What is happening in the name of a general election on January 7 is, in reality, an attempt to take away people's voting rights. In a real election, all contestants can take part freely, and voters have several options to choose from to be their representatives. As we can see, voters won't really have many choices on January 7. The Awami League has put up its own candidates as its "rival" contestants. Its allies did not have confidence in this "rivalry"; hence, they sought assurance on seat-sharing beforehand, and the ruling party came to an understanding with the allies in this regard. Besides, unofficial arrangements are being made to ensure seats for some.

In the rest of the seats where the ruling party is claiming to have the so-called "contest," the main Awami League candidates are competing against dummy or "independent" candidates put up by the party to make the election look free and fair. When this is the situation, this election cannot be considered a proper one. We think the people of the country have rejected this election seeing it for what it really is: a farce.

Though the ruling party has been claiming to want a participatory election, they have created such a situation—cracking down on opposition parties and arresting their leaders—that there is little scope for the main opposition to enter the race. Many political parties, including Ganosamhati Andolan, have been claiming for a long time that a free and fair election is not possible under a partisan government. This has always been the case, and it was the Awami League which, as the party in opposition, waged a movement to establish a neutral caretaker government system.

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Nothing is normal if we don’t have our rights

However, the caretaker government system had some practical flaws. The Awami League accused BNP of trying to influence the caretaker government as well. Hence, a proposition to amend these flaws was raised, and even Awami League's parliamentary committee tabled some proposals to that end. But when it came back to power, it opted to scrap the caretaker government system altogether through the 15th Amendment of the constitution and made elections under the partisan government constitutional in 2011.

Since then, the ruling party has been parroting that the election must be held in accordance with the constitution. We have witnessed two general elections under the Awami League government: In 2014, we saw an election where half the seats were won uncontested, and in 2018, ballot stuffing happened the night before election day. These two elections proved without a shred of doubt that a free and fair election is not possible under a partisan government. So the main opposition has, quite logically, raised their demand for a caretaker government system to be framed in the constitution. And this demand is based on political consensus.

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What comes after January 7?

The Awami League could have done it if it wanted to. But instead, they snuffed out any possibilities of a dialogue. And using the planned violence at the BNP rally October 28, they cracked down on the BNP members.

So the main opposition's decision to boycott the January 7 election can be considered fair. They are also urging ordinary people to boycott the election. This appeal is getting significant positive response from the people, and the government knows that.

If you look at the history of parliamentary elections in the country, it is evident how enthusiastic Bangladeshis are about exercising their voting rights. For instance, the participation of voters in the 1991 election was 58 percent, 74-75 percent in 1996, 75-76 percent in 2001, and almost 86 percent in 2008. This time, however, the Awami League government is holding an election where they themselves are saying that the main challenge is to bring voters to the polling centres.

Since voters are reluctant to take part in this election, the ruling party has resorted to intimidation tactics, such as taking away VGF, elderly allowance, widow allowance, etc cards from social safety net beneficiaries, holding the cards until after the election, telling the voters they could get their cards back after they vote on January 7. In some cases, we have seen how supporters of the main opposition are being threatened to go to the polling booths, threatening to withhold important public services like birth registration, character certificate issuance, etc if they don't. Such threats violate people's freedom of choosing to vote. This is how the ruling regime is trying to validate this farce of an election.

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Can BNP survive the pre-election meltdown?

It may seem too late to state this now, but we believe that it is still possible to hold a participatory election by disbanding the parliament—the constitution allows a 90-day period to hold a national election following the disbandment of a parliament. During this period, the authorities can engage with the main opposition to resolve this political crisis. We urge all relevant authorities to take this route.

Translated from Bangla by Sumaiya Binte Shams.

Zonayed Saki is chief coordinator of Ganosamhati Andolan.

Views expressed in this article are the author's own.

Follow The Daily Star Opinion on Facebook for the latest opinions, commentaries and analyses by experts and professionals. To contribute your article or letter to The Daily Star Opinion, see our guidelines for submission. 

The BNP will not participate in the upcoming upazila polls as per its previous decision, but it has two different thoughts on the elections.

The party's first thought is to boycott the polls to make sure the turnout of voters remains low like it happened in the January 7 national polls. The BNP also mulls over not being harsh on the party leaders who would participate in the local government polls, said party sources.

They said the party high-ups will observe the situation for a few days. If the grassroots leaders want to run in the polls as independents, they will not be stopped or expelled.

The ruling Awami League on Monday decided that it would not allow its leaders to use its electoral symbol "boat" in the upazila elections.

After the announcement, The Daily Star talked with some central and upazila-level BNP leaders to know their views on the upazila election.

The BNP has been staying away from all polls since 2019 and it expelled the leaders who contested elections going against the party's decision.

Many party leaders are in favour of contesting the upazila polls. They believe as senior party leaders, including Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, may walk out of jail on bail before the announcement of the polls schedule, the issue may be discussed seriously then.

"What will be our achievement through boycotting the polls if we cannot ensure a poor turnout?"

— An upazila-level BNP leader

The upazila polls issue was discussed recently in the party's standing committee meeting, but no decision was made, said party insiders, adding that the opinion of the grassroots leaders will also be taken into consideration.

"We are yet to discuss the issue in the party forum [after the Awami League's decision], but one thing is certain: people have no confidence in any election held under a partisan government," Goyeshwar Chandra Roy, a standing committee member of the BNP, told The Daily Star yesterday.

Another standing committee member said people boycotted the parliamentary polls in response to the BNP's call and that's why the party cannot run in the upazila election.

"If the BNP contests the polls, it may send a wrong message to the people as well. Many of the party men are still behind bars. If the party announces that it will run, fresh arrests may be made," said BNP leader Anwarul Huq, also a former chairman of Noakhali's Sonaimuri upazila.

Another senior BNP leader said the AL may adopt the strategy of fielding "dummy candidates" like it did in the national polls to ensure a festive polls atmosphere.

"If the party grassroots don't show any interest in contesting the upazila elections, then the party may call upon the people to boycott the polls," he told this correspondent wishing anonymity.

Party leaders said the upazila chairmen and vice chairmen candidates usually maintain close communication with the local people and that's why turnouts in the local government elections always remain high.

Besides, people also consider many local issues in the local government polls for which the BNP will find it difficult to keep the turnout low, they observed.

"What will be our achievement through boycotting the polls if we cannot ensure a poor turnout?" said an upazila-level BNP leader.

He argued if the BNP joins the elections, the party candidates would come under attacks, which in turn could expose the government's intention and justify the BNP's decision of boycotting the parliamentary elections.

BNP Senior Joint Secretary General Ruhul Kabir Rizvi yesterday at a press briefing at the party's Nayapaltan central office said no election under Sheikh Hasina will be fair, credible, and peaceful.

"So, the BNP had decided not to participate in any elections under Sheikh Hasina. The party still stands by that decision," he added.

Leaders of major political parties used the Eid holidays to campaign for the parliamentary elections scheduled for 2019.

Believing that the Eid holidays were a key opportunity for reaching out to a large number of constituents, leaders of ruling Awami League, the BNP and main opposition Jatiya Party rushed to their constituencies before Eid and campaigned throughout the holidays, said party leaders.

This year the presence of young politicians in their constituencies was significant and hundreds of party ticket hopefuls campaigned.

The party ticket hopefuls even distributed food and clothes among their constituents.

Those not MPs expressed their eagerness to run in 2019 while the incumbent lawmakers told their constituents that it was imperative they get elected again to finish their work.

The leaders sought the voters' blessings.

Even AL President Sheikh Hasina and BNP Chairperson Khaleda Zia spoke about the elections in their Eid greeting speeches.

After exchanging Eid greetings at the Gono Bhaban, Hasina said, "We want cooperation from all ... we want to make the country free from hunger and poverty and make it a prosperous one as dreamt by Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman."

BNP Chairperson Khaleda Zia while exchanging Eid greetings at Bangabandhu International Conference Centre said the next national election must be held under a supportive-government with the deployment of the army to install a pro-people administration to end public sufferings and ensure good governance.

The Election Commission has already drafted the roadmap for the next elections. The two major political parties have been internally preparing for the polls. 

Khaleda has sought votes for the BNP and had unveiled the party's Vision 2030. She said no MP would go unchallenged in the next polls.

BNP leaders believe that they would run in the next election whatever the situation.

A large number of AL leaders, especially young leaders, visited their constituencies and areas and sought people's blessing after Hasina declared that those with close ties with constituents would get party nominations.

Apart from incumbent AL MPs, young leaders like Ashim Kumar Ukil, Aminul Islam Amin, Badiuzzaman Bhuiyan Dablu, Afzal Hossain, Enamul Haque Shamim, Sujit Roy Nandi, ABM Reazul Kabir Kawsar, Marufa Akter Popy, Mahmud Hasan Ripon, Saifuzzaman Shikor, Shafi Ahmed, Ajoy Kar Khokan, Mainul Hossain Khan Nikil, Sajjad Shakib Badsha, Aktaruzzaman Babu, Sheikh Sohel Rana Tipu, Nafiul Karim Nafa, Badiuzzaman Shohagh, Zahiruddin Mahmud Lipton were seen campaigning in their areas.

Our Rangpur correspondent said a number of MP hopefuls of different parties visited constituencies of the district.

Local BNP leader Saiful Islam sought vote for BNP after the Eid congregation at Pirganj Eidgah while AL MP Ahasanul Hoque Chowdhury of Rangpur-2 sought vote for Boat in next polls. Boat is the electoral symbol of the AL.

Our Sylhet correspondent added that Khandakar Abdul Muktadir, adviser to the BNP chairperson, carried out a month-long campaign in Sylhet-1 constituency and expressed his desire to run in the next polls.

Finance Minister AMA Muhith is the incumbent MP of Sylhet-1.

Abdul Momen, younger brother of Muhith, Shahed Muhith, son of Muhith, and AL Organising Secretary Misbah Uddin Seraj also campaigned in the same constituency.

For the last few months, AL leaders Ashim Kumar Ukil, Reazul Kabir Kawsar, Badiuzzaman Bhuiyan Dablu, Afzal Hossain and Misbah Uddin Seraj have been staying mostly in their areas to campaign, sources said.

Bangladesh, one of Asia's most promising cases of growth under democracy, will head to the polls on January 7.

The country has become a test case for electoral democracy, with the election marked by descriptions of being "staged" and a "farce" even before the actual voting begins.

With tens of thousands of opposition leaders and activists arrested in a crackdown ahead of the election, Sheikh Hasina—leader of Awami League—is all set to serve as Bangladesh's Prime Minister for the fourth consecutive time.

Bangladesh already has a long legacy of election controversies.

Two consecutive rigged national elections since 2014 have been sustained by a hidden alliance of power elites that cuts across all key institutions—civil and military bureaucracy as well as the legal and business elites.

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The AL cannot validate this farce of an election with intimidation

Each of these key power groups has become highly partisan and stands to benefit from political continuity.

In the aftermath of the last election in 2018, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party waited out Sheikh Hasina's new government, hoping they would bring about their own downfall as cronies crippled financial and other market-enabling institutions, pushing the economy on the edge.

Despite decades of sustained GDP growth and improvements in social indicators, Bangladesh's economy is now on a fragile footing. The incumbent government faces a moderate risk of running out of reserves.

A series of negotiated loans from international financial institutions such as the World Bank, International Monetary Fund, and the Asian Development Bank recently helped avoid a Sri Lanka-like fate. Despite those multilateral concessional loans, Bangladesh's financial crisis  is not over; the structural fault lines remain clear.

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Can a free, fair election liberate us from depraved politics?

The International Monetary Fund has expressed concerns over risks of capital flight. In September 2023, the US government also intensified external pressure by issuing a visa embargo on those engaged in suppressing opposition and labour leaders.

Further foreign sanctions could lead to costly fallouts. In 2013, the US government punished Bangladesh for its failure to protect worker rights by leaving it out of the generalised system of preference list of countries.

This subsequently hurt Bangladesh's export diversification efforts. That legacy remains: Bangladesh's sole reliance on readymade garment exports leaves it extremely vulnerable to external shocks.

The gravity of new sanctions must not be ignored—especially considering that Bangladesh's economy is at a crossroads.

As the country is set to graduate out of Least Developed Country status, it will lose the duty-free benefits under preferential tariffs.

At the same time, it has to phase out the existing export subsidies for readymade garment factory owners while reducing protection afforded to import-substituting businesses.

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Politicians’ wealth surge and why nations fail

The latter is owing to unusually high nominal tariffs on the import of raw materials. This means a potential double negative shock to export earnings and import duty revenue.

With every branch of the government already deeply politicised and led by individuals loyal to the prime minister, there is little political accountability left. Another sham election will further weaken bureaucracy, the legal system and financial institutions. All these also will mean reduced state capacity.

On the domestic front, the unholy alliance with oligarchs will further constrain the government's ability to implement tariff and subsidy reform as well as restore fiscal discipline.

As the repayment schedule for many of the costly loans to finance controversial mega projects begins, the tax-to-GDP ratio will need to increase while local banks need to recover bad loans. Fighting tax evasion and bringing loan defaulters to book will only become harder.

On the external front, the risk of external debt distress remains low given the high share of concessional loans.  Yet prominent Bangladeshi think tank Centre for Policy Dialogue warns that Bangladesh's external debt situation may soon slip into the yellow zone in 2024-2025.

According to one projection, the debt-to-GDP ratio will cross the 100 percent mark in 2024. By lowering export receipts, a trade sanction may further add to popular concerns over debt sustainability.

Other related risks involve increase in speculative behaviour by foreign traders in anticipation of further depreciation of Bangladeshi currency. This may worsen the ongoing dollar crisis.

Ultimately, another election without choice in Bangladesh is likely to come at a hefty cost. What some had hoped would be Asia's next tiger economy may be soon heading for a deeper economic crisis, reversing years of gains.

After 15 years of continuous rule by Awami League, Bangladesh's culture of election engineering has coincided with cronyism and institutionalised corruption.

Most worryingly, this has polarised Bangladeshi society and weakened all key institutions including the parliament.

With the enduring absence of a credible opposition party, a free press and an independent legal system, prospects of economic recovery from further shocks look grim as critical reforms will become increasingly challenging.

It will be something of a miracle if Bangladesh's economy continues to thrive within a democratic autocracy without experiencing a major social and economic collapse by 2025.

M Niaz Asadullah is a professor of development economics at Monash University Malaysia and Global Labour Organization Southeast Asia Lead.

Originally published under Creative Commons by 360info.

Views expressed in this article are the author's own.

Follow The Daily Star Opinion on Facebook for the latest opinions, commentaries and analyses by experts and professionals. To contribute your article or letter to The Daily Star Opinion, see our guidelines for submission. 

As the 12th National Parliamentary Election is only a few days ahead, aspirants are going above and beyond with their promotional activities to showcase what they can bring to the table. While every alleyway, street and locality has been adorned with posters, the most impressive promotion of this election is perhaps the innovative and catchy songs that are being played at political stalls, through mikes, moving vans and rickshaws.

One of the most popular songs in this category is "Joy Bangla, Jitbe Abar Nouka", voiced by GM Ashraf and others. The timely and catchy lyrics, tonality and energy that the song ensues made it an instant hit in the 2018 parliamentary election, and it resurfaces with all its old glory with its new version released in November.

The producer of the song, Towhid Hossain, said in an interview they did not think that this song would become this successful, they wanted to make a song that would resonate with the youth of the country. "I and my team tried to create something that not only be promotional but will engage and mobilise people, mostly the younger generation, that's all."

"The song became so popular that even Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina met us and praised it. It's an achievement in itself. We added the new success stories, such as the inauguration of Metro Rail, Padma Multipurpose Bridge and Sheikh Hasina's leadership in handling the Covid-19 pandemic, to the song to make it even more relevant," said Towhid.

While the aforementioned song got over on its quality itself, many others have used the Internet to become viral, as did the eccentric rap song by Nadif Sani, "Manik Bhai er Salam Nin, Guys Be Careful", to promote politician Hasibur Rahman Manik. Nadif, an Old Dhaka resident, became the talk of the town when various videos became subject to memes on the Internet. The singer has gone on to make various renditions of this song.

The same happened to "Daisy Apar Salam Nin", meant to promote Awami League-backed Aleya Sarwar Daisy, which became an instant hit after its initial release. The rap song, made by an artiste named Qpid, is comprised of the lyrics "Daisy Apa'r Dui Noyon, 31 er Unnoyon", which instantly resonated with the people. Meme-makers on Facebook had a field day with the video.

On a more serious note, this election's top picks will be one of Bangladesh Awami League's theme songs, "Ekti Doler Jonno", composed and arranged by Pavel Areen and sung by Pantha Kanai, Chandana Mojumdar, Dilshad Nahar Kona, and Masha Islam, amongst others. Another is "Amra Joy Banglar Louk", composed by Emon Chowdhury.

Other popular songs include "Noukar Pale Legeche Hawa", "Teknaf Theke Tetulia", "Bar Bar Dorkar Sheikh Hasinar Sorkar", "Sheikh Hasinar Sarker Barbar Dorkar", "Khela Hobe", which are making waves across the country with AL followers flaunting their dance moves and support in poster-filled caravans.

Prominent singer Momotaz is probably having the most effective campaign as she is utilising her musical talents with prose to mobilise the people in her Manikganj-02 constituency. She has been seen readily making new songs and singing them at her electoral campaigns across the region. She also sang in Pritom Hasan's composition "Amra Nouka Chalai Re" and other favourites, such as "Sob Netar Chaite Amar Sheikh Hasinai Bhala", which are also being used in her and several others' campaigns. Emon Chowdhury makes yet another return to this list with "Amra Achhi Mathe".

Followers of popular politician, Sheikh Tonmoy of Bagerhat-02 constituency are using "Tonmoy Bhaike Vote Dile Hobe Unnoyon",  Mahiya Mahi's Rajshahi-1 constituency "MP Nayika Mahire Truck Markai Ekta Vote Diye Ja" adapted from the famous Fifa World Cup'18 theme song "Ale Ale", Ferdous Ahmed's Dhaka-10 constituency "Sheikh Hasinar Nayok Ferdous Jitbe Re", former Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan's "Kamal Bhai Er Hobe Joy" and politician Momin Munzil's followers are using "Momin Munzil Bhai Abar Nouka Paiyachhe", inspired from a puthi song, to further their campaigns.

Songs like "Bolo Heiya", "Truck Markai Vote Chai", and "Jonotar Prarthi Kamarul Bhai", amongst others, are being played loudly through rickshaws, vans and in campaign stalls around Dhaka-06 constituency.

Although Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is not participating in the upcoming elections, followers of the party have not backed down from showing their love to the party by playing,  "Khaleda Zia Jindabad", Baby Naznin's "Gonotontrer Maa Khaleda Zia" and Asif Akbar's "Jonmo Tomar Juddhe Jawar" and "Jailer Bhetor Maa Ke Ar Thakte Debo Na", in a relatively more subdued manner.

A notable trend within these songs is the fact that they are often based on other popular songs, and these templates are reused constantly. Politicians often depend on local sound mixing studios to make their own songs from a varied number of previously recorded templates. The Daily Star spoke to one of these studios, Kallyanpur's Komol Media. "We provide these services at every election, from national to regional. Our songs get used across the country over the years," said the owner, Masum Rana.

"Most of our customers want modified versions of the old with their names and electoral symbols, as those are the most familiar and relevant to the voters, and also less costly. We also make new songs, but we take one or two days for that, and in that case, we charge extra," said Masum.

He informed that as they have their singers and sound designers ready during the election time, they only need 20 minutes and around Tk 2,000 to Tk 5,000 per song, based on the requirements of their clients. "Once the song is ready, we provide the song via a pen drive or links so that they can play them in any medium they want. We also upload it to our YouTube channel to attract clients," he added.

Masum Rana also adds this practice has been going on for years, and he has never faced any hurdles or problems from the concerned authority ever regarding copyrights.

Speaking to followers in several stalls across the Farmgate and Panthapath area of the capital, The Daily Star found that the followers mostly played these songs from YouTube, and downloaded files provided by the senior members of the concerned political leader. In the case of soundbox-laden rickshaws, or vans, they operate as per day allowances in their respective locality.

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A fight for survival: Jatra artistes in dire financial crisis due to elections

The Copyright Act 2000 and Copyright Rules 2006 in Bangladesh provide legal protection for musical work. A musician's copyright is seen as being just as valuable as an author's right in legalese. Nonetheless, in terms of these political songs, no consequence has been noted whenever they lift the tune or music from a preexisting popular song.

As the 2024 parliamentary elections are just around the corner, expect to be hearing more creative, catchy and sometimes obnoxious songs around your locality. However, there are some real musical gems hidden everywhere, even in songs used as political tools.