Global warming above 1.5C threatens SDGs

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) set by the global community are unlikely to be achieved in case the target of limiting global warming to 1.5-degree Celsius fails permanently, climate experts said at a seminar in Dhaka yesterday.

“Though extremely difficult, we must make every effort to cap the global warming at 1.5 degree Celsius, or development would be extremely difficult,” said Thomas Hirsch, chief executive of Germany-based Climate and Development Advice.

By 2030, a 1.5C rise in global temperature would still put 120 million more people in poverty posing a real threat to the SDG of no poverty, he said in a presentation at the seminar on sharing a report on climate change by ACT Alliance, a global coalition of churches.

ACT Alliance, German Protestant development agency Brot fur die Welt (Bread for the World), and Christian Commission for Development in Bangladesh organised it at The Daily Star Centre. 

In the light of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's special report, finalised this month, on the impacts of the 1.5C rise above pre-industrial levels, he said restricting the rise to 1.5C would save 40 million people from hunger compared to 2C. The success of achieving the target would also protect 270 million people against water scarcity, he said.

The current emission level of annual greenhouse gases at 42 gigatons globally must fall to at least 30 gigatons by 2030 to make way for the 1.5C target, said Thomas, lead author of the ACT Alliance report. “But in view of the current climate deal compliance, most countries are not on the track.”

While Asia and Africa are projected to suffer most from climate change impacts, half of the 90 percent of the population exposed to climate vulnerability are in South Asia, he said.

In the present realities of compliance with Kyoto Protocol and Paris Agreement, however, limiting warming to 2C would be a great achievement, as the world is heading for a 3C rise, said Fazle Rabbi Sadeque Ahmed, a director of Palli Karma Sahayak Foundation (PKSF).   

Unless the globally promised fund for climate adaptation and mitigation is released as expected, Bangladesh as one of the least developed countries should go ahead for development the way the developed world has done it, he said.    

Failure to stay at 1.5C would foil climate adaptation and resilience initiatives, said Md Shamsuddoha, an author of the ACT Alliance report, in his presentation.     

If global warming exceeds the target, the consequent sea-level rise would cause salinity intrusion and permanent inundation of territories, coastline and infrastructure, he said. 

M Asaduzzaman, a distinguished fellow of Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies, also spoke at the seminar while PKSF Chairman Dr Qazi Kholiquzzaman moderated it.