Published on 12:00 AM, September 10, 2014

Al-Qaeda's battle to survive

Al-Qaeda's battle to survive

Al-Qaeda's launch of a new branch in its heartland of South Asia masks the "desperation" of the world's former terror bogeyman as it finds itself eclipsed by the savagery and slickness of the Islamic State, analysts say.

Operational setbacks such as the killing of Osama bin Laden have contributed to its decline as fighters have drifted to the potent new banner of the IS in the Middle East.

Al-Qaeda was founded in the late 1980s by bin Laden during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan and is inextricably linked to the South Asian region, but now estimates put the number of its fighters in Pakistan's tribal areas in the low thousands. IS grew from al-Qaeda's Iraq offshoot but the parent network formally cut ties in February this year.

With its territorial gains and social media propaganda operation, IS has charged up on al-Qaeda like a nimble start-up company challenging a staid old multinational.

According to Amir Rana, a leading militancy expert in Pakistan, al-Qaeda's need to rebrand stems from a desire to head off the competition.

"This shows their desperation -- they are losing control of their affiliates in this region and in other parts of the world," he said.

Amid a country-wide alert in India over an al-Qaeda threat, a top US counter-terrorism expert has said there is no evidence of the terror outfit's presence in the country.

"The idea that Ayman al-Zawahiri is going to open a branch of al-Qaeda in India is just crazy. Yes, there are some jihadi elements in India, but there's no evidence that al-Qaeda has a presence in the country," Peter Bergen, known for his insight into operations of al-Qaeda in South Asia, told CNN's Fareed Zakaria in an interview on Saturday.

"It's an attempt by Zawahiri to have people like us discuss him, because he's been out of the limelight for so long, it's all been about ISIS in Iraq and Syria and al-Qaeda is very conscious that they're yesterday's story," he said.

Appearing on the same programme, Husain Haqqani, the former Pak ambassador to US, said, "I think that Zawahiri's attempt to talk about India is essentially to try and get the hard line elements among Pakistani jihadis and even within the Pakistani intelligence service to think about al-Qaeda as a potential ally. That's his play."

While al-Qaeda and IS appear to be at odds, Rana said that ultimately the outcome could be a rejuvenated global Islamist struggle -- likening the move to a corporate restructuring.

"When militant groups transform, they get new recruits and bring in new affiliates -- it helps create momentum with their organisation. Broadening their ideological perspective gives a new birth, a new life to terror movements."