Demystifying Modi mandate

STOOPING to conquer' -- The Times of India phrased Narendra Modi's reverential forehead-touching on the stairway to the Lok Sabha. This was one of the few firsts that Modi's ascent to power has been enacted.
Another first is his upcoming oath taking ceremony at the forecourt of the Rashtrapati Bhavan with 3,000 invitees to mark the grand occasion. To optimists the invitation of Saarc heads of governments and states signals New Delhi's prioritising good relations with the immediate neighbourhood.
This is a statement, if you like, of a man out to prove that he is not the divisive or arrogant person that his detractors would like to have us believe. Early into his victory he voiced his willingness to work with others.
Indeed, he has no choice but to. BJP in the present Rajya Sabha is in a minority while the Congress is in a majority. The Congress-led UPA with its 102 representatives in the 245-member Upper Chamber had to struggle in garnering support from regional parties to pass important bills. One only remembers how former Congress external affairs minister Salman Khurshid's repeated attempts at raising the Indo-Bangla border demarcation accord in Rajya Sabha fell through the cracks of BJP-Trinamool reservations -- in fact, in both Houses of the Indian Legislature.
The BJP-led NDA with only 65 members in the Rajya Sabha will stumble in lawmaking for sure, let alone pushing through the unresolved legislative agenda concerning Bangladesh. No one should be deluded into thinking that because BJP has a decisive majority in Lok Sabha, it will be a cakewalk for the party in carrying out legislative business, particularly that centering around Indo-Bangla issues.
The only hope for a BJP breakthrough rests on one-third of the Rajya Sabha seats falling vacant towards the end of 2016. Almost two years on, elections will be due in several states and should the BJP and its allies do well in the polls could they be securing an advantage in Rajya Sabha.
The extraordinary invocation of Article 118 of the constitution to hold a joint session of parliament to end a legislative deadlock is an exceptional option that had better be set aside.
It needs to be noted that for all her handsome victories in the Lok Sabha contests in West Bengal, Mamata is not smiling, wears a concerned look. This is because the loss of left front votes was not the gain for Trinamool-Congress but rather for the BJP. That is where Mamata sees a BJP rise as an alternative force in West Bengal. BJP's win butters the bread on the wrong side for Mamata which may cast a shadow over the centre's relations with the state, perhaps with implications for some of Bangladesh's outstanding issues with India.
Incidentally, one extreme reaction to BJP triumph in Pakistan is reflected through Friday Times' advisory editor Raja Rumi's comment: “Modi's victory reminds most Pakistanis that two-nation theory in a way may have been proven right.” Such is the sense of déjà vu in Pakistan. Add to this, BJP's manifesto agenda to annul Article 370 in Kashmir which would take away the special status of the state. The obvious reaction to this will be more commotion in Kashmir going perhaps to Pakistan's advantage.
Creation of Bangladesh, let's not forget, marked an unceremonious burial of the two-nation theory based on religion as the sole determinant of nationhood. That is the difference in the perspectives from which Pakistan and Bangladesh look at India. Secularism has been the point of commonality between India and Bangladesh. We cannot allow it to be diluted by any shortsighted policy orientation in either country.
We cannot be oblivious though to the downside of the BJP's popular mandate.
An apprehension cannot be brushed aside that Modi may walk the path of Hindutva he has been accustomed to treading so long. He may like Hindutva to flourish, a possibility underscored by his decision that birth anniversary centennial of Deen Dayal Upaddhaya, a vanguard of the philosophy, will be celebrated throughout India in 2015. This would be happening for the first time in secular democratic India. Also berths of ministership may go to RSS and Shiv Sena, the two hardcore fundamentalist outfits of the Bharatiya Janata Party.
Will the moderation of Atal Bihari Vajpayee have any foothold in the corridors of power?
Another flipside to the popular mandate is writ large in the findings of the Association for Democratic Reforms in India. The observer group predicted the 16th Lok Sabha to be the richest, with 34% of the new MPs facing criminal charges. The figures in 2009 and 2004 stood at 30% and 24%, respectively.
Admittedly though, this is a sub-continental feature encompassing Pakistan and Bangladesh in varying degrees. This puts a question mark on the quality of leadership electorates tend to choose in an atmosphere simmering with money and muscle powers.
One cannot but help marvel at the tenacity of Priyanka Gandhi in securing the victories for her mother Sonia Gandhi in Rai Bareily and sibling Rahul Gandhi in Amethi against the raging BJP wave in UP. It was a close call for Rahul Gandhi as against BJP candidate Indrani but Priyanka turned it around for him. This was both a tribute to a competently conducted campaign as well as a measure of love for Nehru-Gandhi family. The dazzle of dynastic lineage may have lost its lustre but the lamp keeps shedding a mellowing light.
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The writer is Associate Editor, The Daily Star.
E-mail: husain.imam@thedailystar.net