A six-member Election Exploratory Mission from the European Union arrived in Dhaka early today to assess the overall environment surrounding the national elections scheduled for December this year or early next year.

During the two-week visit, the EU delegation will talk to all the stakeholders -- government, political parties, Election Commission, security officials, civil society and media.

It is an independent professional exercise and not a political EU mission.

"They will have to decide if it is feasible, useful and advisable to deploy a full EU observation mission," EU Ambassador to Bangladesh Charles Whiteley told The Daily Star.

"The task of this mission will be to assess the scope, planning, budget, logistics and security of the main election observation mission," Mohammad Rafiqul Alam, foreign ministry's director general (additional charge) of public diplomacy wing, told reporters at the weekly briefing at the foreign ministry on Thursday.

The visit takes place at the invitation of the Election Commission and the foreign ministry has little to do in this regard, he added.

Based on the assessment report that will be submitted to the EU High Representative Josep Borrell, the EU will decide whether to send a full-fledged Election Observation Mission (EOM) before the next national elections.

The EU delegation in Dhaka has not made public the schedules of the mission's activities in Dhaka.

"So far there is no plan for media engagement. Their [mission members'] names have also not been made public because the delegation wants to be fully independent and unbiased," a diplomatic source said.

Meanwhile, election analysts said assessment of the mission is a determining factor for other international observers to decide if they would also come to Bangladesh to observing the elections.

The EU did not send election observers in 2018.

EU's Election Exploratory Mission will leave the country on July 23.

The ruling Awami League's 22nd council concluded on Saturday, electing Sheikh Hasina as its president for a record 10th consecutive time. Obaidul Quader made a hattrick as the general secretary. The national triennial council ended, as expected – even before the council – without any major changes, although the political situation of the country is different this time compared to that of the last two councils.

The last two AL councils were held in 2016 and 2019, and they each took place after the national elections in 2014 and 2018, respectively. But this time, the council was held a year before the national election. Another point to note is that the main opposition camp, BNP, appears to have woken up out of a political hibernation, displaying its organisational strength on the streets. So, the new committee of the ruling party is set to face a double challenge – preparing for election 2023 and politically countering the BNP movement.

In the political arena, the popular perception is that the Awami League is more organised, stronger and more successful when it is the opposition. Starting from the Six-Point Movement of the 1960s, which was the precursor to the 1971 Liberation War, to forcing the BNP government to introduce a constitutional caretaker government provision in 1996, the now-ruling Awami League has historically been seen as a strong, formidable, and vocal opposition on the streets.

Read more

Mahfuz Anam writes: From Bangabandhu to Sheikh Hasina

But now the question is whether the AL, as a ruling party, is capable of countering the opposition camp's campaign and preparing for the upcoming election at the same time. This may prove difficult given that the party has become used to smooth sailing and calm waters over its 14 consecutive years in office, during which it has successfully managed to stifle any opposition.

It is a well-accepted maxim that parties weaken organisationally with long stints in power. And that holds true for the ruling Awami League. Yes, it is true that the opposition could not put up a strong enough challenge after the January 5, 2014 election and till June of this year. To be more specific, one could even say that it was not the ruling party but the government which was successful in tackling the opposition. That is why we often hear that bureaucrats run the show, not politicians.

On the other hand, with the Awami League in office for 14 years, its grassroots leaders and workers enjoyed a free run because of the opposition camp's organisational weakness. They indulged themselves in other matters (particularly rent seeking), because there was hardly anyone from the opposition to challenge them on the field. And it is no secret that the Awami League General Secretary, Obaidul Quader, told his party leaders and workers to "save the party" by quitting the practice of "exchanging money for positions in local-level committees."

As the AL relied on administration and law enforcers to counter the opposition's campaign on the streets, the party men let loose. So, while the government became stronger, the ruling party did not stay in step. Rather, AL's grassroots leaders and activists have now become more divided. Intra-party conflict has become rampant. Distance between ministers and lawmakers, lawmakers and district leaders and local Awami League leaders have widened.

It may sound like an exaggeration, but one need only look at the fact that more than a hundred people were killed centring the union council elections of 2021, with most of them belonging to the ruling party itself, due to intra-party feuds.

Read more

How will Awami League tackle the run-up to the election?

Before the polls, the party announced that rebel candidates who work against the party would be expelled. And many were expelled but before the council. But it is also said that there was a general amnesty granted to those party men. No doubt, this concession was made keeping in mind the next general election and the opposition's campaign. But, will those who revolted once or defamed Bangabandhu or tarnished the image of the government or the party bring any good for the Awami League? Most importantly, how do the survivors of their rebellion view this general amnesty? Could it further widen the prevailing intra-party rift?

The current AL committee is almost unchanged from the previous one, with only a few reshuffles. But when the party, or more appropriately the government, is going through the toughest time of its recent history due to allegations of corruption, the spillover effects of the Russia-Ukraine war, a grim post-Covid economic situation and the opposition's diligent campaign, would it be able to overcome the crises simply by relying on the old guard?

Any new council brings some changes to the party in order to reorganise it. But this time, the ruling party appears to want to rely on its old faithfuls to face the upcoming challenges. Of course, only time will tell how far they can go relying on its old stalwarts. One thing is clear: the ruling party is passing through a very critical time on many fronts, and a slip, any slip on any front, would prove very costly indeed.

Mohammad Al-Masum Molla is deputy chief reporter at The Daily Star.

In the run-up to the national election, the international community is showing increasing interest in Bangladesh, which is due to the prevailing geopolitical landscape as well as its prospect of becoming a larger economy in the coming years. The country is going to graduate from the Least Developed Country (LDC) to the Developing Country category in 2026 by fulfilling the criteria based on per capita income, human asset index, and economic vulnerability index. It is currently implementing Sustainable Development Goals and has made progress in many areas compared to its peers.

Bangladesh's economic success has been due to its relatively steady growth compared to many developing countries. In the pre-Covid era, the average growth of the economy was over six percent for about a decade. But starting in early 2020 and after the Ukraine war in February 2022, the economy experienced some dampening, leading to slower growth. Still, while in FY2020 the GDP growth was 3.45 percent, it went up to 6.03 percent during FY2023. With accelerated growth, there has also been social progress. The poverty rate has declined, and so have child and maternal mortality, while life expectancy has increased. Bangladesh now aspires to be an upper middle-income country by 2031 and a developed country by 2041.

Read more

Are individual districts falling behind, while Bangladesh develops as a whole?

Often, the growth story is linked to the so-called stability narrative. It is claimed that since there are no political disturbances from opposition parties, the government could succeed in navigating the country forward.

Ironically, under the shadow of stability, the quality of economics and politics has been compromised. Economic growth has not been coupled with the expected outcomes. Urgent issues such as job creation for the youth, domestic resource mobilisation, efficient public expenditure, and higher private investment need more attention. Inequality continues to rise. The latest Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) 2022 reveals that the Gini coefficient has increased. This implies that the rise in per capita income has not been distributed evenly across the population. And shocks such as the pandemic, natural disasters and inflationary pressure continue to push poor and low-income households further behind.

The manifestation of inequality is the fast-growing number of the superrich in Bangladesh. Wealth creation is good but only with an even distribution. Moreover, not all of this wealth is earned, as the wealthy include loan defaulters, beneficiaries of undue government support, and rentseekers.

Higher growth has also not created enough jobs. The Labour Force Survey (LFS) 2022 indicates that average unemployment has declined from 4.2 percent in 2016-17 to 3.6 percent in 2022. But the definition of unemployment is based on the conventional definition of the International Labour Organization's (ILO) unrealistic benchmark, which considers a person employed if that person has worked even an hour in a week. Moreover, unemployment among the young population is much higher than the national average. The LFS 2022 has not revealed the youth unemployment rate yet. However, the youth unemployment rate was 10.6 percent in the LFS 2016-17.

Read more

‘Louha tribhuj’ and the political economy of development

Despite stability, private investment has not been energised for long. And stability has not reduced unpredictability. On average, private investment has been hovering around 24 percent of GDP, which is inadequate for a growing economy. Due to low domestic private investment, there is slow foreign direct investment (FDI). Despite the fact that the government has been trying to attract FDI through favourable policies, there is still a lack of enthusiasm. Though Bangladesh is a growing economy, and the market size is expected to grow, it is yet to become a production hub for international manufacturers. The government has allocated land for special economic zones to both private and foreign investors, but the progress has generally been slow. Ease of doing business must be ensured by improving infrastructure, removing red-tapism, ensuring policy clarity, adopting technology, and improving human resource quality.

Stability has protected the nexus between capital and political power. Massive conflicts of interest prevail in the system since many policymakers have stakes in fiscal, monetary, trade and other sectoral policies. Many in the periphery of political power have also been rehabilitated and rewarded. Hence, they do not want any changes (or disturbances) in this stability. Of course, democracy would require accounting of all unearned money and transparency of public expenditure.

The unique location in the Bay of Bengal, coupled with its economic rise, has increased Bangladesh's importance in the region. Our stability has been supported by some international partners. As such, Bangladesh has been conducting a balancing act between two competing countries, China and India, quite well. Both China and India are important trading partners and have provided us with loans of various sizes. Naturally, they have an active interest in Bangladesh.

Read more

Five concerns that the FY2024 budget fails to address

Bangladesh's geographical position has also increased its geostrategic significance for the US as the latter aims to contain Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific region. The current US position is to deal with Bangladesh-related issues through the prism of India. Stability is important for the US, too, but not at the cost of democracy. The US has made this clear in its recent policies, which have been geared towards promoting democracy in Bangladesh.

Additionally, the EU Election Exploratory Mission is currently visiting Bangladesh. They will undertake an assessment of the political environment and electoral framework, in close partnership and consultation with all stakeholders.

These developed countries are important stakeholders as Bangladesh's economy is connected to them through trade, remittances, investment, education, science and technology, and much more. Therefore, it is natural that they would have a keen interest in Bangladesh's politics and election administration.

But, ideally, this should not have been the case. Bangladesh should have been capable of holding an acceptable, high-quality national election on its own. Unfortunately, the credibility of the past two general elections has been questioned. The stability of power has probably been consolidated, but democracy has weakened. A transition to democracy and the nurturing of the democratic process will be painful and difficult. And the upcoming polls will be a test for Bangladesh to prove its capability and willingness to hold a high-quality election that will not be questioned within or outside the country. A democratic culture is crucial for sustaining the economic growth the country has achieved so far, and for distributing the benefits of this growth among all citizens of the country.

Dr Fahmida Khatun is executive director at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) and non-resident senior fellow of the Atlantic Council. Views expressed in this article are the author's own.

Picking a comparatively new face for Jhalakathi-2 and attacks on the candidate have hampered the BNP's election campaign in the constituency, comprising Sadar and Nalchity upazilas.

The party also has to deal with a controversy over the role of the contender's father in the 1971 Liberation War.

The candidate -- Zeeba Amina Khan -- will vie with an Awami League heavyweight, Industries Minister Amir Hossain Amu, in the December 30 polls.

Amu is criticised for not keeping in touch with the voters, said locals, adding that he would also have to face their anti-incumbency sentiments. 

However, the AL is vigorously campaigning on his behalf.

Visiting different areas of Sadar and Nalchity upazilas on Monday, The Daily Star correspondents saw AL leaders and activists conducting electioneering, using megaphones, holding rallies and bringing out processions. AL posters were seen hung almost everywhere.

In a sharp contrast, a district BNP office was found locked and only a few posters of its nominee were seen.

 "There were [BNP] posters in some areas of the town, but those were torn down. However, nothing will stop the BNP [from winning] here. It is waiting for the right time to get on the ground and campaign," said a party supporter in front of the office.

Monirul Islam Nupur, general secretary of Jhalakathi BNP, said they were not being able to campaign properly due to "repeated attacks on our candidate by Awami League men".

Alleged Chhatra League and Jubo League men attacked the motorcade of Zeeba on December 13. The BNP leaders and activists came under another attack the same day when they went to the Returning Officer's Office to lodge a complaint.

A similar attack took place in Nalchity two days later, Nupur said.

"Jhalakathi is a BNP stronghold. If we can cast votes freely until noon [on the voting day], we will win," he told The Daily Star.

After restoration of democracy in 1991, the BNP won in the constituency twice, the Jatiya Party once and Amu thrice (uncontested in 2014 and in bi-polls in 2000).

This time, the BNP had initially fielded Israt Sultana Elen Bhutto, an ex-MP, as its candidate but later nominated Zeeba, a member of the party's central executive committee.

The change came following demands by some local party leaders, who said Bhutto maintained no contacts with the voters in the last 10 years, said party sources.

Asked whether there was any division within the party over the candidate, Nupur said, "We all are united for the restoration of democracy. Bhutto will also join the campaign soon."

Another BNP leader, wishing anonymity, said they were facing difficulties as Zeeba was comparatively a new face. Besides, Bhutto used to get strong support from her upazila, Nalchity.

Amu and Zeeba are both from Sadar upazila.

The AL and its front organisations in the district denied the allegations and blamed BNP's internal conflict for the attacks.

Khan Saifullah Panir, general secretary of Jhalakathi AL, claimed they were getting good response from the voters.

He also said the BNP fielded a "daughter of a Razakar" and people would not vote for her.

On Amu being “aloof” from the voters, he said, "Amu comes to his constituency more than any other central leader of other areas and keeps a close contact with the people."

ZEEBA'S FATHER

Dulal Saha, former deputy commander of Bangladesh Muktijoddha Sangsad in Jhalakathi, alleged that Zeeba's father Akhter Uddin Ahmed was a Muslim League leader and he worked against the Liberation War.

Akhter was a member of AM Malik's cabinet in 1971.

"He fled the area after the war and went to Saudi Arabia via Pakistan," added Dulal, also an adviser to the Jatiya Samajtantrik Dal central committee.

He said the Muktijoddha Sangsad of Jhalakathi in 2012 had sent a list of Razakars and other Pakistani collaborators to the International Crimes Tribunal. Akhter was named in the list, he said.

"As a freedom fighter, I can't accept the BNP's decision to field the daughter of anti-liberation person," he added.

Speaking to The Daily Star over phone on Monday, Zeeba said her father was not an "anti-liberation element". She said her father became a member of the AM Malek cabinet "to ensure security of the people".

Insisting that her father did not commit any crimes, Zeeba claimed that he got general amnesty declared by the Bangabandhu administration after the war.

According to records, out of 37,000 people sent to jail on charges of collaborating with the enemy, about 26,000 were freed following the amnesty declared on November 30, 1973.

Zeeba claimed that her father had been in Bangladesh until 1974.

It has been a year since the new Election Commission (EC) was constituted according to a law that has stipulated the qualifications of the chief election commissioner (CEC) and other commissioners, as well as their recruitment process – although the law itself is not above controversy. Since the new EC's appointment, the government and the ruling party have been relentlessly trying to pursue and convince everyone within the country as well as the interested international observers that this institution has the capacity and authority to conduct all elections in Bangladesh independently, ensuring fairness.

However, the functioning and the activities of the new EC, including the election of the new president, local government (zilla parishad) elections and a few parliamentary by-elections during the last one year, have been the least convincing of that idea. The lone issue where the commission has proven its resolve is its tireless but irrational push for procuring Electronic Voting Machines (EVM), even in the middle of a severe economic strain that the nation has been facing. It appeared to be an attempt to please the ruling Awami League, which had been insisting on using EVMs instead of paper ballots in the next parliamentary election until they, too, accepted the reality that there was no money for it.

Read more

A citizen’s manifesto for Election Commission

Putting this EVM debate aside, let's look at the records of the elections the new EC has presided over so far. It must be noted that the EC's firm handling of the botched by-election to Gaibandha-5 constituency on October 12, 2022 showed some encouraging bravery on its part, when it suspended voting amid widespread irregularities four hours after it started. Those irregularities included people either illegally supporting or forcing voters to cast ballots, polling agents wearing clothes bearing the symbol of their nominees, and illegal entry into restricted rooms. CEC Kazi Habibul Awal and his fellow commissioners watched all these violations taking place from the EC office, Nirbachan Bhaban, in Dhaka, hundreds of kilometres away on big monitors through CCTV feeds.

Though the Awami League leadership questioned the EC's decision, they promptly argued that the decision proved the EC had always been in control of elections in the country and the BNP's demand for a poll-time caretaker government was unjustified. The EC, however, ditched the CCTV project to monitor elections real time in all subsequent elections citing lack of resources, which only requires a fraction of the highly ambitious and exorbitantly expensive EVMs. Reports of widespread irregularities and malpractices in the recently held by-elections in Brahmanbaria, Bogura and Chapainawabganj were simply overlooked by the EC, which was a complete reversal of Gaibandha in 2022.

One of the worst failures of the EC, however, was not investigating the alleged disappearance of a candidate in Brahmanbaria and his agent. The alleged victim, Asif Ahmed, later told journalists that members of the ruling party were the people who would be able to explain his mysterious disappearance. The EC, however, chose to look away.

Before that, the disappearance of a contestant ahead of election day was unheard of in any election in the country. There are considerable concerns among observers and opposition parties that enforced disappearances for a shorter term could be a new tactic to be deployed in the coming general election. After all, from what the past experiences show, victims of enforced disappearance get so traumatised that they never dare to speak about their ordeals.

Read more

Top Quote!

If these failures do not make one realise the new EC's inability to rise above partisan bias and its subservience to the government of the day, look at its latest goof-up in the election process for the new president. It's the question of following the procedure and its own rules. The election schedule announced by the EC stated the date for withdrawal of nomination papers to be February 14, 2023 till 4pm. But the returning officer, CEC Kazi Habibul Awal, declared the lone contestant and the ruling party Awami League nominee, Md Shahabuddin, elected on February 13. Nobody is suggesting that the president-elect would have pulled out of the race at that stage, but the question of complying with its own time frame by the EC is not a trivial matter. The EC and returning officers are bound by the schedule, even if the election is uncontested. As the Representation of the People Order (RPO) provides the basic guiding principles for all elections in the country, strict abidance of the schedule is quite crucial.

What prompted such a technical but legally crucial failure on the EC's part? Doesn't it reflect badly on their competence? Was it their excitement for having an uncontested election for the top job of the republic? If ignoring election rules was not the result of negligence of its duty, the only other explanation that comes to mind is partisan behaviour.

Regaining public confidence and trust in the Election Commission, which have been systematically destroyed by two previous commissions, is undoubtedly a tough task. Unfortunately, it seems the current EC, too, is failing us miserably.

Kamal Ahmed is an independent journalist. His Twitter handle is @ahmedka1