What rocket launch may mean for world
North Korea launched a long-range rocket yesterday. Already, world leaders are lining up to condemn the launch. For help on what it all means, some things to consider about the North's latest move:
SATELLITE LAUNCH OR MISSILE TEST?
Washington, Seoul and others consider the launch a banned test of missile technology. That suspicion is based on the fact that Pyongyang has been openly pushing to manufacture nuclear-tipped missiles capable of striking the US mainland and that the technology used to launch a satellite-carrying rocket into space can be applied to fire a long-range missile.
Simply speaking, a rocket is called a space launch vehicle when it is used to send up a satellite into orbit, but it becomes a missile when its payload is a warhead. Getting a rocket into orbit takes less than 10 minutes. A missile would take about 30 minutes to travel from North Korea to the continental US, experts say.
WHAT'S NEW ABOUT THIS LAUNCH?
After several repeated failures, North Korea successfully put a satellite into orbit aboard its three-stage Unha-3 rocket in December 2012. The North's space agency said yesterday that it successfully put a new Earth observation satellite, the Kwangmyongsong 4, or Shining Star 4, into orbit less than 10 minutes after liftoff, and vowed more such launches. The United States and South Korea are still analysing the launch.
South Korean defence officials say that a North Korean missile developed earlier than the Unha-3 rocket of 2012 has an estimated potential range of up to 10,000 kilometres, which puts Hawaii and the northwest coast of the US mainland within reach.
Outside analysts say the successful flight of a rocket loaded with a satellite weighing about 1 ton would mean the North could probably develop a nuclear-armed long-range missile.
CONSEQUENCES
It's almost certain that the North will be slapped with fresh UN sanctions for the launch. But critics are skeptical over whether any new sanctions can stop North Korea from continuing to pursue its nuclear and rocket programs because China, North's last major ally and biggest aid benefactor and a veto-wielding power in the UN Security Council, is unwilling to cooperate on any harsh punishment on the North.
The launch gives Kim, the North's young leader, a chance to burnish his image domestically ahead of a landmark ruling Workers' Party convention in May.
Because the North claims the launch as a success, it may think it has increased leverage in diplomatic negotiations and eventually propose talks with the United States and South Korea to try to win concessions, said Koh Yu-hwan, a professor at Seoul's Dongguk University.
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