Dragon sees, dragon does

THERE was no Google and there was no gmail. It was -3 degrees in Beijing and your columnist hopelessly looked for access to the virtual space. A young man in his early 20's from Bangladesh studying Fine Arts in Beijing had answers to my problem: Baidu in place of Google and 123.com in place of Gmail. That was it! Though the English results from the Chinese Baidu were far from being close to Google's efficiency, it was still an alternative.

In spite of Winter peaking in Beijing the land seemed to be breathing warm air across the region. The think tanks, policy makers and academics seem to be syncing with the globe with more optimism and positivity than ever. Starting from APEC, ASEM (Asia-Europe Meeting), G20 to BRICS, China has been active all over the globe. The focus now is visibly the six economic corridors that China wants to build, of which two most are important: the Bangladesh, China, India, Myanmar one and the China-Pakistan one. Rest four connects to Europe, Middle East, Singapore, Turkey, Russia, Iran and Mongolia. And the new silk road that China so wants to build is going to be all about Infrastructure and cooperation on Trade and Economy, Financial institutions, Energy, Industrial Investment, Culture/educational exchange, environmental and maritime boundaries. It is indeed time to retrace the Asian Renaissance.

The positive  message that was sent out during Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit from both Chinese and the American ends was also very clear: these two sides are not warring at any cost anytime soon. China and the European Union also seem to be recalibrating. However, one question that plagues the mind is a relatively simple one: how are the South Asian states going to align themselves today? While we are attracting attention from all the meaningful powers of the world, who do the smaller states in South Asia strategically position themselves with? Is healthy alignment a necessity today? How serious is China itself ?  While most of the questions will be answered by Time, the last question will perhaps be best answered below:

Where is Yiwu? Most of us may not know.  It's in Zhejiang province in China that has just launched a cargo train with Madrid, 3 days ago. The train that will run for 13000 km has 82 containers and originates from the largest commodity market in Yiwu and runs through Central Asia from Western China and enters Europe to connect with Spain. The other countries that are touched in the route are Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus, Poland, Germany and France. The train from Yiwu will reach Madrid in 21 days. Ever since the Chinese President Xi Jinping announced a 50 billion dollar fund for the 21stcentury Silk Road Economic Belt and Maritime Silk road, things have been moving fast.

So China is serious, really serious about connectivity. BCIM initiative is one of the issues that are prioritized in their agenda. Why would Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar connectivity be important for the region? To put it simply, BCIM will connect around 440 million people in these four countries and cover an area of 1.65 million square kilometers which will include multiple functions in multiple zones including transport hubs, production centers, financial centers and much more. In order to turn this into a reality, an investment into people-to-people contact is essential along with all the governments working on both bilateral and multilateral platforms at the same time and pace.

How is China doing now? Some say that the Chinese miracle has come to an end and that the GDP growth may very well come down to four percent eventually. There's also talk that if 7% can be sustained by China over the next ten years then Chinese economy would double in size. The catch-22 scenario pops up when one reads about the property bubble and the banking crisis in China, which is prompted by the private sector debts being almost 200% of GDP. This harsh reality can probably be balanced by innovation, more productivity and more consumer-spending. One must also remember that per-capita GDP of China in 2013, according to World Bank, was $6807, almost the same as Iraq and South Africa, whereas US is at $55143 and South Korea at $25977. Also starting from 650 million poor in 1978, China's number of poor has come down to $82 million and is spread over 14 poverty clusters in Central and Western China.

Reality is, China is at crossroads now. While critical income disparity has hit China,  globally it is mostly Chinese presence which is becoming visible in the map. The Chinese outward foreign direct investment is increasing  every year. Starting from Chinese FDI amounting to $629 million in 1985, $913 million in 1991, $50 billion in 2008, $74.65 billion in 2011, $77.22 billion in 2012, China's FDI in the globe today totals over $300 billion dollars running across 170 countries. This change began to take place almost after the Asian economic crisis in 1997-1998 when the Second Plenary Session of the 15th Central Committee of the CPC decided that a number of state owned enterprises would invest abroad and run factories in Africa, Central Asia, Middle East, Central Europe, South America and other regions. In 2001, China's “Going Out” policy was formalized while China acceded to World Trade Organization, which made sense for China to go global. At a time when global markets oscillate on a seasonal basis, it is perhaps best for Asia to stay together. Therefore, for all practical purposes,  it makes sense for the Chinese dragon to crisscross all over the globe and finally come back home to its own nest in Asia.

Where is Bangladesh placed in all this? After July 1, 2010 when the Chinese government awarded a duty free status for RMG exports from Bangladesh, exports have been steadily rising. In 2013-14 the figure is touching close to $300 million dollars. Since there is a potential to substantially push this figure, both sides need to invest in each other's strengths and make optimum use of available opportunities...

During most meetings and seminars in Beijing over the last two days, the  Chinese spoke only in Chinese and their electronic presentations were also not in English. With every sentence, there was an interpreter communicating what was being said. But wIth the Q&A session, one thing that became clear was their relative proficiency in English. Most of them seemed to know English well and yet chose not to speak the alien tongue. At times like this, one ought to remember that nations have the right to be proud, if and when it's time. And it's certainly time for the Asian pipers to play their own tune.

The writer is Managing Director, Mohammadi Group.