In 1978, a book edited by Guy Hermet, Richard Rose and Alain Rouquie was published with an interesting title, Elections without Choice. The book drew some attention soon after its publication, but little did we know that, decades later, the notion of "elections without choice" would become so relevant to the world in general but more so for Bangladesh. As the country is heading towards an exercise that the incumbent is calling an election, it is imperative that we understand what is in the making.

The edited volume of Elections without Choice was an outcome of a research project initiated by the Committee on Political Sociology, composed of the International Political Science Association and the International Sociological Association. The editors quite rightly noted that political scientists deliberately avoid discussing non-competitive elections, because those elections do not meet the fundamental criterion of a liberal democracy. Not only did they underscore the need for understanding non-competitive elections, but also insisted that such elections are important in tracing the trajectory of each country.

Read more

Placing dummies as alternatives disenfranchises voters

The book was published at a time when the world was witnessing a gradual shift towards democracy, one country at a time. The Carnation Revolution in 1974 in Portugal and the death of Francisco Franco in 1975 in Spain started a wave, identified as the "Third Wave of Democracy" by Samuel Huntington in 1991. In the early days of democratisation, promoted by Western countries, it was assumed that an election was a key indicator of the political liberalisation process.

In the 1990s, with the demise of the Soviet Union and the fall of the Berlin Wall, democracy proliferated globally. It was believed that democratic regimes would be the norm and there could be only a few holdouts of autocratic regimes. But within less than a decade, two features became evident. The first one was that elections by themselves do not demonstrate democratisation, because authoritarian regimes also hold elections that are manipulated. The second feature was the emergence of a new kind of regime, with some apparent democratic traits but which are essentially autocratic; they were called hybrid regimes.

The 2014 election was boycotted by the opposition, yet strategies such as packing the Election Commission, or harassing the opposition, or changing electoral rules were used by the incumbent. In the 2018 election, another tool was added—keeping opposition candidates off the ballot—and this was done both by confining leaders and cancelling their nominations on flimsy grounds, making the candidates spend time at the courthouse, which has not been helpful to the candidates.

Subsequently, these regimes, which often hold elections and win at ease, were described as "electoral authoritarianism." These regimes tend to hold regular elections, but these elections are engineered in a fashion that opposition parties have little to no chance to win. In both closed autocracy and hybrid regimes, these exercises are essentially "elections without choice." Consequently, the attention of political scientists and observers shifted to the "quality" of elections.

Evidence mounted in the 2000s that autocrats and rulers of the hybrid regimes manipulate elections. Election manipulation was not a new phenomenon. However, from the 1970s through the 1990s, manipulation of elections was easily detectable: there was blatant rigging, which included capturing polling booths on election day and weapon-wielding party loyalists scaring voters away from polling stations and stuffing the ballot boxes.

But as these hybrid regimes emerged and the despots needed to have some semblance of legitimacy to continue their rule, rigging of an election took a different route. This is the period of regression of democracy, often described as "democratic backsliding," which political scientist Nancy Bermeo defined as "the state-led debilitation or elimination of any of the political institutions that sustain an existing democracy." These political institutions, Bermeo reminded us in an essay, include "all the institutions that enable people to formulate and signify preferences and then have them weighed by their elected representatives."

Two years after Bermeo's essay was published, a seminal book by Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt published in 2018, titled How Democracies Die, unequivocally stated that sometimes democracy dies with a bang, with coups, quickly and forcefully. But lately it happens slowly, incrementally; "democratic backsliding today begins at the ballot box." The would-be autocrats rise through the elections, and then they change the rules of the game. Levitsky and Ziblatt use the analogy of a football game. "To consolidate power, the would-be authoritarians must capture the referees, sideline at least some of the other side's star players, and rewrite the rules of the game to lock in their advantage, in effect tilting the playing field against their opponent." When they talk of a referee, in the political context, who are they referring to? "These include the judicial system, law enforcement bodies, and intelligence, tax and regulatory agencies," they write.

Election, in a tilted field, is already rigged in such a manner that it can deliver only one result—a victory for the incumbent. The manipulation of elections, Bermeo told us, is one of the three key features of democratic backsliding. But such manipulation is not like how the classical autocrats used to do it—blatantly. Instead, these are "strategic manipulation," which includes "a range of actions aimed at tilting the electoral playing field in favor of incumbents." Bermeo provides a list of these actions: "keeping opposition candidates off the ballot," "packing electoral commissions," "changing electoral rules to favor incumbents," and "harassing opponents." Usually, these are done "in such a way that the elections themselves do not appear fraudulent" and are intended to fool election observers and the international community.

Read more

How constitutional is the 15th amendment?

As for these practices, perhaps nobody else has identified them better than Nic Cheeseman and Brian Klaas. Their book, published in 2018, is titled How to Rig an Election. The name sounds like a manual. In some measures, it is so. Only that they have dissected the manual or the playbook of the autocrats drawing on elections around the world. Cheeseman and Klaas identified the leaders who go for rigging: "Leaders are most likely to try and stay in power when they believe that their presence is essential to maintain political stability; in cases when they are less committed to plural politics; when they have engaged in high-level corruption and/or human rights abuses; when they lack trust in rival leaders and political institutions; when they have been in power for a longer period of time; and when they control geostrategically important states with natural resources, effective security forces, weak institutions and high levels of distrust."

They looked at six strategies that autocrats use to manipulate elections: gerrymandering (shaping electoral constituencies to the incumbent's benefit), vote buying, repression of opposition, hacking the election, stuffing the ballot box, and playing the international community. Interestingly, while ballot box stuffing is the most effective strategy, considering the risk of exposure, often autocrats use other strategies ahead of the election to ensure a victory. This is how elections are held by autocratic regimes.

Since the 2014 election, none of these strategies have been in short supply in Bangladesh. That election was boycotted by the opposition, yet strategies such as packing the Election Commission, or harassing the opposition, or changing electoral rules were used by the incumbent. In the 2018 election, another tool was added—keeping opposition candidates off the ballot—and this was done both by confining leaders and cancelling their nominations on flimsy grounds, making the candidates spend time at the courthouse, which has not been helpful to the candidates.

Read more

How to judge the Election Commission’s performance

These have delivered victory, not only a hollow one but something more than that, if we borrow from Cheeseman and Klass: "so one sided as to beggar belief, exposing the ruling party to ridicule." The ruling Awami League has not, by any means, abandoned its 2014 and 2018 strategies, but instead has become further audacious. The violent crackdown on opposition since October 28, arrests of BNP leaders, convictions of BNP leaders and activists at lightning speed, and shutting down party offices are testimonies to the continuation of these strategies. They also show how referees have been captured.

But in search of a way to avoid the ridiculous situations of winning 153 seats unopposed in 2014 or winning 96 percent of seats with allies in 2018, and additionally to "play the international community," it has invented a new way called fielding "dummy candidates." The so-called 'dummies" are candidates who belong to the ruling party but are contesting the election as "independents" with the approval of the party. Besides, the smaller parties, "king's parties," and individuals who have been cajoled or coerced into participating in the election, thanks to state apparatuses, would like to run under the symbol of the ruling AL.

Ironically, these have not saved the party from being a subject of ridicule, but made it more embarrassing for it long before a single vote has been cast. Importantly, all these have laid bare that the ruling AL is moving towards an "election without choice."

Ali Riaz is distinguished professor of political science at Illinois State University in the US, non-resident senior fellow of the Atlantic Council, and president of the American Institute of Bangladesh Studies (AIBS). His forthcoming book is titled 'Pathways of Autocratization: The tumultuous journey of Bangladeshi politics.'

Views expressed in this comment are the author's own.

Follow The Daily Star Opinion on Facebook for the latest opinions, commentaries and analyses by experts and professionals. To contribute your article or letter to The Daily Star Opinion, see our guidelines for submission.

Chattogram Metropolitan Police has been preparing detailed lists of leaders holding posts in committees of the BNP and associated bodies. 

Following directives in a letter from the Police Headquarters, every police station in the port city has been working to that end, police officials said. The Daily Star has obtained a copy of the letter.

BNP leaders in the city alleged that police would lodge fake cases based on the list to arrest BNP men before the next national polls, slated for the end of next year or early 2024.

They said such actions would not deter them from toppling the Awami League government and bring about a caretaker government for a free and fair election.

CMP sources said that on July 17, a letter was sent to different police units from the headquarters asking them to gather details of leaders of the BNP and its wings including names, addresses, mobile numbers, NID numbers and their posts in various committees.

On July 21, the Special Branch of the CMP forwarded the letter, containing the format in which the lists would be made, to all police stations and asked them to submit details of the leaders within two days.

Senior CMP officials, however, said they have not received such letters.

Asked about the letter, CMP's SB Deputy Commissioner Monjur Morshed declined receiving it, saying, "I have no such information. We are not making any lists of BNP leaders, it's not true."

ASM Mahtab Uddin, additional commissioner (crime and operations) of CMP, said, "Nothing like this has happened … you'd better ask whoever you got the information from."

Preferring anonymity, an officer-in-charge of a police station said, "[Preparing] lists of BNP leaders and workers is not a new task. But this time, the leaders' details and NID numbers were asked to be added to the list."

Shahadat Hossain, convener of Chattogram Metropolitan BNP, said, "We are not afraid of the police anymore. They have been doing this for so long to oppress us and now they are doing it after seeing how our activists have been gaining in strength ahead of the next polls.

"We will continue our demonstrations against the government until we restore democracy. If police file cases against us, we will also lodge cases against the officers who will arrest BNP men in fake cases," he added.

BNP's Chattogram Divisional Coordinator Mahbubor Rahman Shamim said, "The country has turned into a police state. However, it is now impossible to demoralise our leaders and party workers by filing cases.

"Police may arrest our leaders and workers based on those lists, but we will always be on the street so that our rightful demands are met for the sake of our country," he added.

BNP leaders alleged that over 200 cases were lodged against thousands of activists of the BNP and its associate wings under the 16 police stations of CMP from 2018 to 2022. Of them, 140 cases were filed on charges of subversive activities, from September to November in 2018, said the party insiders.

Police so far arrested 200 people for the attack on police and the vandalism of a prison van in the Supreme Court area on January 30, said DMP Commissioner Asaduzzaman Mia yesterday.

“The attackers swooped on police in 'filmy style'. We are arresting the attackers after identifying them in footage run by the media,” said the commissioner in reply to a query regarding the number of arrests.

The DMP boss made the comments while inspecting the security arrangement at Amar Ekushey Bio Mela ground at Suhrawardy Udyan, reports our staff correspondent.

On January 30, a group of BNP men attacked a prison van and snatched two of their fellows from it in the Supreme Court area. The attackers also broke two rifles of policemen guarding the van.

It happened when the motorcade of BNP Chairperson Khaleda Zia was crossing the area.

Three cases have been filed with Ramna and Shahbagh police stations for assaulting police and vandalism of the prison van. Top BNP leaders accused in the cases include Ruhul Kabir Rizvi, Shawkat Mahmud, Asaduzzaman Ripon, Zainul Abedin Faruk, Mahbub Uddin Khokon, Habib-un-Nabi Khan Sohel and Shyama Obayed. 

The BNP supporters attacked police to create an unstable situation in the country and they were arresting the people involved, said the DMP boss.

Meanwhile, police have arrested 28 BNP leaders and activists, including a municipality mayor, in Narayanganj, Sylhet and Jessore.

Those held in Narayanganj were shown arrested in various old cases filed in connection with “sabotage attempts”, reports our Narayanganj correspondent.

Sarafatullah, inspector of Special Branch of Narayanganj police, said 19 people had been arrested in old cases. One was held at Siddhirganj, 10 at Sonargaon, six at Rupganj and two at Bandar Police Station.

Majharul Islam, inspector of Detective Branch of police in Narayanganj, said BNP leader and Mayor of Kanchan municipality Abul Bashar Badshah was also arrested late Saturday night.

Abdus Sattar, officer-in-charge of Siddhirganj Police Station, said Babul Prodan, president of Siddhirganj ward-9 BNP, was arrested the same night.

Shafiqul Islam, a sub-inspector of Narayanganj Sadar Model Police Station, said Masukul Islam Rajib, organising secretary of district BNP, was arrested at his Mission Para home yesterday afternoon.

Meanwhile, police foiled a procession brought out by Chhatra Dal in Golapganj municipality area of Sylhet yesterday and arrested five men from the spot, reports our correspondent in Sylhet.

The procession was brought out to welcome BNP Chairperson Khaleda Zia's Sylhet visit today.

The arrestees are: Sufian Ahmed Khan, joint organising secretary of the municipality unit BNP, Chhatra Dal activists Jahangir Ahmed, Rayhan Ahmed, Foyez Ahmed and Kamal Ahmed.

Jubel Ahmed, a leader of JCD Golapganj municipality unit, said police foiled the procession charging truncheons.

Witnesses said the JCD activists also attacked police with brick chunks.

Mir Mohammad Abu Naser, inspector (investigation) of Golapganj Police Station, said police arrested them to control the situation.

In Jessore, police arrested Jhenidah unit BNP organising Secretary MA Mazid last night while he was on his way to Dhaka.

Mazid, also the upazila chairman of Harinakundo in Jhenidah, was arrested at Jessore airport. He was accused of being involved in “subversive activities”, Azmal Huda, officer-in-charge of Jessore Kotwali Police Station, told our Jhenidah correspondent.

The disclosures of the Transparency International Bangladesh (TIB) vis-à-vis the assets of candidates contesting in the 12th parliamentary election cannot be called exactly sensational. Over the past couple of weeks, we have seen similar, if selected, dissections of the affidavits submitted by candidates to the Election Commission. But the TIB provides a broad, comparative overview of their assets, bringing into critical focus the state of politics—and politicians—in today's Bangladesh.

Read more

Turn candidates' halafnama into amalnama

For example, according to the TIB, the 2024 election is set to witness the highest number of candidates with movable or liquid assets of at least Tk 1 crore in recent history. From 274 in 2008 election and 522 in 2018 election, the number of such candidates has surged to 571 this time around. Unsurprisingly, the ruling Awami League has seen the highest surge: in 2008, 28 percent of its candidates had such wealth, which has now ballooned to 86.96 percent—constituting 235 of its 286 nominees. Moreover, the TIB report identified 18 candidates possessing assets worth over Tk 100 crore, and some possessing over Tk 200-300 crore. Some ministers and lawmakers have also seen astronomical increases in their wealth with percentages ranging from several hundred to thousands!

Read more

Corrupt candidates will only enable corruption

Unfortunately, the picture that has emerged of the financial health of candidates may only be the tip of the iceberg, as the TIB has only reviewed their movable or liquid assets, not real estates. Add to that the gross undervaluation of assets by some, presumably to evade taxes, and the tendency of not disclosing all assets, as in the case of a minister who allegedly concealed information about UK-based businesses valued at Tk 2,312 crore. All this is deeply troubling.

Read more

Politicians’ wealth surge and why nations fail

While having wealth itself cannot be reason enough to disqualify a candidate, the massive surge in their wealth as well as number raises critical concerns about the widening economic disparity in society, fair electoral representation, and corruption in politics. Affidavits submitted by the candidates should thus be thoroughly examined to check potential irregularities. Unfortunately, the relevant authorities, including the Election Commission, Anti-Corruption Commission, and National Board of Revenue, have yet to signal their readiness to do so. This must change. While one cannot expect much from an election that the opposition camp has already boycotted, these candidates, many among them potential lawmakers, have a big task at hands, and their honesty and integrity to serve the public must be judged for the sake of our future.

A local leader of Bangladesh Nationalist Party was killed allegedly in a bomb attack in Bagerhat's Rampal upazila yesterday, police said.

The dead is Khaza Mainuddin Akhter, 52. He was the organising secretary of Rampal upazila unit BNP.

“A group of unidentified miscreants, riding on a motorcycle, hurled a bomb on Mainuddin from behind around 7:30pm in a lane inside Bhoroshapur Bazar,” said Pankaj Chandra Roy, superintendent of police in Bagerhat, adding that they fled the scene immediately after the attack.

Locals rushed him to Khulna Medical College Hospital where duty doctors pronounced him dead, the SP said, adding that the situation of the area was under control and extra forces were deployed.

“No one has been arrested in this connection and police are yet to find any clue to the murder,” he also said.

The type of the bomb could not be confirmed, however, the eyewitnesses said it was a locally made crude bomb.

Talking to The Daily Star, President of Rampal upazila BNP Hafizur Rahman Tuhin demanded immediate arrest of the attackers.