WB’s GDP growth forecast inconsistent: Kamal

Finance Minister AHM Mustafa Kamal has said the World Bank's latest forecast about the growth of Bangladesh's gross domestic product does not reflect the ongoing economic recovery. 

"The GDP growth forecast made by the World Bank is inconsistent with the current economic revival in Bangladesh," he said.

In its twice-a-year regional update on Thursday, the Washington-based lender maintained its GDP growth forecast for Bangladesh at 1.6 per cent for the current fiscal year and 3.4 per cent for the next fiscal year, assuming that the impact of the Covid-19 crisis would extend.

The government has targeted 8.2 per cent GDP growth in the current fiscal year.

In a press release, Kamal said the characteristic of the WB's forecast is very conservative. If anyone tallied all the forecasts made so far by the WB, they would find how far these estimates are from reality.

"We think the WB has published a traditional forecast," the minister said.

"We set our targets based on our capacity and we achieve them. This year, we will also pull off the target and prove that our targets were right."

The WB has come up with the same GDP growth numbers it has been making since the economy started to slow down because of the impacts of the pandemic, Kamal said. 

"Three months of the current fiscal year have passed and there are still nine months left."

The economic slowdown unleashed by the pandemic has faded away to a significant extent, the finance minister said.  

"The economy is in strong shape now in almost all sectors such as public and private sector spending, investment, exports and remittance.

"Bangladesh has been top-ranked in GDP growth for the last decade. We are confident that we would be able to keep up the momentum in the future as well."

Despite the health sector and the pandemic management coming under pressure, the government's appropriate stimulus packages and social protection schemes have strengthened the economy and ensured basic services and supply of essentials for the poor, according to Kamal.

Some experts are saying that remittance income has gone up as migrant workers from various countries have returned after selling everything they had, Kamal said.

"But they have forgotten the bold decision taken by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on providing 2 per cent incentive and making remittance-sending easier."

Migrant workers are sending more money through banking channel than ever before and this has propelled the remittance to an upward trajectory much before the pandemic struck, the minister said.

"So, it would not be alright to think that the remittance flow would not sustain in the coming months."

Migrant workers sent $6.5 billion in the first three months of the current fiscal year, up 50 per cent year-on-year.