Dull stocks dampen consumer confidence
A nonchalant stockmarket has put a damper on consumer confidence in Bangladesh, though the consumers still remain very optimistic about the future, MasterCard said in a survey yesterday.
The country scored 75.3 out of 100 with an eight-point fall in the MasterCard Index of Consumer Confidence in the first half of 2015.
The slide resulted from a 21-point decline in confidence in the outlook of the local stockmarket, said the survey, which was conducted by Ipsos Singapore, a research firm, in Bangladesh from May to June this year.
Dhaka Stock Exchange passed a lacklustre first half of the year dragged down by prolonged political unrest during the first quarter. The benchmark index of the premier bourse, which closed at 4,864.96 at the end of 2014, dropped 5.79 percent to 4,583.10 on June 30 before dipping below the 4,000 mark in May on poor corporate earnings.
The respondents of the survey were 405 men and women aged 18-64 who are citizens, permanent residents or lived in the country for at least five years and current owners of payment cards or hold a bank account in Dhaka, Chittagong or Sylhet.
They were asked to give a six-month outlook on five economic factors: the economy, employment prospects, regular income prospects, the stockmarket, and their quality of life.
In the index, zero represents the most pessimistic view, 100 the most optimistic and 50 neutral.
According to the survey, 75 percent respondents were male and the rest female, with their average monthly household income being $334. Of them, 62 percent live in Dhaka, 25 percent in Chittagong and 12 percent in Sylhet.
Some 52 percent are hopeful of a better economy in the next six months. Thirty-nine percent said the economic condition would remain the same, while 9 percent feared the worse.
On employment, 51 percent said the next six months would be better while 38 percent said the situation would be the same and 11 percent feared it may worsen.
Forty-six percent said the quality of life would improve in the second half of the year, while 38 percent hoped for a status quo and 16 percent are expecting the situation to become worse.
Less than a quarter of the respondents said the situation of the stockmarket might improve in the second half of 2015, while 47 percent said the situation will remain the same and 28 percent are fearing a worse situation.
The total number of respondents was 8,718, aged 18 to 64 in 17 Asia Pacific markets in the complete survey.
Although consumers in Asia Pacific remain generally optimistic about the future, the level of optimism is beginning to recede in a number of markets, the survey report said.
The decline comes off the back of a 10-year high in optimism levels in the second half of 2014 and reflects an increasingly uncertain economic outlook.
Collectively, Asia Pacific markets remain optimistic -- levels of optimism are stable at 66.1 index points in the first half of 2015 compared to 68.3 index points in the same period of 2014.
The stability reflects the fact that the most pessimistic markets are showing signs of improvement, while the most optimistic are showing decreased confidence.
In Southeast Asia, the Philippines (81.4), Singapore (65.3) and Vietnam (86.9) remain stable with increases of less than 5 points. Malaysia (44.9) moves further into pessimistic territory with -5 points.
India's consumer confidence remains in the extremely optimistic territory (93.1, +1.5). It is the only market among the 17 that is above 90 points and its consumers are extremely optimistic about the future, said Matthew Driver, a group executive of MasterCard for Asia Pacific.
"Consumer confidence is a more nuanced story for Asia Pacific in 2015 as economic uncertainty has begun to impact more developing markets,” he said in a statement.
Sri Lanka makes its debut in the Index of Consumer Confidence at 67.5 putting it in the optimistic territory.
The MasterCard Index survey has a 20-year track record of consumer confidence indices collected from over 200,000 interviews – the longest running survey of its kind in the region.
The survey began in the first half of 1993 and has been conducted twice yearly since.
The Asia Pacific markets surveyed are: Australia, Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Myanmar, New Zealand, the Philippines, South Korea, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam.
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