How wins may decide who'll be India's next president
With India's ruling Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party's emphatic win in assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand states and impressive performance in Manipur , the question now: how is it going to impact the elections for a new president due in July.
President Pranab Mukherjee, who was elected president five years ago, steps down on July 25 this year and BJP has a chance to install its own man or woman in the Rashtrapati Bhavan, the official residence of the Indian head of state.
Under the Indian Constitution, the presidential election is held in accordance with the system of proportional representation and voting takes place by secret ballot.
Unless there is a consensus, the president will be chosen by an electoral college consisting of lawmakers of both houses of parliament the Lok Sabha and the Rajya Sabha and elected members of the legislative assemblies of 29 states plus the federally-administered territory of Delhi and Puducherry. There are 776 parliamentarians and 4,120 states' legislators and the total strength of the electoral college is 10, 98,882 votes and the majority mark is 5,49,442 votes.
After its victory in UP where BJP and its allies have bagged 325 seats, in Uttarakhand where it has secured 57 seats, and a good show in Manipur where it has got 21 seats, BJP must have heaved a sigh of relief because it has made the saffron outfit's task of having its own president much easier.
BJP party has emphatic majority in the Lok Sabha, the lower House of parliament, but lacks majority in the Rajya Sabha, the upper House. It is already in power on its own in 12 states including Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Haryana, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh and Assam and in partnership with another party in Jammu and Kashmir and Andhra Pradesh.
Having won power in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand , BJP has decisively moved to assume power in Goa and Manipur states despite finishing a close second behind Congress there by roping the support of smaller regional parties and independent legislators. This will clearly propel the party into a more comfortable position to ensure the victory for its candidate in the presidential elections.
But that may not be sufficient given the complex calculus of the presidential election. In the electoral college, each vote also has a weightage or value depending on the size of the population he or she represents. Lawmakers have the highest value (708) for each vote while the value of a state legislator's vote depends on the population of the state. Uttar Pradesh, which is the most populous state with a population of 220 million, has higher weightage than any other state. The value of a UP legislator's vote (208 ) is the highest. So, the win in UP, which has 83,824 votes in the presidential election, will definitely come handy for BJP in the presidential polls. UP, Goa, Uttarakhand, Punjab and Manipur together account for 1,03,756 votes in Presidential poll.
At present, BJP is short of the required number of votes to push through its own candidate as president. Before the recent elections in the five states, it was estimated that BJP and its National Democratic Alliance (NDA) allies were short by about 75,000 votes to win the presidential election. However, post-assembly polls, BJP is expected to add 63,000 votes to its bag. It remains to be seen how BJP manages to bridge the deficit in the number game.
Political circles in Delhi are abuzz with speculation that BJP may seek the help of regional outfits like Biju Janata Dal, All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazagham and Telangana Rashtra Samiti which are in power in Odisha, Tamil Nadu and Telangana states respectively to make up for the gap.
Also falling vacant in August is the Indian vice president's office with incumbent Mohammed Hamid Ansari who will also complete his second five-year term in office. While BJP is certain to nominate one of their own for the post of president, the post of VP could be used by the party to trade off with an NDA ally.
To have President of its choice will help BJP to get turn into laws Bills passed by parliament smoothly and also in politically-sensitive situations like imposing federal rule in a state ruled by parties opposed to BJP, say analysts who point to the Indian Constitution in this regard.
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