In 1988, we saw how Ershad held the election even though there was a movement against him by multiple alliances. On February 15, 1996, BNP held the election despite strong opposition from Awami League and left-leaning parties. And, in 2014, Awami League held the election even though BNP put up a strong resistance and leftist parties also did not participate. So, Ershad's regime, Awami League, and BNP have all held elections with the help of the police and administration while ignoring public opinion. Thus, if history is any indication, it can be said that Awami League will also hold the 12th parliamentary election using the police, the administration, its political power, and aggression.

But we also believe the kind of election that is about to take place will be unprecedented and unheard-of in Bangladesh. Unprecedented because never in our history has a party split into two as a strategy to hold the national election. It is unheard of because we have yet to see any party placing dummy candidates to make the election look competitive. We have witnessed 11 national elections in the last 52 years, but never have we seen an election where the contest is between ami (me) and the "dummy." One quip making the rounds is that the one of January 7 will be a "dummy-cratic" election. When do people resort to satire? When they can neither accept the reality, nor resist or change it. So, for the common people, this election has become a satirical election.

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‘Even before the election, there is no question as to who the elected will be.’

There are two sides of an election: a legal side and a moral side. Our Election Commission (EC) has said that even if one percent of the votes are cast, the election will be deemed legitimate. The stance of the EC is clear: it cares little about whether democratic values are upheld in this election.

What will be the consequences of such a farcical election? It will definitely have a long-term impact on our political culture as well as on our economic life. After the election is over, the meaning of democracy will change to mean coercion. People will know for sure that everything can be given legitimacy by abusing power and using force. Plus, how will the government address the impending economic crisis? One way would be to burden the people with increasing levels of tax, which will also raise inflation and make people's lives even more difficult. Since the people will be dissatisfied, the government will have to resort to new repressive measures to contain the discontent. So, it will not be as easy for Awami League to run the country during the upcoming five years.

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‘I see no reason to call this an election.’

This election, 571 candidates have movable or liquid assets of over Tk 1 crore. And 18 of them have property worth Tk 100 crore. The parliament has now turned into a club of businessmen. It is shocking that our ministers, members of the parliament, and the ruling party candidates have amassed such huge amounts of wealth when people's lives have been miserable of late due to rising inflation and cost of living. All this time, these politicians blamed the global recession, Covid-induced economic uncertainties, and the economic fallout of the Russia-Ukraine war. Strangely, these could not stop them from amassing wealth. But will these financial irregularities ever be addressed?

On the one hand, rising cost of living and the gradually shrinking democratic space are making people's lives unbearable. On the other hand, the wealth of those in power is increasing, alongside their misrule. This signals that we may see strong resistance of unexpected scale from the people in future.

Razekuzzaman Ratan is assistant general secretary of Bangladesher Samajtantrik Dal (BSD).

Views expressed in this article are the author's own.

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Nearly half of the BNP candidates who took part in Sunday's election lost their security deposits for failing to secure the minimum votes, according to an analysis of the results of 214 constituencies.

This is the highest number of BNP candidates to have lost security money since the party was formed in 1979.

Under the election law, candidates have to deposit a certain amount of money to the government exchequer to stand in the election. The amount is fixed before every election, and it was Tk 20,000 per candidate this year.

To get the money back, candidates must obtain at least one-eighth of the total vote cast in their seats.

But as many as 214 BNP candidates bagged only 13 percent of the total votes. Of them, 101 candidates secured fewer than one-eighth votes and lost their security money, according to the analysis by The Daily Star.

According to the unofficial results from 298 seats, the AL has bagged 259 seats, Jatiya Party 20 and BNP only five seats.

The BNP has never faced such a situation in any election since June 1996, when it became the largest opposition party in parliament with 116 seats. In that election, only 36 BNP candidates lost their security money.

Even in the 2008 polls, when it bagged just 30 seats, only 14 BNP candidates lost their deposits.

In that polls, held under an army-backed caretaker government, the party fielded 260 candidates and won 32 percent of the total votes cast in those constituencies.

The BNP boycotted the 2014 parliamentary polls, as the ruling Awami League government refused to meet its demand for an election under a nonpartisan administration.

This time, its candidates lost their security deposits even in the districts traditionally known as BNP stronghold -- Chattogram, Noakhali, Feni, Cumilla and Natore.

For example, the BNP candidate in Chattagram-1 got only 3,911 votes. In 2008, the party candidate secured 94,665 votes there.

In Cumilla-5, the BNP nominee got 12,113 votes this time, down from 77,260 in 2008. In Feni-2, the party candidate got 1,20,297 votes in 2008 polls and won the seat. In Sunday's election, the BNP aspirant got just 5,784 votes.

In Laxmipur-1, the BNP candidate secured 74,276 votes in 2008. It came down to just 3,892 this time. 

In Natore-1 and 2, the party candidates got 15,338 votes and 13,197 respectively this time, down from over 1 lakh votes in each of these seats in 2008.

The disclosures of the Transparency International Bangladesh (TIB) vis-à-vis the assets of candidates contesting in the 12th parliamentary election cannot be called exactly sensational. Over the past couple of weeks, we have seen similar, if selected, dissections of the affidavits submitted by candidates to the Election Commission. But the TIB provides a broad, comparative overview of their assets, bringing into critical focus the state of politics—and politicians—in today's Bangladesh.

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Turn candidates' halafnama into amalnama

For example, according to the TIB, the 2024 election is set to witness the highest number of candidates with movable or liquid assets of at least Tk 1 crore in recent history. From 274 in 2008 election and 522 in 2018 election, the number of such candidates has surged to 571 this time around. Unsurprisingly, the ruling Awami League has seen the highest surge: in 2008, 28 percent of its candidates had such wealth, which has now ballooned to 86.96 percent—constituting 235 of its 286 nominees. Moreover, the TIB report identified 18 candidates possessing assets worth over Tk 100 crore, and some possessing over Tk 200-300 crore. Some ministers and lawmakers have also seen astronomical increases in their wealth with percentages ranging from several hundred to thousands!

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Corrupt candidates will only enable corruption

Unfortunately, the picture that has emerged of the financial health of candidates may only be the tip of the iceberg, as the TIB has only reviewed their movable or liquid assets, not real estates. Add to that the gross undervaluation of assets by some, presumably to evade taxes, and the tendency of not disclosing all assets, as in the case of a minister who allegedly concealed information about UK-based businesses valued at Tk 2,312 crore. All this is deeply troubling.

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Politicians’ wealth surge and why nations fail

While having wealth itself cannot be reason enough to disqualify a candidate, the massive surge in their wealth as well as number raises critical concerns about the widening economic disparity in society, fair electoral representation, and corruption in politics. Affidavits submitted by the candidates should thus be thoroughly examined to check potential irregularities. Unfortunately, the relevant authorities, including the Election Commission, Anti-Corruption Commission, and National Board of Revenue, have yet to signal their readiness to do so. This must change. While one cannot expect much from an election that the opposition camp has already boycotted, these candidates, many among them potential lawmakers, have a big task at hands, and their honesty and integrity to serve the public must be judged for the sake of our future.