It's game of maths now

Russia 2018 FIFA World Cup From Jun 14 to Jul 15, 2018 The 2018

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Russia says it will take extraordinary measures to combat any terrorist threat when it hosts the World Cup next year, as its military campaign in Syria makes the country a prime target for jihadists.

A bombing on the metro in Saint Petersburg in April that left 15 people dead was among the recent high-profile terror attacks on Russian soil.

The fear of more attacks was heightened after seven people were stabbed in Siberia in August in an attack claimed by the Islamic State (IS) group, while the authorities have reported breaking up several jihadist cells across the country.

"There is a very real threat of an attack in Russia" during the World Cup, which runs from June 14 and July 15 2018, said Alexander Golts, an independent Russia expert specialising in security.

Russia has experienced a number terror attacks over the last 20 years and during two wars in Chechnya, but the threat has increased since Moscow's military intervention in Syria in September 2015 to support President Bashar al-Assad's regime, making it a priority IS target.

"The authorities say they have succeeded in destroying IS. But several thousand Russians have been taking part in (jihadist) conflicts and now they are beginning to return to Russia," Golts told AFP.

According to the Federal Security Service (FSB), about 2,900 Russian jihadists, most of them from the Muslim-majority Caucasus republics, have fought in Syria. Between 2,000 and 4,000 more fighters from Central Asia now live in Russia.

The world's most high profile sporting event, along with the Olympic Games, makes an ideal terrorist target.

- Threats against players -

Every day, dozens of calls to commit attacks during the tournament from IS propaganda organs are published via social networks. Many of these involve threats against players.

But Pascal Boniface, director of the Institute of International and Strategic Relations in Paris, said these threats are put out "to attract attention".

There is a risk of terror at "any global sporting event which attracts cameras and those with a desire to make an impact".

Several months before the Winter Olympics in the Black Sea resort of Sochi in 2014, bomb attacks killed 34 people in Volgograd, also in southern Russia, and "we were very worried about attacks" during the event, Boniface said.

FSB director Alexander Bortnikov revealed last month that a number of planned attacks had been thwarted ahead of the World Cup warm-up event the Confederations Cup in June.

- Human rights concerns -

In 2016 Russia set up an international "working group" charged with overseeing safety at the World Cup and bringing together the security services of 32 countries, despite diplomatic tensions between Moscow and the West, Bortnikov said.

"Every country is sending delegations and the common cause of the fight against terrorists goes beyond any disagreement they might have," Boniface added.

Saint Petersburg police last week began deploying dogs trained to sniff out explosives on the underground network, while a list of sensitive areas which will be kept under particularly close watch -- including luxury hotels, training grounds and tourist areas of host cities -- was published.

Although the authorities remain tight lipped on the details of the World Cup security plan, deputy prime minister Vitaly Mutko has announced that at least 30 billion rubles (445 million euros, $512 million) will be spent by Russia in this area.

A decree concerning "strengthened security measures during the Confederations Cup and the World Cup" signed by President Vladimir Putin came into force this June and will be applied again from May 25 to July 25 next year.

The decree includes measures limiting the right to protest and curbing driving in the tournament's 11 host cities, as well as introducing no-fly zones and forbidding entering these cities by bus without a special permit.

Human Rights Watch said it was "impossible not to be concerned" by aspects of the increased safety measures.

"We have already seen the consequences of the presidential decree," its Russia researcher Yulia Gorbunova told AFP, pointing to the 33 people arbitrarily detained during the Confederations Cup.

"There are reasons to believe that during the World Cup (these restrictions) will be all the more severe," she said.

Lady Luck plays a small but significant role in a World Cup that runs over a month.

Performance is of course the most important factor that brings the trophy. But then again, there are small things that at times draw the thin line between winners and losers on some days. The god of small things is Lady Luck, which may swing this way or the other in any of the seven matches, on any of the seven days that a team turns up to lift the coveted cup.

The best of teams may not win a World Cup if they are not a little bit lucky from tournament's first fixture to the final.

A deflected goal. Ball hitting the post and staying out. A player's slip-up at a crucial moment. A key player sidelined for unnecessary bookings. A misdirected spot kick from the unlikeliest footballer. A wrong pass to the opponent inside the box. A player not in the right place at the right time.

This World Cup in Russia has been witness to all these small things in one match or the other. At least one or two of the favourites -- Germany, Brazil, Argentina, Spain or Portugal -- that went home early would have played in the final had they been a little lucky.

Remember the curling free-kick of Messi that barely touched the fingers of the France goalkeeper to stay out, the deflected own goal of Brazil's Fernandinho, the injury of Edinson Cavani in Uruguay's match against France or the perfect dummy of Romelu Lukaku in the last minute that edged Japan out.

However, it's not because of luck alone that France and Croatia moved to the final out of the 32 teams in the tournament. Both teams are gifted with depth and talent. Rival coaches have also showed good tactics as well.

If France and Croatia fail to write their fate, the god of small things will for sure.

The writer is former sports editor of The Daily Star

Sam Allardyce vowed to defer to captain Wayne Rooney over his positioning after starting life as England manager with a last-gasp 1-0 win over Slovakia in World Cup qualifying.

Adam Lallana snatched a 95th-minute winner against 10-man Slovakia in Trnava on Sunday to prevent Allardyce from becoming the first England manager since Bobby Robson in 1982 not to win his first game.

Rooney, making a record 116th appearance for an England outfield player, adopted a deep-lying midfield role for much of the game despite Allardyce having said he would play in a number 10 position.

But Allardyce said: "This is the most decorated outfield player in England. He's won everything at Man United, more or less, and at Champions League and domestic level.

"He holds a lot more experience at international football than me as an international manager.

"So using his experience with a team, and playing as a team member, it's not for me to say where he's going to play.

"It's up to me to (ask): 'Are you playing well in that position? And if you are playing well and contributing, that's great.'

"Yes, I'd like him to get forward a bit more. He's been a goalscorer all his life and I want him still to score goals, but he reads a game as he reads it.

"I must admit, he did play a little deeper than I thought he'd play. But I was pleased with his performance."

Rooney, 30, started the game in midfield alongside Jordan Henderson in a 4-1-4-1 system.