Published on 12:00 AM, February 09, 2017

Bangladesh can become 28th largest economy by 2030: PwC

Bangladesh has the potential to become the world's 23rd largest economy by 2050, overtaking countries such as Netherlands, Australia, Spain, Thailand and Malaysia, according to PricewaterhouseCoopers.

PwC also predicted that Bangladesh would be the 28th largest economy by 2030, up from 31st in 2016.

But this lift will depend largely on how the country moves to create jobs for the growing young people, said the report -- 'The Long View: how will the global economic order change by 2050?'

The report ranked 32 countries that altogether account for about 85 percent of the world's GDP measured on a purchasing power parity basis.

PPP is a method of currency valuation based on the premise that two identical goods in different countries should eventually cost the same.

On a PPP basis, Bangladesh's GDP would stand at $3,064 billion in 2050, up from just $628 billion in 2016.

The report also projects that the world economy would more than double in size by 2050, far outstripping population growth.

Vietnam, India and Bangladesh have the potential to be the fastest growing economies between 2016 and 2050 -- with an average annual growth of about 5 percent -- thanks to their youthful and fast-growing working age population,.

But for that to happen there needs to be stronger macroeconomic fundamentals and institutions and mass education to ensure the rapidly growing working populations contribute productively to long-term economic growth.

By 2050, PwC projects China will be the largest economy in the world by a significant margin, while India could edge past the US to second position. Indonesia can rise to fourth spot.

The European Union's share of global GDP could have fallen to below 10 percent.

Pakistan, Nigeria and Vietnam are tipped to be the largest movers over the next 35 years. Nigeria, which currently ranks 22nd, could move up to 14th, though this is dependent on diversifying its economy and addressing weaknesses in institutions and infrastructure.

Vietnam could move from 32nd to 20th, and Pakistan could move from 24th to 16th.

The other strong emerging market performer can be the Philippines, which has the potential to move up 9 places to No. 19 by 2050.

As China's population ages and real labour costs increase, global multinationals are likely to shift some of their off-shoring jobs to other relatively cheaper economies like Vietnam, Bangladesh and Indonesia, the PwC report said.

In conjunction with the rising labour costs and continued real income growth, domestic demand will push up prices, meaning Chinese exporters' competitive advantage over their Western counterparts may weaken.

But at the same time, as its economy rebalances and matures, China will become more attractive as a domestic market for Western companies to sell into and do business in.