Trump threatens to challenge election results if he loses
The American Federal Election Commission (FEC) has already started the Presidential Election process, which will culminate on November 8, 2016. The President is elected indirectly by the Electoral College of 538 electors. The candidate getting a simple majority of 270 votes will be declared the winner of the White House. Early voting has already begun in 37 states to elect the Electoral College. However, these votes can be counted only on November 8.
Going by the opinion polls, after the third Presidential debate on October 20, it appears that Donald Trump's fate is sealed. Towards the end of the debate when moderator Chris Wallace asked whether he will accept the election results, Trump without blinking said "I will look at it at the time. I will keep you in suspense. Okay". Hillary Clinton responded saying, "That's horrifying. I am appalled that someone who is nominee of one of our two major parties would take that position". Later the same day after the debate Trump raised questions about the election process saying, "I will totally accept the results …. if I win ........ I would reserve my right to … file a legal challenge, in the case of a questionable result".
Trump's refusal to accept the results and his threat that he may file a legal challenge has created a furore in political and legal circle in the US and elsewhere. Legal experts on US Constitution have come up with several hypothetical scenarios.
Assuming Hillary Clinton wins -- Americans would expect Trump to publicly concede and congratulate Clinton. That has been the tradition in American Presidential elections. But, is it necessary that Trump has to concede? The answer is – NO, according to legal experts. Conceding publicly means it ensures peaceful transfer of power to the new President and helps in smoothing the divisions that bitterly separated the two camps but there is no constitutional requirement that mandates this concession.
The Electoral College will meet on December 19 and the votes will be tallied on January 6 in a Joint Session of the US Congress, which is presided over by the President of the Senate. Trump may wait till then to say that he concedes.
Theoretically, if Clinton wins and Trump refuses to concede it may lead to an unsavoury situation. For months, Trump has been saying that the election system is rigged against him. However, even if rigged he would accept the results, if he wins. That is hypocrisy. Americans themselves on a reliable open election mechanism. Yet Trump can bring rigging charges and demand recounts in some battleground States. Has he not already hinted that 1.8 million dead people were voting for his opponent?
Charges of election fraud will be dealt with by the State Courts and probably go to the Federal Supreme Court. This is what probably Trump has in mind. There are also serious fears that Trump may incite his hardcore supporters to get out onto the streets and resort to violence.
The Federal Supreme Court, the final interpreter of the Constitution, currently has eight Judges, not nine as it is supposed to have. It is evenly split between Democrats and Republicans. In March 2016 President Obama nominated Merrick Garland to complete the 9-member bench of the Court. Republican Party, which controls the Senate, refused to hold a confirmation hearing for Garland, arguing that an outgoing President cannot nominate new judges for the Supreme Court.
The other twist in the story is that the eight judges can split 4-4, which means that the judgement from the lower court may be upheld. However, Trump cannot file just one case challenging the results. He must file multiple cases in various state courts disputing specific state results which, may, then be litigated at the Federal level. This would be a hugely messy and unprecedented situation. But Trump possibly may think he has another trick up his sleeve. He can demand liberal Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg to recuse because she made uncharitable remarks about him although this is very unlikely.
The other scenario is what happens if neither candidate gets 270 EC votes? According to the Constitution in such a case the House of Representatives will elect the President from the three Presidential candidates who received the most EC votes. The House does not vote as a full chamber of 435 members. Every state has only one vote. Thus, South Dakota with only one member in the House will have the same number of votes as California with 53 Representatives. The Senate will elect the Vice President from the two Vice President nominees with the most EC votes. As the Republicans control both houses they may go for Trump.
This election will elect a new House of Representative of 435 members and 34 Senators (out of 100). Governors of 12 states plus two more from the US territories will also be chosen through this election. United States currently has a population of 325 million, out of which only 146 million were registered to vote in 2012, though 218 million were eligible to vote. Only 57.5 percent cast their vote in 2012.
Badly split in the middle the GOP is faced with double stakes – losing the Presidency and forfeiting majority in both the Senate and House. They currently control the Senate with 54 seats and 247 seats in the House. It will be an absolute disaster for the Republicans if they lose majority in both houses and the presidency, because of Trump's indecent campaign. Donald Trump has seriously damaged the Republican Party.
If the opinion polls are correct then Hillary Clinton, the first woman in American history, will be the 45th President of the United States of America. To secure this victory Democratic voters in the battleground States must get out in large numbers and vote, as they did for Barack Obama in 2012. On November 8, Donald Trump should concede with dignity and go home.
Comments