for this uncertainty, which has left us completely in the dark regarding how long it will take for infection rates to fall.

Calling the lockdown from March 26 extending to May 30 a "holiday" for example, led to confusion and indiscriminate movement of people, thus spreading the virus to the districts. Then, announcements of partial reopening without clear guidelines brought another influx of people, mainly garment workers, to join the factories. Despite efforts to enforce lockdowns, with police trying to ensure social distancing, people have been moving about within their localities, crowding kitchen markets and other public places, as well as moving in between the districts and the cities.

In the last 14 days, the DGHS officially reported 40,366 Covid-19 cases and an official death toll of over 1,200. Unfortunately, the actual numbers are most likely many times higher due to the low rate of testing. Without widespread testing, how can we determine the infection rates and the number of deaths due to Covid-19? Measures such as hoisting red flags in front of buildings with Covid-19 patients by the police have resulted in many people hiding their symptoms to avoid being stigmatised, complicating the situation further.

At this point, the government must listen to public health experts and adopt a scientific, specific strategy with clear guidelines to the public. The categorising of areas into red, yellow and green zones must be done in an organised manner, and the level of testing must be scaled up according to the rates of infection.

We urge the government to heed the advice of health experts, which includes immediately forming a national committee headed by such experts with at least 500 subcommittees to oversee the various zones, and include local police, administration and representatives, with health officials taking the lead. These sub committees would be responsible for all the steps needed to contain the spread of the virus—identifying positive cases, contact tracing, ensuring daily necessities for city dwellers as well as hospital facilities for critical patients, and so on.

Communicating these strategies to the public is crucial since there are still major gaps in understanding among people regarding the importance of lockdowns and social distancing. People also have to have confidence that the government is taking the right steps to contain the virus. Only a well-planned out, coordinated strategy that is based on a holistic, scientific approach with the help of experts and other specialised groups can lead to progress in the fight against Covid-19.