Law Minister Anisul Huq today said there is no bar for BNP Chairperson Khaleda Zia to engage in politics, but she cannot contest the elections under the constitution as she is convicted and sentenced to imprisonment in two cases.

"There is no condition in her [Khaleda's] release order [saying] that she cannot do politics. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has suspended her jail sentence under section 401 of the Code of Criminal Procedure (CrPC) on health grounds as her physical condition was poor. She [Khaleda] is an independent person and therefore, there is no bar to her being involved in politics," he said.

The law minister, however, said as per Article 66 of the constitution, if any person is convicted and sentenced to imprisonment for two years or more than two years for any moral turpitude, he or she cannot participate in any election within five years after serving the jail sentence.

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Govt decides to release Khaleda

Anisul made the remark while talking to reporters after attending as chief guest an orientation programme organised for newly appointed assistant judges by Judicial Administration Training Institute (JATI) in Dhaka. Khaleda Zia has been convicted and sentenced to 10 years' imprisonment in the Zia Orphanage Trust corruption case and to seven years' imprisonment in Zia Charitable Trust corruption case.

That the BNP chief Khaleda Zia would not be directly involved in her party's activities or politics has been a moot point since February 2018, when she was jailed on corruption charges. BNP's failed movement to release Khaleda from jail seemed to further ensure that her days in politics had indeed come to an end – although the matter has made headlines recently, thanks to the contradictory comments made by the ruling Awami League leaders. With the next parliamentary election less than a year away, the matter has understandably gained much attention.

Khaleda Zia's legal rights notwithstanding, the BNP, which is effectively the main opposition camp in Bangladesh, smells a rat in all this. Party insiders suggest that the ruling party is intentionally reviving the issue as a topic of debate. The ruling party leaders, on their part, counter that they have no intention of bringing the issue to the fore, but have just explained what is written in the executive order on the basis of which the 77-year-old BNP chief walked out from jail on health grounds.

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Debate if Khaleda can do Politics: Her health more pressing question

The debate on whether Khaleda could come back to politics began when senior Awami League lawmaker Sheikh Fazlul Karim Selim said on January 26 that she had been released from prison "with an undertaking" not to get involved in politics. It took a new turn when Law Minister Anisul Huq and Agriculture Minister Abdur Razzaque said she could indeed make a comeback to the country's political scene, but not contest elections, only to be countered by Information Minister Hasan Mahmud and Road Transport and Bridges Minister Obaidul Quader.

Amid this debate, the BNP has decided to be extra cautious. With the election round the corner, any mistake could cost them dearly as the party has been out of power for three consecutive terms. In the last two elections, they took different approaches that brought them the same outcome: nothing.

There are at least four possible scenarios for which the BNP suspects the Awami League has intentionally revived the Khaleda Zia issue.

First, the BNP has been rather successful in their street campaign to push its 10-point charter of demands, including a general election under a non-partisan interim administration. Many were sceptical about the party's organisational strength to wage any such campaign. Many even mocked the party for thinking of a campaign on the streets. But the BNP proved everyone wrong and has been running a successful campaign with wide public support, challenging the ruling party with huge rallies. The recent discussion about Khaleda, according to BNP insiders, is to throw the party off its game; the street campaign will be defused as leaders would get busy talking about the party chief.

Second, there is a "pressure" on the government to hold an inclusive and credible election. Without the participation of the opposition BNP, the next election would not be an inclusive one. So, the issue of Khaleda's engagement in active politics could be a ploy to get the BNP to come to the table for talks.

Third, the party fears that if Khaleda Zia becomes active in politics, the government may suspend the executive order that allowed the former premier to get out of jail. The government might claim that since Khaleda is active in politics, she must be in good health, and hence must go back to jail.

Fourth, since Khaleda has been in jail, her elder son and the party's Acting Chairman Tarique Rahman has been at the helm of the party. The current campaign has also been taking place under his leadership. Those who don't like Tarique's leadership within the BNP, however, have no option but to go along.

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Protest Programmes: BNP plans to get back momentum

The party, so long as it is under Tarique's leadership, is adamant about not joining the polls under the Sheikh Hasina government. So, if that section of leaders brought Khaleda back to politics, it would create enough of a buzz for the old guards to rally around the former prime minister. That would challenge Tarique's leadership within the party and, at the same time, it would be possible to send Khaleda back to jail, and split the party and bring a section of the party to the election to make it inclusive.

Whatever the case may be, the BNP leadership has decided to remain quiet for now. What is almost certain, however, is that in politics, one does not get a second chance to seize the initiative. And the BNP appears to have lost its chance. The party leaders could well have tested the waters with a countermove soon after the law and agriculture ministers' comments. What if they had mentioned that Khaleda would speak to the press shortly? Or that she would address a public meeting remotely from her home? What would have happened? At best, she would have had half an hour that would be the most covered and most watched news event in quite some time. At worst, she would be sent to jail and the BNP would have another reason to take to the streets with a stronger resolve for the 10-point demand. What is certain is that it would have tested the ruling Awami League's sincerity or resolve.

The BNP's current risk-averse behaviour is not conducive to running a successful campaign. Electoral politics needs quite a lot more pluck.

Mohammad Al-Masum Molla is chief reporter at The Daily Star.

In the book The Bottom Billion, Paul Collier, a professor of development economics at Oxford University, introduced the concept of "Conflict Trap," wherein a nation becomes entangled in a recurring cycle of violence, leading to a prolonged state of poverty and under-development.

Meanwhile, the "spirit of independence" is not a collection of mere slogans and rhetoric; it encompasses democracy, pluralism, and a commitment to building an inclusive state. Despite the fact that almost every individual in Bangladesh upholds these principles, a split along this line has unfortunately been nurtured for political and personal gains.

The political parties, state institutions, professional bodies, and civil societies have now aligned themselves with either Awami League or BNP, creating a stark division across the entire nation. This Conflict Trap, if not mitigated, can eventually transform the country into a failed state. 

BNP and its coalition partners are presently engaged in a countrywide demonstration calling for elections to be conducted under a caretaker government. What is the likelihood of their success? 

Collier's research has revealed a connection between per capita income, government structure, and the probability of widespread protests. His hypothesis suggests that in autocratic regimes, the probability of popular movement increases with higher per capita income since protesters don't have to worry about their day-to-day livelihood. Conversely, in democracies, mass protests can occur even with a low per capita income, as the risk of arrests and repression is lower in such environments.

Under that hypothesis, in Bangladesh, it is anticipated that protests will primarily be driven by the younger generations of the middle and upper-middle classes, encompassing students, unemployed youth, professional bodies, and labour unions. But today, the young generation is clearly averse to politics due to the absence of a viable alternative capable of bringing desired change in the country. 

BNP is encountering difficulties in its protests, mainly attributed to the lack of active engagement from the general population. If the party fails to garner enough support for its movement, it may encounter a significant existential setback.

Elections under authoritarian regimes, Collier mentioned in one of his lectures, can be vulnerable to manipulation through different tactics such as buying votes, tampering with ballot boxes, manipulating vote counts and using violence to intimidate citizens. Opposition leaders may also be disqualified from elections based on allegations of corruption or involvement in violence, potentially leading to their imprisonment. 

Given the present political situation in Bangladesh, an election lacking the participation of BNP, even if conducted fairly, may not gain recognition from the voters and the international community. This could position the BNP as victims in the eyes of the people, consequently eliciting their sympathy and potentially fuelling the escalation of protests. A prolonged movement carries the risk of destabilising the country, leading to significant social and economic repercussions.

The imposition of economic sanctions, even on a limited scale, could inflict devastating consequences on garment exports, resulting in the loss of millions of jobs. While I believe the US and EU may refrain from taking such a path due to the impact on the most vulnerable, the mere perception of this threat has the potential to severely affect an already fragile economy. 

The combined outcome of all those can lead to adverse effects on the dollar's exchange rate, remittance inflows, and foreign direct investments. Job losses and soaring commodity prices may push people into poverty, prompting them to join mass protests against the government. This grim scenario could evolve into a nightmarish situation for a future government.

Since both the major parties face serious setbacks if the conflict continues, it is for their own interests that they must sit together for a mutually agreed solution. A functional democracy thrives on a harmonious and trusting relationship between the ruling party and the opposition. Under the current situation, two conditions must be met for a resolution: firstly, removing the zero sum dynamics from politics, that is the losing party should not face a prospect of losing everything, and secondly, a process of conducting a free fair and inclusive election.  

To eradicate the zero-sum dynamic from the political landscape, the late economist Dr Akbar Ali Khan advocated for the implementation of the Proportional Representation system in the electoral process in Bangladesh. In this system, the allocation of seats in a legislative body is determined by the proportion of total votes each political party reaps. Statistical data indicates that in a comprehensive and just election, both parties consistently secure nearly equal numbers of votes. This ensures that each party has a fair opportunity to succeed in an unbiased election, and in the event of defeat, both possess equal prospects of forming a strong opposition with approximately 30 percent of MPs in the parliament-strong enough to counteract any subsequent unjust oppressive measures by the government.

The impartiality of an election relies heavily on the individuals involved in the actual process rather than on the Election Commission (EC). Individuals having conflicts of interest with the government must not be engaged with the process. Instead, individuals from retired judicial, civil, military, and police services with experience in conducting elections and not affiliated with any political party can be appointed to take on the roles of returning officers, assistant returning officers, magistrates, and commanding officers of law enforcement bodies. 

Presiding officers can be sourced from the officers of the private banks and non-government organisations. Small law enforcement units deployed in the polling centres can be drawn from non-officer ranks of the armed forces, border guards and police force commanded by junior commissioned officers (JCOs). Junior ranks still represent least politicised segments within the disciplined forces. Additionally, the involvement of cadets from the Bangladesh National Cadet Corps can contribute to maintaining discipline within the urban polling centres. 

Since overhauling the electoral system and political parties to realign with the new structure necessitates some time, the election date may be shifted to accommodate all these accordingly. To resolve the Conflict Trap, all the stakeholders must convene and collectively reach a mutually agreed-upon decision.

Saifur Rahman is a senior IT specialist and certified professional, Australian Computer Society.

Views expressed in this article are the author's own.

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After Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina said BNP Chairperson Khaleda Zia needs to return to jail first for a court to accept her application for treatment abroad, some experts said the government could still let her go abroad.

There is an example of such a thing happening in the past, they said, adding that legal barriers are being put with political intent.

Senior human rights lawyer ZI Khan Panna told The Daily Star that in 1979, president Ziaur Rahman allowed Jatiya Samajtantrik Dal leader ASM Abdur Rob, who was in jail serving a 10-year sentence at the time, to travel to West Germany for treatment.

Though the Appellate Division rejected Khaleda's bail plea, suspension of her sentence and her release from jail were made by an executive order without the court's consultation. It is only a matter of government decision, he added.

The government can make executive decisions for the greater good of the state, or even of individuals, he said. "If the government wants, it can let her go abroad right away."

Former cabinet secretary Ali Imam Majumdar said, "First, the government can declare Khaleda Zia's home or hospital cabin as a sub-jail. Then when Khaleda applies for bail, the attorney-general's office will not oppose it. Once she gets bail, there should be no bar on her travel abroad."

According to a Supreme Court lawyer, who requested anonymity, the government can issue a similar executive order letting her leave the country as per section 401 (1) of the Code of Criminal Procedures, which states: "When any person has been sentenced to punishment for an offence, the Government may at any time without conditions or upon any conditions which the person sentenced accepts, suspend the execution of his sentence or remit the whole or any part of the punishment to which he has been sentenced."

The government can allow this without resorting to legal complications, and it can even waive her prison sentence, the lawyer says.

In a recent interview with Voice of America, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina said Khaleda would have to return to jail and get permission from the court if she is to travel out of the country.

The government on March 25, 2020, issued an executive order suspending Khaleda's prison sentence and releasing her from jail on the condition that she stay in her Gulshan house and not leave the country.

The BNP chief landed in jail on February 8, 2018, after a special court sentenced her to five years in prison on corruption charges. The High Court later raised the sentence to 10 years.

The BNP chairperson's family members fear that her condition can deteriorate anytime as she has liver cirrhosis, arthritis, diabetes, kidney diseases, and problems in her lung, heart and eyes.

She remains admitted to the Evercare Hospital since August 9. In recent days, she was taken to the coronary care unit three times.

Meanwhile, Law Minister Anisul Huq yesterday told a reporter that the decision on Khaleda's treatment abroad will be made Today.

On September 5, Khaleda's brother Shamim Iskandar submitted an application to the home ministry, seeking her unconditional release and permission to take her abroad for physiotherapy at an "advanced medical centre" on an urgent basis to save her life.

In the letter, Iskandar wrote that modern treatment for his sister's liver and heart problems is not available in Bangladesh.

The home ministry forwarded the letter to the law ministry.

BNP this morning staged a three-hour token hunger strike in the capital demanding its Chairperson Khaleda Zia's unconditional release from jail and advanced treatment abroad.

The programme formally began around 11:20am in front of the party's Nayapaltan central office.

Photo: Amran Hossain

As part of its countrywide programme, BNP's Dhaka south and north city units organised the programme, attended by party senior leaders, including secretary general Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir.

BNP leaders and activists holding banners, festoons and placards joined the programme.

The token hunger ended at 2:00pm.

Photo: Amran Hossain

Besides, a similar programme was being held in all district towns and metropolitan cities across the country.

On October 9, BNP held rallies across the country, including in front of its central office in the capital, to press home the demand.

BNP Chairperson Khaleda Zia, the 78-year-old former prime minister, has been undergoing treatment at Evercare Hospital in Dhaka under the supervision of a 15-member medical board since August 9.

The medical board at a press conference recently recommended that she be urgently sent to a multidisciplinary centre abroad as there are now no treatment options available for her in Bangladesh.

Khaleda has been suffering from various ailments, including liver cirrhosis, arthritis, diabetes, kidney, lung, heart, and eye problems.

On September 5, Khaleda's brother Shamim Iskandar submitted an application to the government to take her abroad for treatment, but it was turned down.