How a Biden presidency would transform the US energy landscape
Democrat Joe Biden has won the November US presidential election, according to several major networks. Here are some of the changes that could occur in US energy policy under his administration:
Biden has shown an interest in multilateral diplomacy similar to previous Democratic administrations. That could mean an eventual path for OPEC members Iran and Venezuela to get out from under Washington's sanctions and start pumping again, if the right conditions are met.
In Iran, that path could include a partnered approach between Washington and Europe, similar to a deal struck under Obama's administration.
In Venezuela, Biden appears likely to continue to favor sanctions to pressure the regime of President Nicolas Maduro, but could increase diplomatic efforts to end the impasse by negotiating a new election or power-sharing with the opposition.
Outgoing President Donald Trump's unilateral sanctions on the two countries have taken around 3 million barrels per day of crude oil off international markets, a little more than 3 per cent of world supply.
Biden's campaign has not detailed how it would approach these issues.
Biden lacks the chummy rapport that Trump had developed with Saudi Arabia's defacto leader Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. That country is the biggest voice in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, meaning Biden may not engage as closely on the group's production policy. He is also more likely to rely on quiet diplomatic channels for influencing OPEC than Trump's Twitter-centered approach.
Biden's campaign has not yet detailed how it would approach these issues, but any influence he would wield as president would likely be in service of the same goal - a moderate oil price. Any US president needs affordable fuel for consumers. And for Biden, the price would need to be high enough to make clean energy alternatives to fossil fuels competitive in support of his ambitious climate plan.
Trump had been more engaged with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries than most of his predecessors. He has sometimes influenced OPEC policy with his tweets and phone calls, arguing for an oil price low enough for consumers but high enough for drillers.
His sanctions also weakened the influence of OPEC hawks Venezuela and Iran within the group, removing two big historical hurdles to a pro-Washington OPEC policy. That concentrated power with leading producer Saudi Arabia, along with Russia, part of the group known as OPEC+.
A Biden administration would look to re-enter the Paris Climate Agreement, an international pact negotiated during the Obama administration to fight global warming that Trump pulled away from saying it could hurt the US economy.