Sri Lanka Presidential election: Is it a recipe for instability?
An island nation is ticking as pressure builds up from within. The tear drop in the Indian Ocean, Sri Lanka, seems to be on the edge in political terms. Nearly two years ahead of schedule, Sri Lanka will go to the polls on January 8, with 68-year-old Mahinda Rajapaksa set to run for a third six year term -- a move widely seen as an attempt by the president to seek a fresh six-year mandate amid signs of fading popularity. Is he gambling with his political fate?
Another collateral issue has emerged, which is that his seeking a third term is illegal under the constitution because, according to the opposition, the language of the 18th Amendment to the
Sri Lankan constitution is prospective and not retrospective. This means that the amendment did not in fact remove the two-term limit for the incumbent President Rajapaksa, but only for future office-holders.
Meanwhile, the president got an unpleasant surprise when his former health minister, and general secretary of the president's party Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), Maithripala Sirisena, left the government and party (SLFP) to contest against the president. The surprise move has sparked an exodus from the SLFP. So far, 10 legislators have left the ruling party to support Sirisena.
The opposition United National Party leader Ranil Wickremesinghe and former foreign minister Mangala Samaraweera are believed to have played leading roles in bringing about Sirisena's candidacy.
Backed by the main opposition, UNP, Sirisena has vowed to abolish the president's executive powers and re-establish independent commissions to oversee the police, civil service and judiciary, and to monitor human rights. The Sri Lankan opposition has agreed to form an all-party government if it wins the presidential election. The joint opposition has also said that the current preferential voting system in Sri Lanka will be abolished and a new electoral system will be introduced.
Reporters Without Borders Press Freedom Index 2014 ranks Sri Lanka 165 out of 180. Journalists and media freedom advocates have slammed the Rajapaksa government for using violence and force against many journalists. International says that at least 15 journalists have been killed since 2006 and over 80 have gone into exile.
While the opposition candidate has become a formidable opponent to President Rajapaksa, the president remains popular among many Sinhalese voters. He is a skilled politician and has the ability, if not the authority, to marshal the full resources of the state in his favour.
Others believe that if Sirisena loses the election, the opposition may consider the victory of the president as constitutionally illegal. Many observers expect that, to counter the opposition's stance, re-elected Rajapaksa may call a parliamentary election -- or possibly a referendum -- to extend the life of the current parliament. As a result, either way, observers believe the outcome of the election may lead to further violence and political instability.
A legal challenge would likely ultimately be heard by the Supreme Court, which few observers consider an independent body following the installation of a Rajapaksa loyalist as chief justice in 2013.
Should Sirisena win, he may have trouble finding the two-thirds majority in parliament that is needed for constitutional reforms, or winning such a majority through the election of a new parliament. Should this be the case, his coalition's reform agenda would face serious problems.
Western governments have insisted that the government allow election monitors full access to all parts of the country for effective monitoring of the voting. Most importantly, all governments concerned with stability in Sri Lanka have sent clear messages to the Rajapaksa government that it must respect democratic processes and resist any temptation to cling to power through violent or extra-constitutional means.
The writer is Former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Geneva.
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