We are deeply concerned by how our economy, which has already been facing myriad difficulties for one and a half years, stands to suffer more due to the ongoing political unrest. According to our latest report on the situation, the political turmoil that the country is embroiled in has already started to affect day-to-day economic activities. Added to that is the raging inflation, which the government is yet to bring under control despite its many assurances. Experts fear that if things continue as they are, our economic crisis may deepen further.

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Could BNP have avoided violence on Oct 28?

During the ongoing series of blockades, we have seen several incidents of arson attacks wherein buses were set on fire. Because o Transportation of consumer goods as well as industrial raw materials have drastically reduced, disrupting domestic supply chains. A wholesale vegetable seller in Dhaka, for example, said he could not hire trucks to transport produce from farmers in Panchagarh, even by offering nearly double the amount of the usual fare. As a result, those farmers are forced to sell off their perishable products at reduced prices to avoid loss. Meanwhile, a supply shortage has been created in the capital, which means retail prices of vegetables are bound to shoot up—especially if unscrupulous traders take the opportunity to make quick profits.

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Violence cannot be the only language of politics

Similarly, if raw materials are not transported to factories on time, production will suffer and export-oriented businesses will face the risk of missing deadlines. This heightens the chances of losing work orders to our competitors—and by extension losing avenues to earn foreign exchange, which we desperately need right now.

Have our political parties, who are refusing to budge from their stance of no compromise, taken note of this potential crisis we are facing? In October 2023, the inflation rate rose to 9.93 percent—a five-month high—and it is unlikely to improve before the election. This means if the current state of affairs persists, our lives are about to get even more difficult.

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Are we doomed to repeat past mistakes?

If our political parties are truly dedicated to the people's welfare—as they routinely claim to be—they must recognise how their political actions are affecting the economy, and by extension the ordinary people. While some level of political turmoil is usually expected in an election year, our economy is not in a usual state this time. We urge our political parties to pause and reflect on the crisis in hand, and act accordingly. At the same time, the government must initiate the process to reach a political consensus through an effective dialogue, realising that it won't be wise to subject our economy to further shocks.

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US Assistant Secretary of State Donald Lu's letter, calling on Bangladesh's three main political parties to have a dialogue, is not as simple as it sounds. It demands our attention for two reasons: the timing of the letter and the possibility of the request coming to fruition.

As for the timing, the letter was issued after a meeting of foreign and defence ministers of the US and India in New Delhi. In the meeting, India raised the issue of Bangladesh's election and conveyed its position "clearly." According to media reports, the US has not responded. Usually, in bilateral diplomatic meetings, many issues are discussed between the two sides. The issues on which the parties agree are made public through a readout or a joint statement, while both sides remain silent on unresolved issues. This is the usual, unwritten diplomatic practice; one can term this a diplomatic norm.

However, after the New Delhi meeting, Indian Foreign Secretary Vinay Kwatra told reporters that the issue was discussed in detail and India had conveyed its position. The absence of Bangladesh in the published readout means that there has not been an agreement—or in other words, the US did not agree with the Indian position. This raises the question of what the United States would do, considering that it has been insisting on an inclusive election and has adopted various measures to "lend… support to all those seeking to advance democracy in Bangladesh." The timing of Donald Lu's letter conveys the message that the US has remained active in pursuing its policy. As such, one can wonder: is this a message for India, too? Is there a connection between India's clarification of its policy and Lu's letter?

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Crackdown, groupthink, and the dialogue that didn’t happen

Let's look at the content of the letter. It urges, as US Ambassador to Bangladesh Peter Haas said a few days ago, to hold unconditional dialogue and find a solution to the impasse. Somehow, the letter was sent to BNP, and BNP has acknowledged its receipt. I say "somehow" because, evidently, it was not delivered to the party's central office. It may be recalled that a letter sent by the Election Commission to BNP, inviting the party to a dialogue, was left at the door of the BNP office as it was locked and under complete control of law enforcement agencies. Although BNP has always said that it is ready to hold talks, it has also said that the talks will only take place after the Sheikh Hasina government resigns. This is viewed as a condition, but it can also be called the agenda of a dialogue.

As a new situation has emerged, hypothetically speaking, if BNP wants to hold talks unconditionally, then the decision to do so will have to be made by its top leaders through discussions among themselves and by securing the nod of the acting chair of the party. As we are aware, those who can make such decisions—that is, top-ranking BNP leaders, including the secretary general of the party, Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir—have remained arrested since October 28 on various charges, some of which are outrageous and fictitious at best. They have been denied bail and are languishing in jail. Who then will make this decision? Who will represent BNP?

Donald Lu is not the first person to suggest that the way out is a dialogue. However, with the weight of the US behind the letter, it should give pause to the ruling party and the government. AL needs to prove that the rhetoric has substance. Otherwise, it will strengthen the argument that AL is not willing to have a fair election.

If the ruling party says it is ready to talk, as Foreign Minister AK Abdul Momen indicated on Tuesday, the question is—to borrow his words—"with whom?" This question arises not because there is nobody to be represented, but because the government has arrested these leaders and clamped down on all opposition activists. If the government is true to its word, or at least tries to be seen as interested, the first thing it has to do is to release the detained BNP leaders immediately and to end the detentions and persecution that are taking place across the country. Donald Lu's letter puts this responsibility on the government, fairly and squarely. It is not enough for the Awami League to say "we want dialogue," or "if there is necessity for dialogue to keep the democratic journey uninterrupted, we will do that." These are empty talks, vocal callisthenics of some kind. The ruling party knows, as does the entire country, that Donald Lu is not the first person to suggest that the way out is a dialogue. However, with the weight of the US behind the letter, it should give pause to the ruling party and the government. AL needs to prove that the rhetoric has substance. Otherwise, it will strengthen the argument that AL is not willing to have a fair election.

The behaviour of the ruling party in recent months—especially the desperate moves to split BNP, flip disgruntled BNP leaders, pressure local and national leaders using state apparatuses to join the election, and create several King's parties—indicates that AL is more inclined to have an engineered show than an election, as it did in 2014 and 2018. The clampdown, the belligerent rhetoric, the aggressive posture of the party leaders along with the dispensation of largesse to those who would conduct the election show that the AL is far from agreeable to a solution. This is what "undermining the democratic election process" looks like. The reminder of the US visa policy (commonly referred to as 3Cs) in Donald Lu's letter should not simply be ignored.

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Dialogue must be on equal footing

The United States insists on "unconditional dialogue." Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, as a response to Ambassador Haas' suggestion, has already offered a condition: she will sit with the opposition only if President Joe Biden sits with Donald Trump; otherwise, she won't negotiate. Supporters of the ruling party would say that BNP has already put forward a condition that they will not sit for talks without the resignation of the prime minister. Putting aside these conditions—which Lu's letter decided to ignore—there are no objections to the suggestion that a dialogue needs to have an agenda. In fact, no dialogue can be held without a clear agenda.

Bangladesh's history is replete with instances of such dialogues ending with no results. What can be the agenda in the current situation? Since the current system does not allow for an inclusive, acceptable election, and as a level playing field is not only absent but deliberately being tilted over the years through constitutional and extra-constitutional measures, the agenda of any dialogue must be to find out what new arrangements can be made so that everyone can participate. This means the participation of not only political parties, but of the key stakeholders: the voters. How a guaranteed mechanism can be created for this end should be the agenda. Is the ruling party willing to go for a dialogue to address this? In large measure, their behaviour will determine what kind of role the United States will play in the future.

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The fog before the election

While all these are up in the air, and uncertainty looms, the Election Commission has announced that the 12th parliamentary election will be held on January 7, 2024. Their moves seem to be consistent with the wishes of the government. When opposition parties are facing severe persecution, the election commissioners seem to be living in a make-believe world. The statement of the EC secretary that "the country's environment is favourable for announcing the schedule for the 12th parliamentary election" is testimony to their obliviousness to reality. The comment that the letter won't affect the election schedule is mind-boggling. Perhaps the EC should try to understand the essence of the letter as much as heed the calls of political parties that an agreement has to be reached before declaring the election schedule. Perhaps, the letter has a message for the EC, too.

Having learnt of the content of Donald Lu's letter, we must ask the US administration: if the parties flout the suggestion and the government does not take the initiative, what measures is the US willing to take to extend "support to all those seeking to advance democracy in Bangladesh"? The US measures—for example, the sanctions on Rab and its officers in December 2021 and the visa policy in May 2023—have impacted but evidently have not deterred the government from a full-scale clampdown, as it heads on full steam to hold an election without any consensus on who would be in charge of it. The US' visa policy has been "potentially punitive," but hoping that these actions from the US will be enough to steer the ruling party towards an inclusive election does not seem too realistic. Neither the visa policy nor the call to hold a dialogue will ensure a free election—which is the first step to saving the country from turning into a one-party state. Expectedly, the US policymakers have thought about this, and perhaps there are other tools in their kit. Which ones are to be used, if any, is a question that Bangladeshis and observers of Bangladeshi politics are pondering.

Ali Riaz is distinguished professor of political science at Illinois State University in the US, non-resident senior fellow of the Atlantic Council, and president of the American Institute of Bangladesh Studies (AIBS). His forthcoming book is titled Pathways of autocratization: The tumultuous journey of Bangladeshi politics.

Views expressed in this article are the author's own.

Follow The Daily Star Opinion on Facebook for the latest opinions, commentaries and analyses by experts and professionals. To contribute your article or letter to The Daily Star Opinion, see our guidelines for submission.

The United States has reiterated what we have been saying for months: that the two major political parties of Bangladesh should sort out their differences through dialogue for the sake of a free, fair and participatory general election. Recently, US Assistant Secretary for South and Central Asian Affairs Donald Lu sent letters to Awami League, BNP and Jatiya Party (JaPa), inviting them to hold talks, without any condition attached, to end the current political stalemate.

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Dialogue or mere formality?

It is, we must admit, unfortunate that a foreign country needs to spell out the basics of how to resolve political differences—through political means—although doing so, amid zero signs of any attempt at reconciliation from any side, does add some pressure. Right now, AL and BNP are firmly set on a collision course, each refusing to budge on their stances: the first determined to go ahead with the election under the incumbent government, and the second (and other like-minded parties) adamant about having a neutral election-time government. So far, neither party seems very enthusiastic about Donald Lu's call. Only JaPa has expressed its interest, although, frankly, it may be of little consequence given its ceremonial role in the bigger scheme of things.

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Column by Mahfuz Anam: Towards a 'free and fair' election, indeed

Whether all parties will eventually see eye to eye on holding dialogue remains to be seen. But what is not being said enough is that the success of any dialogue requires a sense of being on equal footing for all parties. It requires building confidence and evening the playing ground a bit. That is proving to be a major hurdle with the ruling Awami League keeping the opposition on such a tight leash that it is, quite literally, unable to attend a dialogue even if it wants to, with many central leaders behind bars and local leaders and activists facing the triple whammy of arrests, cases, and imprisonment. This is hardly the ideal environment for dialogue, but this is also precisely why a dialogue must happen.

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Dialogue is not optional, it’s a must at this stage

With the election less than two months away, escalating tensions between the two major parties is creating an environment of fear in the country, particularly because of the spate of violence we have seen over the past few weeks. We do not want to see another election where people are deprived of the chance to elect representatives of their own choosing. Reportedly, the Election Commission (EC) is scheduled to sit down on Wednesday to plan the polls schedule. Regardless of the pointlessness of having a schedule without having the basic building blocks of a participatory election, we hope that AL and BNP will see the urgency of dialogue now more than ever. And to that end, AL must take the first step.

As we enter 2023, there remains palpable anxiety and nervousness about the national political landscape. It is expected that the 12th parliamentary election will be held at the end of this year or early next year, thereby making everything in politics revolve around the issue of the national election. In a way, the ruling Awami League has already kicked off its campaign, as the prime minister, in her last three public meetings – in Chattogram, Cox's Bazar, and Jashore – sought votes for "the boat" in the next parliamentary elections. Another such meeting is scheduled to be held in Rajshahi in the first week of February.

Steps have been taken to revive the almost dormant 14-party alliance by allocating them two parliamentary seats for the upcoming by-elections in six constituencies, which fell vacant due to the resignations of BNP members.

The resignations by those handful of BNP MPs were also a tactic of mounting pressure on the government to agree to the opposition's demand of reintroducing a non-partisan, poll-time caretaker government. The BNP and most other political parties have long been accusing the AL government of capturing all state institutions, including the Election Commission (EC), the police, and public administration by employing partisan officials in such a way that a fair election would not be possible as long as the incumbent government remains in office.

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Why provoke the opposition and punish citizens?

Though ironic, the AL, which had imported and ditched the caretaker system is now facing the toughest challenge over its reluctance to bring it back. Almost all other political parties, except those who are in alliance with the AL and the Jatiya Party (JP) – who had fought the last election under a seat-sharing deal – have already indicated that they wouldn't join any election under the current government.

Though the ministers have ruled out any deviation from the current form of the constitution in order to make the next election an inclusive exercise, it is hard to imagine a scenario where a repetition of either of the two previous elections would be acceptable to anyone both within the country and abroad.

In 2014, the AL had used the argument of constitutional continuity in governance to counter criticisms of uncontested renewal of office. But, in 2018, it realised that the same logic would not work again and made a strategic move to make the election inclusive. In February 2018, PM Sheikh Hasina even offered to form an all-party poll-time government and engaged in dialogue with opposition parties, including the BNP. It still remains a mystery why the BNP and its allies went on to participate in that election without replacing the partisan government with an all-party interim administration. As a result, the 2018 election, despite all its massive irregularities, including ballot stuffing the night before, became an inclusive election.

It is, therefore, expected that new tactics will be deployed by the AL in the next election. If the offer for an all-party government in 2018 was meant to produce a participatory election, would it be unreasonable to expect another new proposal from the government ahead of the upcoming general election? Such a proposal can change the course of political dynamics, after all.

The recent resurgence of BNP's organisational strength and support worries many political observers about the possibility of intense agitation and political violence throughout 2023. Despite such possibilities, there are signs that the BNP has learnt its lessons and has concluded that they are no match in political violence against the ruling party as long as police and the administration have not been neutralised.

Besides, the BNP has also lost hope in the current judicial system of getting any protection or relief from harassment and persecution. It explains why the party has taken a very cautious approach in maintaining peace and abiding by rules in holding protest rallies. Keeping protests peaceful despite losing 15 of its comrades in the ongoing movement, according to party members' claims, is rare in our political history.

Whether the BNP and other opposition parties will be able to maintain this policy of avoiding confrontation would be one of the telltale signs of what is to come in the rest of the year.

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Democracy Day 2022: Three decades of backsliding from pledges for democracy

This policy, so far, has helped the BNP hugely. Its mobilisation power, after 16 years out of government and continuous persecution for over a decade, has drawn everyone's attention. The ruling party has realised it, too. But, instead of making any attempt to negotiate the issues in contention, it appears that the AL has taken a provocative stance. It has been employing aggressive and confrontational programmes like organising parallel rallies and resorting to so-called peace enforcing activities, including searching mobile phones and surveilling opposition activists. Such anti-democratic provocations may result in violence if the opposition forces act in self-defence.

Pressures for negotiating a political solution over the issue of a free, fair, and credible election have been mounting from various stakeholders and others, too. Even the new chief election commissioner (CEC) has insisted that a consensus among political parties is essential for holding a good election.

CEC Kazi Habibul Awal first mentioned the need for a consensus on February 28, 2022, immediately after taking his oath, and since then has voiced this opinion several times. Though the BNP has refused to accept the current EC as a neutral referee, it doesn't nullify his plea for a consensus.

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Next Election: A Replay of Old Politics?

Similarly, foreign governments – Western ones, in particular – have been calling for a free, fair, and inclusive election which will meet international standards. More importantly, their definition of a free and fair election includes ensuring a level playing field for all potential contenders, full freedoms of speech and organisation, freedom of press, and respect of human rights.

Political observers have cited the exclusion of Bangladesh from President Biden's first Democracy Summit as a message to the current government that there's too much deficiency in democratic norms and practices, which need to be addressed. If such exclusion continues in the second Democracy Summit (scheduled for March 29-30), what impact will it have on the next national election?

Kamal Ahmed is an independent journalist. His Twitter handle is @ahmedka1

The government will allow BNP to hold programmes like rallies and processions but won't permit blockades or sit-ins that might lead to violence.

It is also thinking about imposing a ban on political programmes on weekdays, citing public sufferings.

Police sources said they learnt a lesson on Saturday and would be more alert in tackling political programmes in the coming days. The law enforcers will increase the deployment of forces and monitoring by intelligence agencies centring political programmes in future.

They will also conduct special drives to apprehend "troublemakers" and will not allow any illegal gathering on the streets, said officials, adding that there will be checkpoints in every key area of the capital.

Following clashes between police and BNP activists in the capital on Saturday, Awami League has decided to keep a tight grip on the streets and hold programmes regularly.

It, however, will not declare programmes to counter the BNP like it has been doing since December.

Party sources said AL will keep its activists ready to resist any BNP attempts to deteriorate law and order.

Speaking at a programme at Shilpakala Academy, Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan Kamal said law enforcers will not stand idle if anyone causes trouble in the name of agitation or assembly.

There is no problem with peaceful political programmes, but police will not allow blocking of roads, he added.

"We will allow BNP to conduct its peaceful political programme. But we will resist them if they want to create an anarchic situation and get involved in violence," AL Joint General Secretary AFM Bahauddin Nasim told The Daily Star.

He said, "We will take action according to the situation. If the BNP holds peaceful programmes, we will go slow. But if the BNP wants an unwanted situation to resist the election, it will be dealt with an iron fist."

He said AL will hold programmes like discussions, rallies, publicising of the government's achievements, mass contact, and run election campaigns regularly until the election.

According to party sources, AL in August will hold discussions and rallies in which it will describe the BNP-led four-party government's misrule.

In September, it will focus fully on campaigning.

Ruling party leaders think BNP's Saturday's programme is nothing but the party returning to the arson attacks it carried out in 2013-14.

"Like in the past, all terrorist activities and anarchies by BNP will be dealt with an iron fist," AL Joint General Secretary Mahbubul Alam Hanif told The Daily Star.

He said BNP on Saturday hinted that it was taking the same path it took in 2013 and 2014. "But they will not be allowed to do it again," he said.

Sheikh Bazlur Rahman, president of Dhaka city unit (north) AL, told this paper that his unit will hold several programmes until the election.

In a recent programme, DMP Commissioner Khandaker Golam Faruq said they may be compelled to impose a ban on political programmes if those result in public sufferings.

Asked about imposing any restrictions on the political programmes during weekdays, Faruq told The Daily Star yesterday, "We are discussing how to handle the programmes."

Harun Or Rashid, additional commissioner (detective branch) of Dhaka Metropolitan Police, said they would increase deployment and intelligence surveillance to avert any unwanted situation.