Islamic party aims to hold the key in Malaysia's polls

The outcome of next month's election in Malaysia may hinge on the performance of a party that has strived for decades to turn the country into an Islamic state and enforce harsher penalties on Muslims for adultery, theft and drinking alcohol.

Parti Islam se-Malaysia (PAS) is hopeful that it can win 40 of parliament's 222 seats, enough to place it in the position of kingmaker. With the balance of power, it would be able to make policy demands as its price for supporting either Prime Minister Najib Razak, or the opposition alliance trying to oust him.

Even if PAS falls short of its ambitions, it is still likely to play a decisive role by dividing the opposition vote, handing a massive advantage to Najib's Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition.

If PAS does hold sway over the next government, some political analysts say it could stoke divisions in multi-ethnic, Muslim-majority Malaysia. The government could come under pressure to further entrench affirmative-action policies that favour ethnic Malays in business, education and housing, and to strengthen Islamic courts, they say.

Muslims, the majority of whom are ethnic Malays, make up about 60 percent of Malaysia's population of 32 million. Ethnic Chinese and Indians, who are Buddhist, Christian or Hindu, account for most of the rest.

PAS President Abdul Hadi Awang says if he holds the balance of power after the election, he will insist the government makes Islam central to its policies.

"We want to introduce Islam as a political, economic and social agenda," Hadi told Reuters at the PAS headquarters in Kuala Lumpur, saying he was confident of winning 40 seats and "possibly even more".

However, few outside PAS believe the party will emerge from the May 9 election with the clout it is counting on, even if the Islamic conservatism it espouses has become more widely followed in Malaysia since the 2013 election, when it won 21 seats.

One reason for the bleak outlook is a split in PAS in 2015 that led to the creation of a breakaway group, Amanah, a more progressive Islamic grouping that is likely to siphon votes away from the parent party.

There are few reliable opinion polls in Malaysia but two political consultancies told Reuters they see PAS winning no more than 10 seats.

Most analysts tip Najib to win despite a corruption scandal that has dogged him since 2015, resentment over higher living costs and a challenge from former leader Mahathir Mohamad, a 92-year-old who commands respect among many Malaysians and heads the main opposition alliance.