Foreign relation experts say they are not optimistic about the deal signed between Bangladesh and Myanmar on return of the Rohingyas, as the bilateral instrument did not set any timeframe on completing the repatriation and failed to mention the role of the UN in the process.

Referring to the previous experiences of dealing with Myanmar in regard to Rohingya repatriation, they said Myanmar has always used its tactics of dragging and going ahead with its own agenda, despite efforts from Bangladesh.

"Bangladesh may have fallen into the trap of Myanmar's tactic by signing the deal," said Prof CR Abrar, who teaches international relations at Dhaka University.

Myanmar's early signing of the deal is meant to defuse the international pressure mounted on it stemming from atrocities committed by Myanmar's security forces which forced over 620,000 Rohingyas to flee to Bangladesh since August 25.

UN and US have both termed the actions “ethnic cleansing”, while rights bodies defined them “crimes against humanity” and “genocide.”

UN also adopted a resolution urging Myanmar to grant citizenship to the Rohingyas, accept their return and stop atrocities in Rakhine. Rohingyas have been denied citizenship and other basic services though they have been living in Myanmar for generations. 

"It is very likely that Myanmar would arbitrarily decide on determining who is to be repatriated and who is not if UN is not involved," said Abrar, also executive director at the Refugee and Migratory Movements Research Unit (RMMRU).

Myanmar will take back a token number of refugees as happened before, he said.

Around 2.5 lakh Rohingya fled persecution in Myanmar in 1978. Almost all of them were sent back through mutual understanding but in another wave in 1991-92, some 2.5 lakh Rohingyas re-entered Bangladesh.

Between 1992 and 2005, a total of 2.36 lakh Rohingyas were repatriated under an open-ended 1992 Myanmar-Bangladesh bilateral agreement. Since 2005, not a single Rohingya has been repatriated despite numerous efforts by Bangladesh.

Meanwhile, 3 lakh additional Rohingyas entered Bangladesh at different times, especially in 2012 and 2016. With the new arrivals, nearly 9 lakh Rohingyas are now living in Bangladesh, putting the country under tremendous pressure.

CR Abrar said if Myanmar had been sincere in taking back the Rohingyas, they should have prepared detailed terms of reference by this time.

Humayun Kabir, former ambassador to the United States, said, "When the deal is open-ended, we become concerned over the fate of repatriation, because our experience in the past is not a happy one."

Moreover, the evidence present in Rakhine on persecution of the Rohingyas is even more concerning as Myanmar authorities have not been able to restore the law and order in the Rakhine State, he said.

Humayun Kabir said no mention of UN involvement in the repatriation process is totally unexpected.

He said the most important thing for repatriation of the Rohingyas is creating a favourable environment in Rakhine, but such effort is yet to be seen.

On verification of the Rohingyas, he said it is clear how they have fled to Bangladesh, and the Myanmar authorities have already acknowledged it. Bangladesh government also biometrically registered them all, and that should be one of the basis of repatriation, Humayun Kabir said.

Dr Imtiaz Ahmed, professor of international relations at Dhaka University, said the major issue in repatriation is whether the Rohingyas are issued citizenship. If that guarantee is not there, repatriation would be a difficult job, he added.

"I don't know the details of the arrangement signed, but Bangladesh must have addressed the citizenship issue," Imtiaz said.

He thinks the bilateral deal between Bangladesh and Myanmar does not mean that international pressure has stopped. After the UN, the US has also termed the violence in Rakhine as ethnic cleansing.

Therefore, Prof Imtiaz said, the issue has to be dealt with legally on an international level.