Experts fear conflicts in the region
Scrapping of Jammu and Kashmir’s autonomy by the BJP-led government may fuel conflicts in India and beyond, international relations and security experts have observed.
Indian-administered Kashmir witnessed for long separatist insurgency leading to thousands of deaths over the last three decades. India accuses Pakistan of supporting insurgents -- an accusation Pakistan denies, claiming it only gives moral and diplomatic support to Kashmiris demanding self-determination.
Many of the Kashmiris believe they were not given full autonomy as enshrined in the Indian constitution. Some of them fought to join Pakistan and some wanted independence of Kashmir, experts said.
Now, as part of an electoral pledge, the BJP government revoked the special status of Kashmir, aimed at fully integrating its only Muslim-majority region with the rest of the country.
The decision means cancellation of a bar on property purchases by people from outside Jammu and Kashmir. It also means state government jobs and some college places will no longer be reserved for state residents.
BBC has reported that Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan has vowed to fight India’s decision to revoke Indian-administered Kashmir’s autonomy, including at the UN Security Council.
“I am afraid that [India] will now carry out ethnic cleansing in Kashmir,” Khan told Pakistan parliament on Tuesday, adding that the removal of the special status would allow India to change the demographic make-up of the Muslim-majority state.
China termed India’s decision unacceptable. Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said India continued to hurt Chinese sovereignty by unilaterally changing domestic law, and that India’s claim over Ladakh, as part of Kashmir, involved Chinese land.
Experts say India has so far failed to win over the Kashmiris and address their concerns. Now, revoking the state’s autonomy without any consultation with Kashmiri lawmakers, arrest of its leaders and a new clampdown by suspending telephone and internet services have aggravated the situation.
“The question at this stage is whether the latest measure by India will help establish peace and stability in Kashmir. I don’t think so,” said Prof Imtiaz Ahmed of international relations at Dhaka University.
The way of revoking autonomy of Jammu and Kashmir was undemocratic as the lawmakers of the state were not consulted and there was no referendum, he said.
“Things might have been different if there was a referendum” Imtiaz Ahmed told The Daily Star on Wednesday.
Many Indians, including politicians, are also opposing the Indian decision on Kashmir considering that the Indian culture of unity in diversity is no more there, he said.
Munshi Faiz Ahmad, chairman of Bangladesh Institute of International and Strategic Studies, said the distance between Delhi and Kashmiris that has been there for long is now further widening -- something that may create instability within India as well as in the Indian sub-continent.
“Thousands more troops have been deployed. If repression against the Kashmiris goes on, it might flare up new conflicts,” Faiz Ahmad told The Daily Star.
The conflict, if escalated, may spread beyond India. The Muslim sympathisers in the sub-continent may resort to violence, he added.
Former ambassador Munshi Faiz said it was important to observe how the BJP government, which has large support of the Hindus, handles the situation in Kashmir.
Security analyst Brig Gen (retd) Shakhawat Hossain said though India claimed Kashmir to be an internal issue, it actually was not.
Pakistan fought three wars against India over Kashmir. China too fought a war in 1962 against India over border conflict in the Himalayan region.
He termed dangerous the Indian Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s comment on Tuesday in the Lok Sabha that Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and Aksai Chin were parts of the state and were integral parts of India.
He also said the government leaders were ready to sacrifice their lives for the state.
“There is no other region in the world where three neighbours have nuclear power. If the conflict escalates, none in the region would be spared,” he warned.
With the BJP in power for two consecutive terms, there is a trend of rising Hindu nationalism in India -- a situation that may encourage militant elements among the Muslims, Shakhawat Hossain said.
It’s no wonder if the militants having international links become active on the Kashmir issue, he added.
“BJP government must keep the aspects in mind,” the security expert said.
All three experts opined that Kashmir issue would not have any impact on the diplomatic relations between Bangladesh and India.