Myanmar's fragile peace talks grind to a halt
PEACE talks between the Myanmar government and the leaders of the country's ethnic rebel groups have stalled. After a protracted week of talks, the negotiations are at an impasse. The only thing they could agree on was to meet again. And as fresh fighting erupts in many ethnic areas, between government troops and rebel soldiers, there is a very real danger that the peace process will unravel altogether.
This was the sixth round of talks between the two sides, since the process started three years ago, after Thein Sein became president. Since then there have also been more than four hundred meetings between the government negotiators, either individually or collectively with the ethnic groups. Negotiating peace is no easy matter. And after more than six decades, in some cases, of fighting for greater autonomy, the mistrust between the ethnic rebels and the Myanmar army -- the Tatmadaw -- remains strong.
The fact that both sides are talking, and have agreed in principle to continue to meet is no mean feat under the circumstances. “It's bound to take time,” said Hla Maung Shwe, the spokesman for the Myanmar Peace Centre that hosted the talks. “The fact that they are still meeting and talking is a healthy sign,” he added.
There is no doubt that both sides are committed to peace. “After years of fighting, which has only resulted in more misery, peace is the only way forward,” the Karen leader at the talks, Kwe Htoo, told me. “Only a peace settlement can guarantee our people's security and rights,” he said emphatically. But it must be a just and equitable solution, he insisted. Of course as the ceasefire talks near the end, that is when it gets most difficult. Commitment is one thing, but poring over the details inevitably tests the process. “We are at a crucial point where details need to be clearly defined and agreed,” said Gun Maw leader of the Kachin delegation. “This has become a major sticking point. They [the government side] remain vague; often saying we do not have the power -- and need to refer it to a higher authority.”
Both sides accept that the ceasefire agreement will signal the start of a political dialogue that will involve the discussion of a federal state. A road map for these discussions was agreed at the last meeting, but remains contentious, with the army still reluctant to accept it. Overseeing and co-ordinating the process, from ceasefire to tripartite political discussions -- talks between the government, ethnic groups and political parties -- remains unresolved. But for some time now, the government negotiators have pressured the ethnic groups into signing the ceasefire agreement as quickly as possible. And have continually proposed one deadline after another. The first was in April last year; since then the chief negotiator has constantly announced that a ceasefire agreement was on the verge of being signed.
Since talks much earlier this year, the government has been pushing for the ceasefire talks to be wrapped in August. But last month's round of talks failed to see the two sides agree, though some progress was made. President Thein Sein has made it abundantly clear that he wants the deal done before the US President Barack Obama visits Myanmar in November. And pressure to sign before then was stepped up at these talks.
The army chief negotiator, Lieutenant General Myint Soe suggested to the ethnic leaders that October 31 was the best time to sign the agreement -- it was an auspicious date and the bad spirits will have been vanquished, he said. But clearly, throughout the meeting the army delegation continued their veiled threats that this could be the last round of talks if no agreement was reached, according to all the ethnic leaders I spoke to.“The military's threats and constant pressure to sign [the national ceasefire agreement] is counterproductive,” said Nai Hong Sar -- the chief negotiator for the ethnic side (the Nationwide Ceasefire Coordination Team or NCCT). On this point, all the ethnic leaders were in total agreement.
In fact, the pressure may have unified the ethnic representatives at the talks, as there had previously been a danger of the coalition group of 20 ethnic parties splitting, and the Karen National Union (KNU) going it alone -- as they are committed to a speedy, symbolic agreement -- whereas many of the others are loathe to take a 'leap in the dark' without concrete details being first agreed.“The KNU is less experienced in peace talks with the Tatmadaw, compared to others, and so are more inclined to believe the government,” said Nai Hong Sar -- who is also the Mon leader at the talks.
The worry now is that if the Tatmadaw does not compromise at the next round of talks, the schism within the group may re-emerge, with some prepared to sign in good faith without the details of the political dialogue being firmly agreed beforehand.“We are back to square one,” said Lian Sakhong, the Chin chief negotiator. There was a measure of agreement at the last meeting, especially on the political roadmap, but the army threw it all out and returned to their original six points. This included their crucial view that the ethnic groups had to accept the 2008 constitution -- which effectively reneged on the earlier acceptance of the principle of federalism as the basis of the political talks that would follow the signing of the ceasefire agreement.
At the previous talks in August the two sides agreed to political reform based on national equality, federation and political self-determination. But a day or so later Aung Min asked the ethnic leaders to drop the reference to self-determination, because the army did not accept it. The Kachin leader, Gun Maw at the time told me he had already suspected this would happen, but now they have made their position crystal clear, he said.
“There is no difference between us [ethnic groups]; the goal is not a ceasefire but political dialogue,” said Kwee Htoo. And that is now the key stumbling block. Despite an earlier agreement, the army insisted this time on discussing the future of the ethnic armies before political dialogue. Originally the disarmament issue was the final step in the roadmap. No ethnic leader can accept putting this before the political talks. “It's tantamount to asking us to surrender,” said the Karen leader Kwe Htoo. “That's something we cannot do,” he said.
“Of course we will disarm one day,” said the Kachin leader, Gun Maw, “but only after the political dialogue and constitutional change.” In the end the talks ground to a halt as three key sticking points remained. The government team was unable to give clear answers to points and questions raised, often answering it had to be referred to a higher authority -- presumably the army commander in chief. They avoided the issue of the interim period -- from the national ceasefire agreement through to the political dialogue and a national accord. This would then be ratified by parliament and put to a referendum. And even more critically, the military representatives wanted changes to the political roadmap, back-tracking on things that had already been agreed.
At the last meeting in August, the ethnic team suggested a coordinating committee or steering committee -- which would include government, military and ethnic representatives -- to oversee the whole process, and should be set up immediately. The government rejected this suggestion, which Gun Maw insists is non-negotiable. If it is not accepted, the talks cannot continue, he insisted. So this leaves the peace process at a total impasse; and now it may even be starting to unravel. “The ball is firmly in the government's court,” said Gun Maw. “We have done as much as we can, we have given as much as we can,” he told me at the end of the talks. It is now up to the government and the army to discuss all the issues raised and agree to them, he insisted. Otherwise the talks are unlikely to resume any time soon.
“We are so close, yet so far,” said the Chin lead negotiator, Lian Sakhong. “But my greatest fear is that fighting will resume, while the stalemate persists.” Already there are reports of renewed fighting in Karen, Kachin and Shan states. There have been several skirmishes and battles this week. This will only further damage the peace efforts. It has certainly heightened the ethnic leaders concerns. Many fear there may be an ulterior motive behind the army's renewed hard line on the talks and its actions on the ground. They fear that the army chief, Min Aung Hlaing has flipped and no longer is committed to peace in the near future. “I suspect the army leaders want to maintain the status quo until after the elections,” said the Kachin leader, Gun Maw. “They have no intentions of giving up their power and control any time soon.”
The writer is a freelance correspondent and political analyst based in Bangkok.
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