AL's BJP strategy

WE Bangladeshis are perhaps still grappling with the domestic political happenings with regards to the last general election and the political equation in light of the opposition's participation in the upazila elections. In the meantime, there are significant ongoing political developments in our big neighbour with potentially profound ramifications in our relations with them and in the geopolitical balance of the region and trans-region as a whole. Certain factors have made things a bit complicated. With the 16th Lok Sabha election in April-May, the Indian electorate seems to have caught namo namo fever (abbreviation of Narendra Modi's name and praise for a deity who metaphorically is Narendra Modi himself in the context of the election).
BJP-led NDA government isn't new in India. Both the AL and the BNP governments had to deal with them when they were in power for 7 years at the turn of the previous century. The difference is that BJP, a right wing Hindu nationalist party, was led by moderate Atal Bihari Vajpayee at that time. Now a somewhat controversial figure, Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi, is at the helm of the party and the projected prime ministerial candidate.
Although the BJP demonstrated considerable flexibility in the reality of complex Indian domestic politics and wasn't too adventurous in terms of foreign relations in South Asia and beyond, this time around its geo-strategic and regional vision isn't quite clear yet. Narendra Modi is talking tough when it comes to neighbours in the subcontinent or the giant neighbour across the Himalayas. Electoral success for NDA, as per the opinion polls, may not be decisive in their favour, but it's likely that positive post-election momentum will bring a few regional parties into their fold and help them reach the magic numbers in the Lok Sabha.
It wasn't too difficult for successive Bangladeshi governments to deal with a BJP led-NDA government because they (NDA) didn't really bother Bangladesh with new issues, nor did they offer anything worthwhile. It would be interesting to watch how the AL government of Bangladesh and probable NDA government in India handle relations.  Even if we consider that the new NDA government may not be experimental with India's security interest in Bangladesh, the prize of having Mamata Banerjee with her probable thirty something MPs could be too lucrative to defy for the number-hungry BJP in the post-election scenario in India.
Mamata's inclusion in NDA, or even her direct or indirect support from outside, which could be crucial for NDA to form the next government in Delhi and survive thereafter, won't come without a package of concessions from the BJP. In that case, temperamental Mamata may make it impossible for NDA to give Bangladesh anything that may go against the interest of West Bengal. Again, the BJP may think that an anti-Bangladeshi stance on alleged migration, etc., could earn it an electoral base in West Bengal and north-east where it does not have much of a political base. It did try this in the past.
The situation could also be tricky for the AL government. It is staunchly asserting its secular credentials these days but may find itself in a position where one of its key regional secular allies, the Congress led UPA government in India, is replaced by Hindu nationalist BJP-led NDA. It remains to be seen how it will deal with a right wing Hindu leader like Narendra Modi at the helm. Although Modi has consistently been projected by the BJP as a developmental icon rather than a divisive figure these days, the past stigma may not yet have gone in the eyes of many.
If the probable NDA government reaches out to Bangladesh with substantial assurance, balancing its internal limitations, the AL government would be less worried. But a relatively unfriendly NDA government would really worry Bangladesh. With the existing icy relation with Pakistan, Bangladesh has already lost some countervailing geo-strategic leverage. EU, China and the US are the other powers that can influence things in South Asia. The EU and the Americans aren't really too happy with the AL government, yet their help is impossible to rule out. Here, the AL government has some mending to do. China was worried about the way the AL government handled politics recently, but expressed readiness to work with the new government after the election. The AL, mindful of throwing away Pakistan leverage, ought to be careful about relations with China despite a troubled past in the early 1970s. China also seems to be interested to forget that phase forever.
It would be premature to presume a detailed NDA policy towards Bangladesh at this point of time. Yet, the probabilities can be visualised now, and fore-thinking and preparedness without any anticipatory reaction may not be a futile exercise on Bangladesh's part.
 

The writer is an Associate Research Fellow in Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS).
Email- sarwar558@gmail.com