Covid-19 cases may rise in summer, experts predict
Experts at a seminar yesterday predicted that the number of Covid-19 cases may increase in the upcoming months.
Bangladesh Health Reporters' Forum (BHRF) organised the event at Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujib Medical University (BSMMU)
At the seminar titled "One Year of Covid-19: Success and Challenges", experts cited some key factors that may contribute to this rise, such as previous infection trends in Bangladesh, emergence of new variants, increased mobility and gradual decline of hygiene practices.
However, they said they are hopeful that despite this rise, the situation will not go out of control due to improved immune response, vaccination and enhanced capacity of the country's health system.
Renowned virologist Prof Dr Nazrul Islam, former VC of BSMMU said, "We have already seen that Covid-19 cases have increased in the first week of this month. Previously we had thought that Covid-19 may hit Bangladesh harder in winter."
"According to our observation, three types of respiratory viruses (influenza A, parainfluenza 3 and respiratory syncytial virus) become very active in winter and infect a large number of our population and in summer, the infection rate declines. Our hypothesis is due to these predominant types of respiratory viruses, the novel coronavirus could not make significant interference among this population," he said.
"In absence of the predominant respiratory viruses, the novel coronavirus may get a stronger grip. So, this summer we may experience a new and mild wave of coronavirus infection," he added.
Prof Dr Nasima Sultana, additional director general, directorate general of health services; Prof Dr Kanak Kanti Barua, vice-chancellor of BSMMRU; Dr Md Ehteshamul Huq Choudhury, secretary general, Bangladesh Medical Association; Professor Dr Mohammod Shahidullah of Bangladesh Medical and Dental Council and Health Minister Zahid Maleque were also present at the seminar.
"In the previous year, we had seen that the infection and death rates were highest in June, July and August. However, capacity of our health system has improved a lot in the last one year," said Professor Dr Nasima Sultana in her speech.
"We have recruited and trained thousands of new doctors. We have isolation centres equipped with more than 3,000 beds. We have sufficient number of Covid-19 ICU and high flow nasal cannula. We have started first phase of our vaccination program and gradually 80 percent of our population will get the vaccine. So, we hope the situation will be very much under control in the future," added Dr Nasima.
Experts have emphasised on research on Covid-19 and in-house vaccine development during the seminar. The doctors also demanded incentive for the physicians and frontline health workers.
Professor Dr Kanak Kanti Barua, vice-chancellor of BSMMRU said, "We should do more research on Covid-19 infection trends in Bangladesh. If funds can be allocated, what Professor Dr Nazrul and IEDCR is predicting can be furnished into an amazing scientific paper. Their findings can also contribute to the global response against the disease."
Professor Dr Mohammod Shahidullah said, "We should also conduct research on developing vaccines in our own country. We have globally renowned pharmaceutical companies who have the capacity to develop vaccines in their own plants."
Dr. Md Ehteshamul Huq Choudhury, secretary general, Bangladesh Medical Association said, "126 doctors, five dentists and 12 other types of health workers have died of COVID-19 infection. However, none of these health workers except one got any compensation from the government."
"Since the pandemic is still here and its effects may increase in the future, the government should allocate incentives for the health workers so that they feel more motivated to do their job," he added.
Health minister Zahid Maleque assured that the government is ready to allocate more funds for Covid-19 research and projects are underway to develop Covid-19 vaccines in Bangladesh.
"We need certification from World Health Organization to develop Covid-19 vaccines in Bangladesh. We are in the process of getting this certification for our laboratory run by the directorate general of drug administration. We shall also work with private pharmaceutical companies in this regard," said minister Zahid Maleque.
"Prime Minister has asserted that there will be no fund shortage for procuring vaccines and to conduct research on Covid-19," added Maleque.
He also requested people to maintain social distance, wear masks and maintain all necessary safety measures to prevent the spread of coronavirus.
"We must remember that Covid-19 is still here and unless and until the whole world is free from Covid-19, we are not safe," said the health minister.