Is Bangladesh again in a cul de sac?
The awful thing about Bangladesh politics is that the political leaders never learn from history. In 2013, after a year of political disturbances when innocent people were killed, burnt and looted, everything came to a sudden halt on January 5, 2014. This was when the ruling Awami League (AL) held a one-sided election. The opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), who had boycotted the polls, left the fray without any representation in the national parliament. Exhausted and checkmated it went into a political hiatus. In the first anniversary of the one- sided polls this year, the BNP began the next round of agitation to obtain what it failed to get in the first round -- a truly representative parliament. The AL shot back by taking steps to again checkmate the BNP. The result is that, in a span of a week this year, we see history repeating itself.
This time the AL is using vicious tactics to deny BNP any traction through its agitations. It locked the BNP leader Khaleda Zia in her Gulshan party office by placing sand loaded trucks and padlocking the main gate. It announced that it was only protecting the life of the BNP leader as her party, through a letter a few days earlier, had said that her life was threatened. It was pure 'monkey business' by the ruling party. In retaliation, Khaleda Zia called her supporters to come out on the streets and voice their outrage. But the AL clamped down on all gatherings throughout the country. This was a clear breach of democratic practice. The government had started playing ducks and drakes with the weak BNP. Soon, the fundamentalist Jamaat party, which is in alliance with BNP and was already seething with anger because many of its leaders were incarcerated and convicted of 1971 war crimes, joined the agitation. The BNP leader, when denied the right to go out on the street and address a rally herself, called a general blockade (aborodh) of towns and cities including the capital. This time the police under political direction came out to arrest, beat up and put on trial all BNP agitators. What a difference a week has made to the peaceful life of people throughout the country.
The AL, during the respite in political agitation in 2014, geared up economic activities in the country. Its leadership, including the prime minister, promoted economic and social growth with fanfare. The people at large took steps to resonate with the government's desire. Things started to look up and it was felt that good sense had returned to the political leadership. But this does not seem to be so now. Can Bangladesh afford this as it is heading towards becoming a middle income country by 2021 -- when the country celebrates 50 years of its independence?
Fitch, an international financial rating agency, released a statement on January 9 stating that “renewed political tensions and violence in Bangladesh may negatively affect foreign investor confidence, raising risks to growth over the long term. If violence were to persist and directly disrupt economic activity, especially by inflicting long term harm to the key readymade garment (RMG) sector, this would be credit negative.” Reports of violence show that if political tensions remain high it may damage foreign investor perception regarding Bangladesh's stability. “Economic activity,” the statement continued, “could directly be affected in the short term if the violence and blockade continues. Protracted protests could also negatively affect domestic demand, consumer confidence, credit growth and by extension fiscal revenues, while also fuelling inflation.”
This warning note by Fitch should be taken seriously by all political parties. If the BNP thinks that it will achieve through violence what it cannot get politically it is sadly mistaken. The BNP leadership and supporters have many business persons in their cadres. Depriving economic oxygen to its own supporters would prove suicidal. Already, the BNP has been out of power for seven years. It is starved of finance. It is not able to field agitators on the streets because of paucity of funds which come from its rich supporters. This is not good news for the political leadership of BNP.
The AL claim of legitimacy in running the government is being increasingly questioned by the people because of the election a year ago. In that context, the AL's assertion of economic competence is also beginning to sound irrelevant. But no one can deny that the government has a strong grip on several levers of power, including the security apparatus. It has, therefore, decided that it is not interested for the moment to come to any political compromise with the BNP. It has repeatedly said that the AL can remain in power for another 4 years till 2019 when the next election is due. To many, this is wishful thinking. If the government does not come out of this political cul-de-sac there is little doubt that it can run through this fresh bout of violence smoothly.
Both our leaders, who have alternatively run the country a few times now, must think why and how they should compromise politically. Indeed, there is one strong reason why they are unlikely to come to terms. Both have their next generation waiting abroad to return and take the helm of government if possible. The two leaders are carrying on their feud, each hoping that a new dawn will blossom for her. But they forget that the people are also waiting. They may have other plans.
The writer is a former Ambassador and a commentator on current issues.
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