Govt must prepare for possible massive earthquake: experts
Bangladesh may face a massive earthquake in the very near future. Therefore, the government should take necessary preparations like building awareness among citizens, monitoring and maintaining building code, and assessing existing buildings with collaboration of private sector, said speakers at a roundtable yesterday.
The Daily Star and GPH-Ispat jointly organised the virtual roundtable titled "Earthquake Risks in Bangladesh and Our Preparedness". On this day in 1897, about 1,600 people died in different places -- including Sylhet, Sunamganj and Dhaka -- in the "Assam earthquake".
Prof Syed Humayun Akhter of geology department at Dhaka University (DU) said a seismic gap, a part of an active fault that may produce major earthquakes but has not experienced much seismic activity for a long time, is present from Chattogram to Sylhet.
This can result in an 8.2 to 9 magnitude earthquake and be the main source of a massive earthquake in Bangladesh.
Another danger zone is in Dauki fault, which runs through the north-eastern part of Bangladesh. It can be a reason for 7.5-8 magnitude earthquakes, he said.
"Earthquakes had not occurred in this area for hundreds of years, and that is the biggest fear for us. Because lots of energy is saved there at this moment," he said, adding that this is only scientific data for people to take necessary preparation, not to spread panic.
Speakers said both sources of earthquakes are near Dhaka, which is an unplanned city. People need awareness about earthquakes and have to maintain building codes. Old buildings should be rechecked to see whether they have earthquake-resistant construction, and the government should have a proper plan, which includes pre- and post-earthquake moments.
Prof Mehedi Ahmed Ansary of civil engineering department at Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology discussed the building assessment process and conceptualising the possible threat.
"We have some awareness, but we don't have experience of facing a 7 or 8 magnitude earthquake. So, we need to form an idea about a possible massive earthquake and the casualties that might result from it," he said.
"There are two parts of building assessment: one for new buildings and another for old ones. New buildings should follow the building code, and it only takes Tk 100 per square feet to build an earthquake-resistant structure," Prof Ansary said.
"Of existing buildings in Dhaka, five lakh have no [earthquake] resistance, so it should be assessed. It's a lengthy process, but we can assess them in five years. It's high time to start the assessment process," he continued.
In 2016, a committee chaired by renowned scholar and noted engineer Prof Jamilur Reza Choudhury -- who recently passed away -- suggested Rajuk to appoint different consulting firms in eight zones for assessment, but Rajuk did not take any action, he added.
Prof Mahbuba Nasreen, director of DU's Institute of Disaster Management and Vulnerability Studies, said the government alone cannot assess buildings; it should engage the private sector for the job.
Shamsuddoza Sajen of The Daily Star conducted the roundtable.