Can there be peace?

THAT'S the 24 million dollar question staring in the eye for President Abbas, Premier Netanyahu and the world at large today. There are those in the Middle East who believe that the Palestinian cause is a lost cause. This is a notion that is shared by many beyond the Middle East and the hawks in Jerusalem. Looking at the facts as they have happened over the preceding weeks and months, what do we have? Three Jewish teenagers murdered. A Palestinian young man murdered by Jewish extremists, the abysmal failure by the leadership of Palestine and the Jewish state to agree on the broad points by a peace process brokered by the American administration. And it is back to business as usual. Bomb them back to the Stone Age so that they never pluck up the courage to cross the line again. Of course, no one is asking whether it was the Palestinians who killed those teenagers in the first place. The mantra remains the same: Kill, maim, bomb, period. But will it bring peace?
It took the Security Council three days to agree on the wording of the statement addressing the latest flare-up. Three days, whilst the Israeli war machine went into action against crude rockets. Bombing and strafing, killing and maiming the old and the young, especially the young. If you take PM Netanyahu's recent statements at face value, we can expect shortly, a ground offensive to take care of “terrorists” in Gaza. What terrorists? The Hamas leadership who were voted into power by Gaza residents, are we talking about those “terrorists”? Probably; as estimated by the United Nations, more than 160 people have been killed, of whom nearly 80% are civilians. Civilians are not combatants, they are unarmed civilians. So precisely why they are being targeted remains the big question; and where is the hue-and-cry one associates with Western media and public reaction when confronted with murder of unarmed civilians when it comes to Gaza?
Leaving aside lukewarm reaction of the “free world” to what is happening today in the Palestinian territories; the fact is that the present Israeli coalition government believes that the only way to eliminate Hamas is through reoccupation. But let us face the facts, ladies and gentlemen. That is not possible and history will testify to it. Back in 2008, during the standoff between Israel and Hamas, everything between the baby cot and the kitchen sink was thrown against Hamas. Eventually a ceasefire came into effect -- by Israel, which announced a ceasefire on its own. In the 2009 flare-up, Egypt acted as negotiator and a ceasefire came into effect. In each case, Israel stopped short of full-scale military invasion with the intent to occupy, hunt down and exterminate with extreme prejudice the political leadership of Gaza.
The tragedy of Palestine is not merely due to Israel. The failure of the leaderships of the Fattah and Hamas to cooperate remains an Achilles heel. There is no doubt that President Abbas is not in a position, for whatever reason, to confront Israel militarily. Nor he is able to control Hamas.The impotence of Fattah has only worked in favour of Hamas. But is Hamas prepared for an Israeli invasion? Equally important, are the Israeli people prepared for another prolonged occupation of Palestinian territory that will inevitably produce more violence rather than bring peace? It is curious to think about Netanyahu, called by some commentators as “the man stuck in the middle,” as he sits precariously on a throne, beset on both sides by the “right” and “left” (of centre) political forces. The longer this conflict is played out, the higher the chances of military escalation -- but can Netanyahu afford another occupation?
So many questions, yet there is truly one answer. The solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conundrum is certainly not military, it is diplomatic. And in the final analysis of things, only Washington can deliver. Even if a ceasefire brokered by Washington is reached (and there is no reason to suspect otherwise), precisely how long will this breather last? As pointed out by Aaron Miller in an article recently: “Israel isn't prepared to pay the political, economic or psychological price that would come with occupying Gaza or launching a massive military intervention to destroy Hamas as an organisation. Indeed, there are no solutions, only another outcome that may buy Israel a temporary quiet but won't eliminate Hamas's rockets.” That basically sums up the situation in a nutshell.

The writer is Assistant Editor, The Daily Star.