Our sudden and decentralised restart is hard to fathom

Bangladesh's restart is happening, whether science supports it or not.

Justification for the hurry is sought by referring to reopening in other countries, especially China, Germany, Spain, Italy, Denmark, India and several Arab states.

A quick web-search of what these countries have done suggests we may be missing the key lessons -- health system preparedness, gradualism, selectivity, hygiene and social distancing compliance -- from how they are reopening.

Wuhan -- the birth city of the pandemic -- reopened after 76 days of lockdown.

Residents with a government-assigned green Quick Response (QR) code on their mobile phones -- certifying they are safe -- are allowed to go back to work.

In residential communities where no new cases have been reported for 14 days, one person per household with a green QR code can leave the compound two hours per day.

On March 25, public buses started to resume service; three days later, underground trains began running. Businesses and shops have gradually reopened.

Germany acted early and aggressively to roll out comprehensive testing. A lot more people with no or mild symptoms got tested, helping to slow the spread.

The government coordinated all lockdown measures, straightforwardly communicated information to citizens and officials, consulted with experts and used data to guide decisions.

Spain lifted some of the restrictions, allowing businesses whose employees cannot work remotely to reopen.

Manufacturing, construction, and some service workers have been allowed to return subject to strict safety guidelines. Their rate of new infections has been falling.

Italy allowed a narrow range of firms to resume operations at the end of April. In Denmark, schools and daycare centres reopened on April 15. Other restrictions, including a ban on gatherings of more than 10 people, remain in place.

India's nationwide lockdown was one of its strictest.  It started reopening with manufacturing and farming in rural areas and neighbourhood convenience stores to provide relief for small, cash-strapped businesses. 

Small retail shops could reopen with half their staff, and with the expectation that people physically and socially distance wearing masks.

Quarantined towns and hotspots across the country remain locked.

Iran reopened mosques in areas consistently free of the coronavirus.

Jordan lifted all restrictions on economic activity, allowing businesses, industries, public transport to resume operation with safety guidelines. Universities and schools remain closed and a night curfew continues.

Malls in Abu Dhabi have reopened at 30 per cent capacity after installing thermal inspection devices. Shoppers are required to wear face masks and gloves at all times.

Saudi authorities have allowed wholesale and retail trade to resume for just two weeks (from April 29 to May 13).

Many business owners in Lebanon have not reopened because they thought they will be losing more money if they operate under restrictions in a faltering economy.

Authorities everywhere have reopened selectively after the infection cases started declining (except India) and with a no-nonsense caution that the threat of further infections is far from over.

Staying home is highly encouraged while physical distancing and hygienic practices complied. An adequate network of hospitals and primary health care facilities exist in all these countries.

In Bangladesh, the basic pre-conditions are missing.

Public health professionals say the official figures do not capture the virus spread reality on the ground. Testing rates remain low.

There are concerns about significant "false negatives".

The capacity to test, isolate and treat patients is restricted by fragile public health infrastructure and vastly inadequate personnel.

Enforcement of social distancing through official holidays, restriction on movements, local lockdowns and public advisories have not produced the desired results.

The number of infected cases is rising exponentially.

People find ways to follow their normal routines to engage in activities that provide daily sustenance and togetherness.

Individuals estimate they can go out, meet friends and enjoy the contained virus spread if everyone else is staying home, avoiding social contact.

The problem is when everyone makes the same estimate, all end up going out. Seeing all going out breaks the last straw for those still hanging in, completing the vicious circle.

Compliance with public health orders happens when people share a widespread belief that everyone is complying, as pointed out by the former World Bank Chief Economist Kaushik Basu a few years ago.

Bangladesh has, for all practical purpose, left it to the market to decide when and how to open, unlike any other country.

In fairness, the restriction on activities came under increasing strain as millions struggled to make ends meet.

Macro-level collective action problems can quickly surface when a public good is left upon the market to provide without effective central guidance and regulation. 

Chaotic return to an elusive normal is a natural outcome.

Garment factories started production, allegedly to avert loss of business to competitors such as Vietnam and China, flouting social distancing and hygiene.

Shop owners have the discretion to open for Eid sales. 

Informal sector small operators are naturally responding.

The millions rushing to Dhaka and other virus hotspots could emerge as new vectors of the pandemic. The workers are travelling between home and the workplace. Labour unrest for wage payments is adding fuel to fire.

According to a report by the Brac Institute of Governance and Development, the trade union leaders report a lack of awareness among workers and owners.

Workers are exposed to health risks in factories with inadequate occupational safety and health measures.

Their health risk is exacerbated by their often extremely crowded and unhygienic housing conditions.

Workers have been stigmatised by the people in their local communities as well as in their home districts.

Economics is supposedly driving the de-facto surrender of the most potent weapon, in the absence of vaccines and therapeutics, against the spread of the virus: social distancing.  Have business leaders done their calculus right?

The latest evidence casts doubt.

A Consumer Pulse Survey by the Centre for Enterprise and Society has just assessed consumer sentiments in the context of the pandemic, upcoming Eid, and beyond. 

They find consumers most concerned about personal and family safety, income and business. A large majority are unsure about the country's ability to recover from the economic shock. At least 84 per cent are cutting back spending.

Eid spending is likely to be deeply depressed, with restaurants and hotels hardest hit. 

Except for spending on pharmaceuticals and online learning, all other spending is likely to decrease, the least for groceries, beyond Eid.

Consumer confidence is ebbing. 

The fear of contracting the virus underpins the erosion of confidence.  This fear, in turn, is rooted in a lack of confidence in the health system. With COVID-19 cases doubling every 5 days, the country is experiencing steepening of the curve.

Nobody can predict the health and economic consequences of such a rapid and uncoordinated reopening of the economy.  Faith in herd immunity does not help much in alleviating this radical uncertainty.  

A lack of coordinated effort to mitigate the health and economic risks has deepened anxieties.

The 3.5 per cent of GDP stimulus package is inadequate when the economy requires at least 5-6 per cent to support families and firms.

Another at least half as much in extra spending is needed to equip those at the frontline of battling the pandemic.

Implementation of the announced package is at best ambling forward through the cobweb of bureaucratic red tape. Time is running out. 

We must not be oblivious to the risk of facing international isolation, de jure or de facto if we fail to keep up with global progress in containing the virus.

The current crisis has made clear how vulnerable people are to what happens on the other side of the planet.

The cliché that "we are all in this together" can easily turn into national public health interest-driven push to isolate the laggards. 

This may well be justified by the fact that safeguarding the welfare of their own is ultimately a contribution towards the welfare of those locked behind. 

The globe's interconnectivity in the 21st century has made virus mobility potentially much more devastating.

While serious flaws are apparent in marshalling international cooperation to fight the virus, it may not take much for global investors and buyers to withdraw from countries that remain branded as high transmission risk.

The International Labour Organisation has already raised flags, urging the concerned stakeholders to prevent and control the spread of the virus in workplaces in Bangladesh.

Making decisions based on science and evidence, not on populist or bureaucratic perceptions, is a no-brainer when facing a pandemic.

The first lesson learnt in this pandemic is that the weakest link in the chain, the failure to act and disclose in time as the virus spread in Wuhan, can bring down the whole edifice.

The international community may socially distance itself from countries failing to contain the virus. This could mean severe consequences for Bangladesh's economy for many years to come.

A new World Bank Research & Policy Brief, titled "An Opportunity to Build Legitimacy and Trust in Public Institutions in the Time of COVID-19", observes that as the first line of defence against a life-threatening disease, the governments have received a windfall of legitimacy.

This can be wasted if used to intensify divisive politics.

It could enable reform-minded leaders to change "a vicious cycle of high levels of corruption/low levels of trust to a virtuous one of high trust/low corruption".

This dynamic requires change, among others, in how well leaders in countries "communicate credible, nonideological and nonpartisan knowledge to their population".

The author is an economist